Putin's target is the Ukrainian fortified belt

What Russia cannot win through war, it wants to be served on a platter through the pressure that US President Donald Trump can exert on Ukraine and America's European allies. At the top of Russian leader Vladimir Putin's wish list is the western part of Donetsk Oblast, which remains firmly in Ukrainian hands.

The British "Economist" writes that for him, it is not just symbolism that matters.

“The real prize is to force Ukraine to give up a strategically crucial ‘fortification belt,’ a 50-kilometer-long line encompassing four cities and several smaller towns that stands in the way not only of Russia’s goal of conquering all of Donbas, but also of its ability to threaten other regions,” the newspaper writes.

Work on the fortified belt began when Ukrainian forces wrested four cities from pro-Russian proxies in 2014. The belt stretches from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk in the north to Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka in the south. Andriy Zakharodynyuk, a former defense minister who now heads the Center for Defense Strategies, says that huge sums of money have been invested in military infrastructure and fortifications over the past decade. Slavyansk, which the Russians tried and failed to capture in 2022, and Kramatorsk are the main logistical hubs for Ukrainian forces.

The belt, a relatively urbanized area, densely packed with buildings and industrial facilities that themselves constitute a barrier, has been further reinforced with layers of wire, concrete, gravel, and concrete “dragon teeth.” After the fall of the city of Bakhmut and the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, additional efforts were made to build both passive fortifications, with bunkers and trenches forming a network of several kilometers from the front line to the back line, and active ones, such as minefields and tank obstacles, writes “The Economist”.

The main Russian military effort over the past 12 months has been the fight to capture Pokrovsk, a town about 65 kilometers southwest of the fortified belt. Yet despite some recent territorial gains, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, believes that an attempt to encircle and capture the fortified belt from there “would likely take several years.” Niko Lange, a former chief of staff at the German Defense Ministry, says that capturing the fortified belt would not only take years, but would also be extremely costly for Russia in terms of human casualties and resources.

The Economist points out that the loss of the fortified belt as a result of some deal with Putin is unthinkable for most Ukrainians. First of all, the idea that Ukraine could simply pull back its front line and rebuild its defenses is not feasible. As Lange points out, erecting new defensive positions would be enormously expensive and time-consuming, since the topography of the terrain on which they would have to be built is far less favorable.

The biggest fear is that the infrastructure of the fortified belt, if it fell into Russian hands, could essentially be turned against Ukraine and used as a springboard for further aggression.

In addition, according to the regional administration, more than 250.000 civilians, including around 18.000 children, still live in parts of Donetsk Oblast under Ukrainian control. Although Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are bastion cities, life continues there and there is a fairly developed military economy.

But the biggest fear, Zakharodnyuk says, is that the infrastructure of the fortified belt, if it fell into Russian hands, could essentially be turned against Ukraine and used as a springboard for further aggression. “Every settlement in the nearby areas, including Dnipropetrovsk, would be in enormous danger. The Russians know this very well.”

ISW agrees: “Ceding the remaining part of Donetsk Oblast would provide Russian forces with more favorable positions from which to attack Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.” Lange believes that capturing the fortified belt “would open an operational direction towards the rear of the city of Kharkov and towards the city of Dnipro on the banks of the Dnipro, and thus towards central Ukraine.”

For many Ukrainians, giving up the fortified belt without a fight would be tantamount to capitulation and betrayal of the sacrifices of their armed forces, according to the British newspaper.

"Few believe that Russia will abide by any commitments not to continue the war when it suits it. Nor is it likely that security guarantees that depend on Donald Trump's consistency and reliability will be considered adequate compensation," the newspaper writes.

However, Lange assessed that such security guarantees would be far more convincing if linked to Ukraine's current defensive positions, rather than if the fortified belt were handed over to the occupiers.