Moldova is holding parliamentary elections tomorrow that could have far-reaching consequences for its path to European Union membership, while the country also faces alleged Russian interference in its domestic politics.
Just days before the crucial vote, dozens of people were arrested for an alleged plan to organize “mass riots.”
President Maja Sandu, who called the elections the most important in the country's history, accused Moscow of waging a hybrid war through disinformation campaigns, illegal financing of political parties and vote buying.
The Bloomberg agency announced that it had access to documents that reveal extensive Russian plans to cause unrest and manipulate the election results.
The vote on September 28 could mark a crucial turning point: pro-Russian forces are seeking to disrupt the existing pro-European status quo, while the ruling majority of Maja Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is being called into question.
Situated between Ukraine and Romania, members of the EU and NATO, Moldova has become a geopolitical battleground between Western-oriented and pro-Moscow blocs.
These elections are being held less than a year after citizens narrowly voted to continue on their path to the EU in a referendum that the government said was rigged by Kremlin interference.
Documents seen by Bloomberg indicate that Russia has devised a plan to interfere in the upcoming elections and disrupt government efforts to keep the country on track for EU membership.
The agency says the multi-layered strategy was finalized in the spring and coordinated directly from the Kremlin. The goal, according to internal Russian plans, is to weaken the chances of Maja Sandu and her party, and ultimately remove her from power.
The tactics include recruiting Moldovans abroad, including those in Russia, to vote at polling stations in the EU and other countries, sending others to organize protests and waging a widespread disinformation campaign on social media, the documents show. Another key part of the plan by President Vladimir Putin's cabinet involves using compromising material to pressure public officials to disrupt the election process.
Bloomberg could not confirm whether Russia was implementing the plans toward the end of the election campaign in Moldova. However, two European officials familiar with the matter said it was “almost certain” that Moscow intended to implement most of them.
Meanwhile, Moldovan police have stepped up their crackdown on disinformation campaigns and vote-buying attempts. Last month, authorities officially requested the blocking of 443 TikTok accounts.
On Monday, security services launched an operation against what they say is a Russian plan to destabilize the elections, presidential adviser Stanislav Sekriru said. Authorities in Chisinau detained 74 people and conducted more than 250 searches across the country, dismantling a network suspected of operating with the support of Russia's GRU intelligence service, police said at a news conference. Most of those arrested, according to Moldova's chief prosecutor for organized crime, Victor Furtuna, had traveled to Serbia in an organized manner, where they were trained to cause unrest.
The Kremlin did not respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment. Russia has repeatedly said it does not interfere in foreign elections. During last year’s EU membership referendum and presidential vote, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman dismissed the accusations as “Russophobia,” which she described as “an essential component of the European project in Moldova.”
The question now is whether Moldova will continue on the path of European integration, having included the goal of membership in its constitution, or will it turn to Moscow at a time when Putin shows no signs of readiness to end the war against Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.
As a former Soviet republic, Moldova has a significant Russian-speaking minority among its 2,4 million inhabitants. The breakaway region of Transnistria is considered by the Council of Europe to be under Russian occupation, while the leader of the Gagauzia region has been convicted in a Moldovan court of illegally diverting Russian money to a political party.
“The Kremlin’s goal is clear: to conquer Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine and turn us into a springboard for hybrid attacks on the European Union,” Sandu told MEPs in Strasbourg on September 9. “That’s why these elections are so important. By defending them, we are protecting not only Moldova, but also regional security and stability.”
The EU has backed Moldova's membership bid, and French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the capital, Chisinau, in late August.
But many voters are more focused on economic issues in one of Europe's poorest countries. They are struggling with high inflation and have seen little progress on the government's promise to root out corruption.
Maja Sandu's PAS party has pledged to launch the EU accession process and secure access to much-needed funds after Moldova began membership talks last year. However, the latest polls show that PAS could lose its parliamentary majority, opening the door to a fragile coalition.
Opposition forces like the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc and the nominally pro-European Alternative alliance are attracting voters troubled by high prices, slow reforms and skepticism about closer ties with the EU.
One of the leaders of the Patriotic Bloc, former President Igor Dodon, asked security services to monitor political opponents while in power, according to a separate set of documents seen by Bloomberg. Dodon, in an email response to Bloomberg, said he had always acted in accordance with the law and in the interests of Moldova.
In a separate “open letter” to Bloomberg, published on social media, Dodon accused the Moldovan authorities of illegally exerting pressure on opposition parties. “The ruling regime in Moldova is actively using administrative resources not only to achieve its political goals, but also to intimidate its main rivals,” he wrote.
He also claimed that “certain Western powers” were interfering in the election campaign by sending high-ranking officials to the country to support PAS and threatening to withhold aid to Moldova if the party lost.
According to European officials, Russia has devoted significant resources to trying to influence elections in the region. In Georgia last year, elections were marred by accusations of widespread interference by Moscow, which paved the way for months of protests.
Then came the presidential campaign in Romania, where judges ordered a rerun of the election after allegations of Russian interference that led to a far-right candidate winning the first round.
A months-long investigation has shown that Russia has been directing a hybrid campaign against Romania since 2022, said state prosecutor Alex Florenta. Four companies linked to Russia operated fake social media accounts and AI bots, which reached at least 1,3 million citizens, he said on September 16.
In Moldova, Sandu estimated in an address to European parliamentarians this month that Russia had spent the equivalent of one percent of her country's GDP, or about 150 million euros, to influence the referendum on EU membership and her re-election campaign.
European officials familiar with Moscow's plans said it was highly likely the Kremlin had set aside a similar amount for this year's election. They spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity because of the confidentiality of the estimates.
One of the key segments of the Kremlin's plan is to create the appearance of a competitive election, although in reality it is designed to dilute support for Sand, according to one of the documents seen by Bloomberg.
The votes of Moldovans from the diaspora were crucial in the 2024 elections. According to one of the documents, Russia planned to recruit members of the Moldovan diaspora for these elections and pay their travel expenses to vote.
The plans included a disinformation campaign on Telegram, TikTok and Facebook, as well as through traditional channels and call centers. Messages in Romanian, Moldova's official language, and Russian accused Sandu of being a foreign puppet who was pushing the country into poverty and war.
Bloomberg writes that Moldovan police are trying to stop the spread of fake news on social media and have said that certain groups are also illegally bringing in money to buy votes and finance political parties with the aim of undermining the results of the elections. On September 16 alone, police seized five million Moldovan lei ($302.000) during raids as part of a crackdown on an alleged money laundering scheme, the statement said.
According to the documents, Russia also plans to recruit men from sports clubs and criminal networks to organize violent provocations during the voting and at post-election protests. This would include demonstrations demanding that Sandu resign if her party loses or that the result be declared irregular if she wins.
The Kremlin's focus, according to European officials, is clearly on the post-election events. The type of support that opposition parties in Moldova receive from Moscow varies, from advice to funding. If they win, their relations are likely to be strained, officials said, given their history of mutual distrust and competition for Russian favor.
Russia is also reportedly planning to recruit men from sports clubs and criminal networks to organize violent provocations during voting and at post-election protests.
Dodon, who lost to Sandu in the 2020 presidential election, has been tracking opponents of all political orientations, according to documents seen by Bloomberg.
The documents contain hundreds of messages between Dodon and a senior Moldovan intelligence officer from October 2019 to May 2021. Among the people of interest were not only his opponents, such as Sandu, but also other pro-Russian politicians and businessmen.
Dodon's requests and the various information he received included confidential information about the trips, meetings, and events in which these individuals participated. These included flight passenger lists, border crossing information, incident reports, and visual evidence from meetings. The exchanges also indicate that the services monitored the activities of certain foreign embassies.
"As for my cooperation with state institutions, it has always been in the public interest, not for political or personal reasons," Dodon replied in an email to Bloomberg's questions. "As head of state, I have acted exclusively within the framework of the law and in the national interest."
The messages also suggest that Dodon was particularly sensitive to demands from Moscow. In February 2020, he requested information about a person whom Moldova’s “eastern partners” insisted should be included in the state security council.
Two months later, during a dispute over the ability of breakaway Transnistria to transport grain, Dodon asked an intelligence officer for reports. “The Russians are writing to me,” he said.
In an open letter to Bloomberg, Dodon rejected "unfounded and false accusations regarding my activities."
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