Czechs began voting yesterday in an election that is likely to unseat their center-right government. Billionaire and former prime minister Andrej Babiš is expected to win, promising to raise wages and boost growth but also cutting aid to Ukraine.
Such a change, according to Reuters, would strengthen the populist, anti-immigration bloc in Europe and could complicate reaching a consensus on climate policies in a country where no incumbent government has won a second term since 1996.
The Czechs suffered bouts of inflation following the global pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and recovery from one of the biggest falls in real incomes in Europe has been slow.
That damaged the popularity of Prime Minister Petar Fijala's Spolu coalition and its liberal allies in government, who have focused on reducing the budget deficit.
The ANO party, founded by Babiš, has been leading in the polls, promising to shower voters with money and protect them from dangers beyond Czech borders, such as expensive climate policies or immigration.
However, upon returning to power, Babiš may have to face a fraud trial, as well as demands from allies against the European Union and NATO, and calls for him to withdraw from his businesses.
Babiš, a 71-year-old businessman born in Slovakia, has shifted from liberal to national-conservative positions since entering politics in 2011, and led a center-left government from 2017-2021.
Polls have shown that ANO could win more than 30 percent of the vote, about 10 points more than Fijala's coalition. But even with a small ally called the Motorists, it is unlikely to have a majority in the 200-seat lower house of parliament. Reuters reports that this is a challenge for the embattled Babiš, whose main strategy of accusing traditional parties of corruption has left him with few allies.
Because of this animosity, Babiš will likely have to seek support, perhaps for a minority government, from the far-right SPD and possibly the far-left Stacilo!. Both parties advocate leaving the EU and NATO and cutting aid to Ukraine.
Babiš has taken an ambivalent stance towards aid to Ukraine, unlike Fijala's government, which immediately stood firmly with Kiev after the Russian invasion in 2022.
Although they contributed less financially than others, the Czechs were among the first to provide tanks and combat vehicles, and they also launched the so-called "Czech Initiative" that brought together traders and defense officials to find millions of artillery shells for Kiev around the world, with funding from Western countries.
Babiš has promised to end the ammunition procurement project, claiming it is too expensive. He wants NATO and the EU to deal with Ukraine.
"We don't have money for our people here. Our program is a better life for the citizens of the Czech Republic... We are not in Ukraine," Babiš said in a debate held on CNN Prima News television on Wednesday.
Walking a tightrope between courting the political margins and remaining on a generally pro-Western course, Babiš sharply criticizes the EU, but at the same time makes it clear that he would not allow any steps towards leaving.
"The EU is inventing regulations, spying, imposing green taxes, but we must defeat it in the European Parliament," Babiš said at a rally in the central town of Kralupy on Monday, calling for "defeating the green lunatics, populists and socialists who are doing everything to destroy Europe."
The essence of his position is that the EU should be led exclusively by national leaders, not by institutions like the European Commission.
However, maintaining such a strategy towards the EU will be difficult with extremist allies and a fragmented parliament, said political analyst Lukas Jelinek.
"SPD and Stacilo! will not sell their skins cheaply," said Jelinek. "It would be a surprise if Babiš manages to form a minority government that would last all four years."
Babiš once wanted the Czech Republic to join the eurozone, but has since become a Eurosceptic and supporter of Donald Trump, handing out caps with the slogan "Strong Czech Republic," inspired by Trump's MAGA slogan.
However, Babiš rejects NATO defense spending targets supported by Trump, and has criticized tariffs and the failure to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Reuters writes that Babiš has no allegiance to an ideology, but rather values personal relationships. One of the most prominent is with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, with whom he joined in founding the anti-Brussels group "Patriots for Europe" in the European Parliament.
“There is a strong personal connection and a certain admiration for how long and how strongly Orban has held power in Hungary, and how, even if unconstructively, he is able to play a role in European affairs,” said Tomas Petricek, a former foreign minister in Babiš’s government.
Babiš was born into a family of diplomats during the communist era, and attended high school and played volleyball in Switzerland. He joined the Communist Party, worked in foreign trade, and had contacts with the secret police.
After the fall of communism in 1989, he founded Agrofert, which he gradually built into an international food and chemical conglomerate with 30.000 employees.
Agrofert has become intertwined with the state over time through public contracts, agricultural and development subsidies. Last year alone, the company received 1,6 billion kronor ($77,21 million), mostly through direct EU payments for agricultural production.
Under conflict of interest rules in the Czech Republic and the EU, Babiš must sell his company, or have the company stop receiving subsidies, or remain outside the cabinet and appoint a deputy to lead it, Transparency International said.
When he was in government last time, Babiš transferred Agrofert to trust funds, but experts say that this is no longer an option after decisions by the EU and domestic courts.
As ANO's candidate for prime minister, Babiš, whose wealth is estimated at $4,3 billion according to Forbes magazine, says he will respect the rules, but also that he will not sell Agrofert.
The director of the Czech branch of Transparency International, David Kotora, said that Babiš's intentions were not clear.
"We could end up in a situation like we had in 2017-2021... when he tried to delay and trivialize the problem through institutions controlled by ANO," Kotora said.
In the event that this conflict is not resolved, the European Commission could suspend subsidies for Agrofert, he added.
Babiša also faces a retrial after an appeals court overturned his acquittal on charges that he committed fraud using a two million euro EU subsidy to build the “Čapi Hnizdo” conference center near Prague.
Babiš denies guilt and calls the case political.
His parliamentary immunity was lifted by the outgoing parliament, allowing the prosecution to continue. However, his immunity will be restored in the elections, and he could postpone the trial if he manages to convince the new parliament not to lift it this time.
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