Moldovan President Maja Sandu smiled with visible relief as she appeared before the press for the first time, a day after tense parliamentary elections on September 28. The scenario of a victory for pro-Russian parties in the former Soviet republic did not materialize, and the unrest that many in the EU candidate country feared did not happen. The ruling pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), despite all the polls, won an absolute majority for the second time – and this after four years of difficult, partly unsuccessful rule.
At her first press conference, Sandu stressed that “the Kremlin’s attempt to bring discord into our country” had failed. At the same time, she issued a warning to the PAS party and the government. “We must use this victory in the interest of our country and all citizens,” the president said. The government has a responsibility to work for all citizens. Only in this way can the Republic of Moldova achieve its goal of becoming a member of the European Union.
The head of state is thus cautiously pointing to the great commitment that the PAS government will have to fulfill in the coming years. Because the majority of voters not only voted against Russian influence, but also in favor of the PAS offer: the government promises the integration of the Republic of Moldova into the EU between 2028 and 2030 - and that important socio-economic and judicial reforms will be better implemented from now on.
People expect quick and visible results
Moldovan political scientist Igor Botan from the NGO ADEPT therefore speaks in an interview with the newspaper Ziarul de Garda of a “very heavy burden” for the ruling party. The director of Transparency International Moldova, Lilia Zaharia, writes in the newspaper that PAS now has “the most difficult mission” ahead of it. “The priority must be the consolidation of the rule of law through an independent judiciary and a real fight against corruption, because people expect quick and visible results.”
For good reason: until a few years ago, the country was politically dominated by oligarchs and criminal groups. For example, between 2012 and 2014, the network around the criminal Moldovan-Israeli businessman Ilan Shor and the influential politician Vladimir “Vlad” Plahotniuc carried out the “heist of the century” – the theft of more than a billion dollars from three Moldovan banks with the help of corrupt judges. At the time, this amount represented almost one-sixth of Moldova’s gross domestic product. The corrupt networks also profited for decades from the country’s supply of Russian gas, another multi-billion dollar business.
Experts skeptical, but not pessimistic
On the other hand, the Republic of Moldova, along with Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, ranks among the three poorest countries in Europe. Of the approximately 2,7 million inhabitants, including those in the separatist region of Transnistria, conservative estimates suggest that at least 850.000, or about a third, work abroad on a permanent basis. Their remittances account for about 16 percent of Moldova’s gross domestic product, one of the highest in the world. Moldova is largely agriculturally oriented, with about 40 percent of exports being agricultural products. It can only compete with other EU countries in the IT sector – that sector already accounts for seven percent of GDP and is growing strongly.
Is it now even remotely realistic for Moldova to overcome the reform deadlock of the past decades and become an EU member within a few years? Experts are skeptical, but not completely pessimistic. In fact, PAS, which has been governing independently since 2021, has launched several serious reforms and fulfilled a number of earlier election promises, including extensive social reforms. Pensions have been increased, the pension system has been reformed, and support programs for families, children, and youth have been introduced. Farmers have received greater support, bureaucratic obstacles have been reduced for those working abroad, and the government has also launched a major road repair program.
No major cases of corruption
Judicial reform and anti-corruption reforms have been implemented only partially, but for the first time in the history of the Republic of Moldova, there is not a lack of political will – but rather a lack of readiness of the judicial system itself for reforms. Thus, the so-called “vetting”, i.e. checking the assets of judges, is carried out very slowly. Also, attempts to legally stop political influence in the appointment of judges have been largely unsuccessful. However, despite some cases of nepotism and abuse of office, there was not a single major case of corruption in the PAS government from 2021 to 2025 – unlike all previous governments.
In the failure to fulfill some reform promises, in addition to internal political resistance, the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war for the Republic of Moldova and the interruption of Russian gas supplies to the country also played a role. Ukraine's small neighbor temporarily received hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees. It had to buy gas and electricity at high prices from non-Russian sources, and full connection to the European energy market through gas pipelines and power lines has not yet been established. However, overall, according to the calculations of the Moldovan organization "Watchdog", the PAS government fulfilled 56 percent of its promises by the 2025 elections.
EU integration without Transnistria
Considering that the Republic of Moldova was not even a candidate for EU membership until June 2022, the integration process itself is quite successful. After the so-called screening phase, the first negotiation chapters are expected to be opened in spring 2026. The Moldovan government aims to sign the association agreement by the end of 2028 – which does not yet mean membership. Most observers in the Republic of Moldova, for example from the Expert Group, one of the leading Moldovan think tanks, believe that this extremely ambitious goal, although not impossible, is nevertheless unlikely.
In addition to numerous other internal political obstacles, the biggest unresolved issue is how to deal with the Republic of Moldova due to the separatist pro-Russian region of Transnistria. According to Moldovan President Maja Sandu, the country's temporary integration into the EU without Transnistria is conceivable. What that would look like in concrete terms is unclear.
Most Moldovan experts believe that the new PAS government is primarily obliged to fulfill its reform promises in order to achieve EU integration. But some also warn the EU not to leave the country in the lurch – and in its own interest. “Russian interference in the Republic of Moldova risks stalling the country’s path to the EU and turning Chisinau into a strategic stronghold for the Kremlin,” writes Leo Litra of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). “The EU cannot afford to stand idly by. If Europeans are not ready to defend their democracy now, others are ready to take it away from them.”
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