China is helping Russia drag out the war in Ukraine to distract America from focusing on China, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kalas said in an interview with The Economist.
"Vladimir Putin, the Russian dictator, has been devastating Ukraine for more than three years and shows no sign of seriously considering efforts to broker a ceasefire. China has become his most important ally in the conflict," the British newspaper writes.
Kalas said that the Chinese government is a key factor enabling this war.
She told The Economist that Russia and China have been “very open” about their intentions. During talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin in Moscow in 2023, Xi said that together they would bring about “changes not seen in a hundred years,” a Chinese phrase referring to the decline of the American-dominated world order.
“The question is whether we trust them,” says Kalas. Too often, she noted, Western decision-makers have been caught off guard because they view the world through their own “democratic prism.”
Recalling a conversation she had with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Kaja Kalas says: "His message was that it was not in their interest to stop this war (in Ukraine), because then America's attention would be focused on China."
She also mentioned conversations with analysts at a Japanese think tank who told her that “the war in Ukraine is not particularly popular in China” and that Chinese leaders need to “explain to their people why they are key in enabling this war.” They want to make it clear, she added, that “it is in the interest of (the Chinese)” to keep America’s attention on Europe.
The Economist reports that China was cautious in its support for Russia at the beginning of the war, refusing to send large shipments of ready-made munitions or lethal aid. But now it appears to be transferring more and more key components for weapons and civilian drones. Economically, the two countries are closer than ever before. Trade has grown sharply since China replaced Russia’s Western partners. China buys Russian oil and gas, while in return it sends consumer goods and technology (some of which has military applications).
At the same time, the newspaper points out, American support for Ukraine has weakened. At the beginning of his second term, Donald Trump suspended arms deliveries (although some were later resumed) and supported the handover of part of Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of a possible ceasefire agreement.
Taiwan, which has long relied on American support to deter Chinese invasion, fears that Trump may soften his stance in its case as well.
According to The Economist, at today's meeting between Xi and Trump in South Korea, the Chinese leader is expected to pressure the US president to weaken American support for Taiwan.
Kaja Kallas acknowledges that the predictability that Europe once relied on in its relations with America “no longer exists” under Trump’s leadership. But she argues that Europe’s respect for international rules and the principles of free trade are the right strategy in a world of unpredictable hardliners.
“Europe is still the one that believes in free trade,” Kallas stressed, pointing to recent efforts to conclude agreements like the one with the South American trading bloc Mercosur. The problem it faces is that many of Europe's adversaries and allies no longer want to play by the rules.
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