German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrint (CSU) recently gave a positive assessment of his “migration turnaround”. According to him, the number of first-time asylum applications in Germany fell to around 113.000 in 2025 – a 50 percent decrease compared to the previous year. Dobrint’s ministry attributes this decline to strict border controls and the rejection of asylum seekers directly at the borders, which have been in place since he took office in May.
Since May, the Federal Police have been carrying out random checks at all German land borders with a significant staff deployment. According to the Federal Police, around 21.000 people have been directly turned away due to inadequate travel documents.
Around 1.000 of them presented their asylum application to officials and were not allowed entry, even though they would have had the right to proceed with the procedure. This right has been confirmed by the courts in individual cases.
The Federal Ministry of the Interior continues to argue that the relevant European asylum law does not have to apply because Germany is in an "emergency situation."
In an interview with the newspaper Bild, Interior Minister Dobrint said that he deals with migration issues clearly and consistently.
"Those who are not entitled to protection should not come - those who commit a crime should leave. The clear signal from Germany that migration policy in Europe has changed has been received around the world," Dobrint explained. Among other measures, the new government has stopped family reunification of asylum seekers. Previously, 1.000 people were allowed to enter the country per month for family reunification.
"This has almost nothing to do with border controls"
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus believes that the decline in the number of asylum seekers is not primarily due to stricter government policies and border controls. In his opinion, the main reason is primarily the end of the civil war in Syria in 2024, which is why people are no longer leaving their homeland. The key factor, Knaus believes, is the situation in the migrants' countries of origin. The monthly number of asylum applications has remained stable at around 9.000 – both before and after the introduction of stricter border controls in May, he says.
"The number one nationality that has been coming to Germany for the past ten years seeking protection is no longer coming. This is a big change and, if it continues, it will have lasting consequences. It is a very small number and it has almost nothing to do with the controls on the German-Polish or German-Austrian border," Knaus told DW. He is from the European Stability Initiative (ESI) think tank.
EU readmission agreements
Much more important than border controls and national measures are, in Knaus' opinion, the European Union's conclusions from December 2025 that allow for agreements with third countries on the reception of returned migrants. People who, for example, entered Italy or Greece via Libya could be returned to another African country without undergoing an asylum procedure. A similar principle already operates under the 2016 agreement with Turkey on the readmission of Syrian refugees.
"If the EU seizes this opportunity, the number of people currently illegally travelling along the Mediterranean route could drop drastically," says migration researcher Knaus. People would not risk crossing the sea if they knew they could not stay in the EU.
According to the EU Asylum Agency based in Malta, the Mediterranean route via Libya is currently the most frequently used, but also the most dangerous.
The end of the civil war in Syria is having an impact not only in Germany: between January and November last year, the number of first-time asylum applications in the EU fell by 25 percent. According to EU Commissioner for Migration Magnus Bruner, the number of returns and deportations increased by 20 percent.
Deportations to Syria "unrealistic"
More deportations of migrants without a residence permit are also a goal of the ruling coalition in Berlin. Dobrint wants to increase the number of deportations of those who have to leave Germany this year. Last year, 21.500 deportations were recorded (from January to November), which is an increase of 20 percent compared to 2024.
Dobrint's CSU party is now proposing that a large number of Syrian refugees not have their protection status extended and that they be returned to Syria.
Migration researcher Gerald Knaus believes this is an impossible proposal. The Syrian government, he says, would have to agree to it, and tens of thousands of court cases in Germany would likely follow.
"The expectation that large numbers of people could be returned to Syria or deported, given everything we know, is completely unrealistic. That will not happen, even if it might be legally possible under asylum law," says Gerald Knaus.
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