Brussels is preparing proposals to scrap the European Union (EU) accession system in place since the Cold War and replace it with a controversial two-stage model that could speed up Ukraine's entry as part of any peace deal to end the Russian invasion.
The restructuring plan being discussed in the European Commission, although still in a preliminary phase, is already unsettling EU capitals concerned about the approach of so-called “membership-lite”, with far-reaching consequences for the Union, seven senior officials involved in the talks told the Financial Times.
Ukraine, which became a formal candidate for EU membership shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, sees membership as a fundamental element of its post-war future and a definitive statement of its pro-Western orientation.
Mention that Kiev could join the EU in 2027 is included in drafts of a 20-point US-led peace plan being negotiated, although EU officials estimate that the country could need a decade of reforms to meet strict criteria for accession.
However, Commission officials understand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will only be able to accept other aspects of a possible peace deal, such as the ceding of territory to Russia, if he can present EU membership as a positive outcome.
The preliminary plan being discussed would allow Ukraine to join the bloc, but with significantly less decision-making power. Normal voting rights, for example, would initially not be available to Ukraine at leaders' summits and ministerial meetings, officials said.
Under proposals still under development, Kiev would gain gradual access to parts of the bloc's single market, its agricultural subsidies and internal development funds, after meeting key post-accession benchmarks.
This would drastically change the accession rules agreed in 1993, which require countries to meet extensive EU regulations across a wide range of policies and only enter the club when all items are met.
“Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures… We are not undermining enlargement. We are expanding the very concept of enlargement,” said one senior EU diplomat familiar with the concept. “The rules were written more than 30 years ago and need to be more flexible. This is a once-in-a-generation moment and we must respond to it.”
But diplomats from EU member states and other aspiring members who have taken part in informal talks with the Commission on the proposal say there is deep unease about the concept. Some fear it could negatively impact the bloc's future stability, devalue membership and unsettle other candidate countries.
"It's a trap set by Putin and Trump, and we are walking into it," said another EU diplomat, pointing to the risk to the bloc's unity.
“The EU is once again stuck between a rock and a hard place,” said Muztaba Rahman, Europe director at consultancy Eurasia Group. “It has no choice but to accelerate Ukraine’s accession, but that will open a Pandora’s box of political and public policy risks that no one in Brussels fully understands.”
Ukraine's progress through the current membership process is being held back by Hungary, which is blocking the unanimous consent required to formally open and close each of the 35 so-called accession "chapters."
EU and Ukrainian officials believe that if the United States is a signatory to the final peace plan, it will force Budapest and its close ally, President Donald Trump, to give in.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, linked Ukraine's accession to peace talks on Thursday. "Accession is both a key security guarantee for Ukraine in itself, but also an essential driver of future growth and prosperity," she said.
But a large group of existing EU members, while keen to support Ukraine, are strongly opposed to any measures that would either create loopholes in the rules or establish a two-tier system of membership, diplomats said. “You can’t have a merit-based process if you set a fixed end date for it in advance,” said one of the diplomats.
“If you try to force it on member states, they will never accept it,” a senior EU official said, warning that it would open a damaging rift between Brussels and member states.
Other officials say any move in the enlargement process would also disrupt the ambitions of other candidates for membership, and raise broader questions about how the EU cooperates with its close neighbors.
Montenegro and Albania are closest to membership in terms of progress through the chapters and may feel they are being offered a less attractive prize, said three of the seven people familiar with the talks.
This would also raise the question of whether other countries that have made little or no progress towards membership in recent years - such as Bosnia and Turkey - would be offered the same "light membership" option.
It is also unclear how this would affect European Economic Area countries, such as Norway, which are part of the single market without voting rights, or other countries that are not in the accession process but are close partners, such as the United Kingdom.
“This raises huge and difficult questions,” said a third senior EU diplomat. “Many unforeseen outcomes are possible.”
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