The elections in Hungary will be the most fateful in the European Union this year, writes Brussels-based Politiko.
The election campaign in Hungary, according to the media outlet, has kicked into high gear this week, as populist nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces the toughest challenge of his 15 years in power. The long-exhausted opposition hopes that Peter Magyar — the conservative leader of the opposition Tisza party, which is leading in the polls with 12 percent — can overthrow what Orban himself describes as Hungary’s “illiberal democracy.”
For many Hungarians, these elections are a referendum on Orbán’s model of government. During his term, the government led by Orbán’s Fidesz party has tightened control over the media and state-owned companies — prompting accusations of clientelism — while weakening the independence of the judiciary and passing laws that have sent Hungary plummeting down the transparency rankings. The country now ranks at the bottom of the World Justice Project’s rule of law index among EU member states.
Orban, 62, is the EU leader closest to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and a constant obstacle to Brussels’ efforts to build a united front against the Kremlin, Politico reports. He has repeatedly clashed with the EU on issues ranging from LGBTQ+ rights to migration. Heralding the end of the liberal multilateral order, Orban declared earlier this year that the EU would “fall apart on its own.”
But can Magyar — whose last name literally means “Hungarian” — really overthrow his former ally? And even if he succeeds, how far could he realistically lead Hungary back toward liberal democracy, while Orbán’s state architecture remains in place?
Politico has published a look at five key issues as Hungary approaches a "seismic" vote on April 12th.
1. Why should I be interested in this?
Hungary may be a relatively small country, with a population of 9,6 million, but under Orban's leadership it has become one of the European Union's biggest headaches. For years, he has used his veto power in Brussels to block sanctions on Russia, withhold financial aid to Ukraine and repeatedly stall urgent EU decisions.
He is also a key — and sometimes leading — member of a group of right-wing populists in European capitals, who unite around issues such as opposition to migration and skepticism about arming Ukraine. Without Orban, Czech leader Andrej Babiš and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico would be much more isolated figures at European Council summits.
Brussels has often resorted to complex workarounds to neutralize Hungarian obstructionism, and Orbán's persistent opposition has led to calls to abolish the unanimity rule that has been in place for decades.
"You have heard me 20 times, if not more, lamenting the attitude of Viktor Orban, who every time we had to move forward to help Ukraine... used the veto as a means of blackmail," EU liberal party leader Valerie Heyer told reporters on Tuesday.
2. What are the main battlegrounds of the campaign?
The Hungarian accuses Orban and Fidesz of nepotism and corruption — of weakening the economy by favoring oligarchs — as well as of losing EU funds due to constant conflicts with Brussels.
Orban, on the other hand, wants to portray his archenemy, the Hungarians, as a puppet under the control of Brussels.
Over the past year, Fidesz has been instigating public debates aimed at dividing the Tisza electorate — which ranges from green and left-wing voters to disillusioned former Orban supporters — on issues such as banning the LGBTQ+ Pride Parade.
Tisa's strategy was to avoid taking a clear position on controversial issues, in order to win an absolute majority that would allow her to reform the electoral law, which they claim Orban adapted to himself, and implement constitutional changes.
Tisza's deputy leader, Zoltan Tar, told Politiko that he expects Orban's government to employ "all possible dirty tricks."
"State propaganda, smear campaigns, artificial intelligence-generated forgeries, edited footage, possible staged incidents, blackmail and exploitation of a rigged electoral system. They will mobilize everyone, because they have a lot to lose," Tar said.
Speaking at the Fidesz party congress on Saturday, Orban attacked Tisa, calling her a pro-European stooge.
"If you vote for Tisa or DK (the social democratic Democratic Coalition), you are voting against your own future. Tisa and DK will implement Brussels' demands without blinking an eye. Don't forget that the head of Tisa is Mr. Weber, the biggest warmonger in Europe," Orban said, alluding to German European People's Party President Manfred Weber.
3. How and when are elections held?
Parliamentary elections will be held on Sunday, April 12. Citizens will elect a new National Assembly with 199 members, under a mixed electoral system: 106 members are elected in single-mandate constituencies, and 93 from national party lists.
Politico reports that their poll shows Tisa leading with 49 percent support, ahead of Fidesz with 37 percent — with Orban's party trailing for almost a year now.
Although the official campaign begins on February 21st, the election race has been practically in full swing for months.
Other notable parties include the Democratic Coalition (DK), the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) movement, and the satirical Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP), which was largely founded to mock Orbán's policies. However, they are struggling for political survival as they may not pass the electoral threshold — meaning the Hungarian parliament could be completely controlled by two right-wing parties.
4. Can elections be free and fair?
Challengers to the ruling party face a system designed to favor Fidesz. In 2011, Orban's government redrawn electoral districts and fundamentally changed the electoral system to maximize its chances of winning seats.
“There is no direct interference in the act of voting itself, but the broader competitive environment — both in terms of institutional rules and access to resources — is strongly tilted in favor of the ruling parties,” said political analyst Marton Bene of the TK Institute of Political Science in Budapest.
In addition to controlling about 80 percent of the media market, the government allows ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries (who mostly support Fidesz) to vote by mail, while those living abroad who have retained residency in Hungary must travel to embassies to vote.
"One side has access to the full resources of the state, while the challenger receives no public campaign funds and has almost no presence in state media," said political scientist Rudolf Metz of the TK Institute, adding that this imbalance is being partially mitigated in the digital sphere.
However, even these unfair conditions do not rule out a Hungarian victory, says Bene — provided that the integrity of the voting process itself is preserved.
5. How much would a Hungarian victory really change things?
The political establishment in Brussels is keen for a Hungarian victory, hoping that a Tisza government would deepen ties with the EU.
Centrist leader Heyer said her party supports "any candidate who will carry pro-European values and who will be able to defeat" the current Hungarian prime minister.
Conservative leader Weber quickly welcomed Tsis into the center-right family, to secure influence in Budapest and provide them with the resources to develop an electoral platform. He has repeatedly presented the Hungarian as the man who will save Hungary from Orban.
Although he is seen as a potential bridge builder in the strained relations between Brussels and Budapest, the Hungarian is not an unabashed supporter of the EU. He has been cautious about Brussels, aware that any rapprochement could be used against him by Orban. In an interview with Politico in October 2024, he said: “We certainly do not believe in a European superstate.”
On the domestic front, Tarr told Politiko that Tisa wants to "keep the border fence, oppose mandatory migrant quotas and the accelerated accession of Ukraine to the EU, advocate for peace, fight Russian propaganda, strengthen the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) and Central Europe, without the role of the European 'bad guy'."
This coincides with the assessment of political scientist Metz, who says that a Hungarian victory "would not mean a radical turn or a return to some idealized past."
"Hungary's role as a permanent disruptive factor in the EU would likely weaken — not because national interests would disappear, but because they would be represented through negotiations and institutional action, rather than through a constant policy of veto and symbolic conflict," Metz added.
Analysts also warn that change in the country could be slow. Zoltan Vasali of Milton Friedman University said dismantling the current system would be "legally and institutionally very demanding."
"Key constitutional bodies will retain their mandates after the upcoming elections, and important positions are still held by people close to the current government, which limits rapid changes," Vasali said.
The scale of the Hungarian victory could be decisive. A two-thirds parliamentary majority, which would allow the new government to change the constitution, would be, according to Metz, a "watershed moment."
"This would give the Hungarian government the legal capacity to restore key elements of the rule of law, re-establish checks and balances, and introduce safeguards such as term limits for key positions," he said.
Kinga Gal, the leader of Fidesz in the European Parliament, did not respond to a request for comment by the time of writing, writes Politiko.
Bonus video:
