More and more Ukrainians are ready to give up Donbas if it means ending the war, writes the New York Times, stating that a change in mood is being felt in a country exhausted by the long-running conflict.
The newspaper cites as an example Kristina Yurchenko, the owner of a dance studio in Donbas, who says she has built a life for years in the industrial region in eastern Ukraine, but that she would be ready to leave everything behind if it would bring lasting peace. Yurchenko told the American newspaper that she would agree to Ukraine hand over to Russia the part of Donbas still under Kiev’s control, but only on one condition: that Ukraine’s allies provide strong security guarantees for the period after the war. “For me, peace is a priority, and if there would be no war after that, I would be ready to leave,” she said, adding that in that case she would move to a part of Ukraine not under Russian rule.
Such positions represent a significant shift from earlier stages of the war, when giving up territory that Russia failed to conquer was long considered a red line. But what once seemed unthinkable no longer seems so, as the Times writes, especially as Moscow insists that peace talks, backed by the United States, will only progress if Ukraine agrees to withdraw from Donbas.
The issue of the future of Donbass is described as one of the most difficult in the ongoing negotiations between Ukraine, Russia and the United States, which resumed yesterday in Abu Dhabi. The chief Ukrainian negotiator last night said that the first day of the two-day talks had been “productive”, Reuters reported. “The talks were substantive and productive, focused on concrete steps and practical solutions,” Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, wrote on the X network.
Moscow wants Kiev to withdraw its troops from the entire Donetsk region, including a belt of heavily fortified towns considered one of Ukraine's strongest defense systems, as a precondition for any agreement.
Donbass encompasses parts of several regions, including Donetsk and Luhansk: Ukraine still holds about 20 percent of Donetsk Oblast, but has lost all of Luhansk.
For Russia, the conquest of Donbass has both symbolic and political significance, as it would allow it to present at least some kind of victory, even if it has not achieved the broader goal of subjugating all of Ukraine. At the same time, the New York Times states that Moscow has lost many more soldiers in its attempts to take Donbass than Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelensky has said in public appearances that Ukraine is still against a unilateral withdrawal from Donbas, but, as the New York Times reports, he has occasionally hinted at a certain flexibility, saying that both Russia and Ukraine must be ready to compromise, while Kiev is enduring pressure both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
The change in mood is also visible in polls. The New York Times recalls that in May 2022, two months after Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops out of the vicinity of Kiev, a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology showed that 82 percent of Ukrainians believed that the country should not give up territory under any circumstances. In the institute's latest survey, published on Monday, 40 percent of respondents said they would support giving up Donbas in exchange for security guarantees.
However, most Ukrainians remain opposed to territorial concessions, the American newspaper emphasizes. Many say they are willing to continue to endure hardship, including a Russian campaign of attacks on energy infrastructure during the extremely cold winter.
Analysts warn that giving up on Donbas could further divide Ukrainian society. It could also change Zelensky’s political legacy: from a leader who defended the country to one who allowed Russia to occupy territory held by Ukraine, where about 190.000 people now live. Yevhen Kolyada, head of the Relief Coordination Center, which has helped evacuate thousands of people from the frontline, told The New York Times that Zelensky “listens to his people and will not do this,” alluding to a withdrawal from Donbas.
For those who are still considering giving up Donbas, security guarantees are crucial, analysts say. The fear is that if Ukraine withdraws its troops without such guarantees, Russia could regroup and launch new attacks from Donbas into the open plains beyond the fortified cities.
Political analyst and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Social Cohesion, Oleh Sakyan, told the New York Times that security assurances must mean “a guarantee that there will be no new attack and that partner countries are responsible for ensuring this.” Zelensky, according to the newspaper, said that Ukraine is ready to sign security guarantee agreements with Europe and the United States. European countries have announced that they could deploy troops in Ukraine after a possible ceasefire, but it remains unclear whether they would be ready to go to war against Russia in defense of Ukraine. In any case, Russia opposes the idea of deploying European forces in Ukraine.
Sakyan warns that even ceding Donbass might not be enough to get Russia to give up the war. “It is a great illusion that reaching an agreement with Russia on some demarcation line could lead to even a temporary peace,” he said.
Yurchenko herself, though she says peace is most important to her, fears that even major territorial concessions would not guarantee that Russia will not attack again. If Ukraine were to cede Donbas, she told the New York Times, they would have to move and rebuild their lives from scratch. “It would be a difficult but worthwhile sacrifice to end the war,” she said, adding a question that, the paper says, is increasingly being asked in Ukraine: “But who can guarantee that I won’t have to do it again?”
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