Portuguese voters will head to the polls again on Sunday, February 8, in the final round of the presidential election, which was marked by a campaign to prevent a far-right candidate from coming to power, and which has been overshadowed in recent days by deadly storms that have hit the country, the British newspaper The Guardian reports today.
Moderate left-wing candidate Antonio José Seguro won the first round of the election, held on January 18, with 31,1 percent of the vote.
Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right party Sega (Enough is Enough), which is now the second-largest party in parliament, won 23,5 percent of the vote, while João Cotrim de Figueiredo of the conservative, pro-business Liberal Initiative party came third among 11 candidates, with about 16 percent of the vote.
Luís Marques Mendes, the candidate of the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD), finished in fifth place with 11,3 percent of the vote.
Before the campaign was almost officially suspended by two deadly and devastating storms, some conservative figures in the country put on a rare show of apparent unity, backing Segura in an attempt to block the possibility of a president from the far right. Others, including Portugal's Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, who comes from the center-right, refused to back the socialist.
Opinion polls indicate that voters are also rallying around Segur.
According to a poll conducted by Catholic University pollsters, published late Tuesday, the socialist candidate has 67 percent support, compared to Ventura's 33 percent.
If the polls prove accurate, Seguro will achieve the best result for a first-time presidential candidate in five decades, since Portugal overthrew an authoritarian regime.
But, if Ventura wins more than 32 percent of the vote, Šega will achieve a higher share of the vote than the ruling PSD won in the last general election.
Analysts say that in itself could herald a new political turning point.
"The ongoing problem is Andre Ventura's percentage and his ability to mobilize the right-wing electorate. What will be important to watch on Sunday night is whether the Šega leader manages to surpass Montenegro's share of the vote. If so, and the polls indicate this, Ventura will strengthen his project to 'cannibalize' the space of the right in Portugal," said Antonio Costa Pinto, a political scientist at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal.
Among the first to announce their support for Segura were two center-right politicians - former president and prime minister Anibal Cavaco Silva and former deputy prime minister Paulo Portas.
Politicians, former ministers, public intellectuals and other figures who identify as "non-socialists" are among the more than 6.600 signatories of an open letter supporting Seguro.
Some other conservative figures who have expressed support for Segura have done so reluctantly. Carlos Moedas, the center-right mayor of Lisbon, told Portuguese publication Expresso that he would vote for Segura because the socialist candidate is "capable of not being divisive." But he added that his support is "without enthusiasm."
Mariana Leitao, leader of the Liberal Initiative party, also said Seguro would get her vote, albeit "without enthusiasm."
Montenegro, who leads the PSD, said he would not support any candidate in the second round, saying his party was "out of the campaign."
Cotrim de Figueiredo, whose first-round result exceeded expectations, also refrained from explicitly endorsing the center-left candidate, but said he would not vote for Ventura, nor would he abstain, nor would he cast an invalid, blank ballot.
Montenegro's refusal to take a stand has been criticized by several political figures and commentators in Portugal.
"The prime minister's stance is seen by some social democratic circles as cowardly, faced with the threat that Ventura poses to the foundations of the regime," said Miguel Carvalho, journalist and author of the book "Por Dentro do Chega" (Inside Chega).
He said that the prime minister's neutrality, which is linked to his government's legislative concessions to the Šega party, will come back like a boomerang: "Montenegro's decision will remain in the dark memory of the PSD and opens the door to Ventura's consolidation as the leader of the right in Portugal."
But, as Carvalho also stated, Montenegro and Cotrim de Figueiredo may have positioned themselves the way they did because they are aware that the "apparent unity" of the conservatives around Segur could actually play into Ventura's hands.
"It solidifies Ventura's claim that he is an anti-establishment candidate," Carvalho said.
Despite the great media attention that conservative support for Seguro has attracted, experts believe that it may not have a decisive impact.
"The truth is that most of those conservative names are no longer that important. The current elite of the Social Democratic and Liberal Initiative knows better and is aware that reality has changed. The joke has practically 'decapitated' those historically significant figures," said Košta Pinto.
The campaign for the second round of the election was cut short by two major storms, which led to the declaration of a state of natural disaster, extended until February 15. Ventura called for the vote to be postponed by seven days, calling it "a question of equality among all Portuguese people."
The National Election Commission announced that the vote would be held as planned: "A state of natural disaster, meteorological warnings or generally unfavorable circumstances are not in themselves sufficient reason to postpone voting in a city or region."
The election law, however, allows individual municipalities to postpone voting.
Montenegro said that although the storms caused a "devastating crisis," obstacles to voting could be overcome.
Bonus video:
