The European Union (EU) is preparing an unprecedented move that could bring Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year, as Brussels seeks to solidify the country's position in Europe and distance it from Moscow, according to ten officials and diplomats.
Four years after a full-scale Russian invasion, and as Kiev pushes to include EU membership in a peace deal with the Kremlin in 2027, this early-stage idea would represent a dramatic shift in the way the bloc welcomes new states. The plan would see Ukraine given a seat at the EU table before it implements the reforms needed for full membership privileges.
European officials and the Ukrainian government say Kiev’s bid is urgent. Russia will likely try to “stop our movement towards the EU,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told reporters in Kiev on Friday, when asked about the importance of formalizing the 2027 accession date. “That’s why we say: name a date. Why a specific date? Because the date will be signed by Ukraine, Europe, the United States and Russia.”
The EU idea reflects Emmanuel Macron's blueprint for a "multi-speed" Union, which he has repeatedly outlined since becoming French president in 2017. The latest version has been informally dubbed "reverse enlargement," according to one EU official and two European diplomats, because it essentially brings countries into the bloc at the beginning of the process of meeting criteria, rather than at the end.
EU officials say the idea is attractive because it would give Kiev space to complete reforms of its democratic institutions, judiciary and political system, while reducing the likelihood that it will give up hope of ever joining the bloc and turn its back on the West. However, obstacles are high, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who opposes Ukraine's membership.
Based on interviews with five diplomats representing different countries and three EU officials and two Ukrainian officials, who were granted anonymity to speak about confidential negotiations they know about, Politico identified five steps.
Step 1: Prepare Ukraine
The EU has “fast-tracked” Ukraine’s candidacy. This means giving Kiev informal guidance in negotiations on “clusters” — legal steps on the path to membership.
The bloc has already provided Ukraine with details of three of the six negotiating clusters. At an informal meeting of European affairs ministers in Cyprus in March, the EU wants to present details of additional clusters to the visiting Ukrainian delegation, so that work can begin on them as well.
“Despite the most challenging circumstances, amidst continued Russian aggression, Ukraine is accelerating its reform efforts,” Marilena Raouna, deputy minister for Europe of Cyprus, which holds the presidency of the EU Council, told Politika. The March 3 meeting will be aimed at reaffirming that support, she said.
But “there will be no shortcuts” when it comes to reforms, one EU official said. That message was echoed by two senior diplomats from countries that are strong supporters of Ukraine, as well as all EU officials Politico spoke to.
“EU membership only brings benefits if you go through the transformation through the enlargement process — that is the real superpower of EU membership,” said one official. “The European Commission has to balance two things: the need to move quickly, but also that there are reforms in Ukraine.”
On the other hand, Kiev says it is ready to do what is necessary. “Technically, we will be ready by 2027,” Zelensky said on Friday. “You are talking about the end of the war and simultaneous security guarantees. And the EU is a security guarantee for us.”
Step 2: Make "a little" EU membership
EU governments questioned European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about efforts to break the deadlock over bringing new states into the bloc at a meeting in Brussels on Friday, according to diplomats who took part in the conversation or were familiar with its content.
She outlined various options and models that the EU is considering, they said. Among them was the idea of a "reverse enlargement."
“It would be a kind of reconstruction of the process — you come in, and then rights and obligations are gradually introduced to you,” said one EU official familiar with the discussions. “So there would be a reassessment of the way we approach enlargement, based on the very different situation we are in now compared to when the Commission set the criteria.”
The idea is not to lower the bar, but to send a politically strong message to countries whose accession is being held up by war or opposition from capitals like Budapest — not just Ukraine, but also Moldova and Albania, among others.
“It is important to send a political message,” said one EU diplomat. “The war of aggression has been going on for four years. Ukrainians need support. The EU must provide that support, politically and psychologically.”
Although Zelensky has previously said Ukraine will not accept "second-class" status in the EU, it could be open to something that codifies the country's path to the EU before it becomes a full member, said an official familiar with Kiev's thinking.
A Moldovan official told Politico that the country “wants to join a European Union that functions effectively even after 27 member states, and we welcome discussions on the internal reforms needed to make that possible.” At the same time, “full membership — with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making — must remain the clear and final destination.”
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama told Politika last month that a creative approach to EU membership was a “good idea” and that his country would even temporarily accept not having its own commissioner.
The idea also has opponents in the EU. “In principle, you cannot discuss two categories of member states,” said one EU official. “That would not be fair not only to Ukraine, but also to the European project. The message should be to accelerate reforms.”
Germany, in particular, is against the idea of creating multiple tiers of membership and is wary that countries that join before they are ready could be given promises that Brussels will not be able to keep, according to a senior diplomat. However, he hopes that if other heavyweights like Paris, Rome and Warsaw are on board with the initiative, Berlin might be persuaded.
Step 3: Wait for Orban to leave
The challenge for Ukraine's prospects is to get all 27 member states to agree, as any decision on enlargement requires unanimous support. Orban, Putin's closest ally in the EU, is staunchly opposed.
But the Commission and EU capitals are looking towards the Hungarian elections in April and at the same time working on ways to circumvent Orban's veto.
Orban faces a tight race and is trailing in the polls. The issue of Ukraine's EU membership has become a weapon in his campaign; over the weekend he said that "Ukraine is our enemy" because of its efforts to ban Russian energy imports and that it should "never" be allowed into the EU.
None of the officials Politiko spoke to said they believed Orban would change his mind before the election.
The Hungarian prime minister’s antipathy towards Kiev “runs deep,” said one senior EU diplomat. “It’s a personal matter between Orban and Zelensky. It’s more than a strategic or tactical game.”
Orban and Zelensky have repeatedly attacked each other. Zelensky has publicly accused Orban of “doing very dangerous things” by blocking Ukraine’s path to the EU, and has separately called Budapest a “little Moscow.” Orban has called Ukraine “one of the most corrupt countries in the world” and accused Zelensky of threatening Hungary’s sovereignty.
Several EU officials say they hope that if Orban loses the election, his rival Peter Magyar, the conservative leader of the opposition Tisza party, might change course on Ukraine, given that he promised last year to hold a referendum on the issue.
But if Orban is re-elected — we move on to the fourth step.
Step 4: Play the “Trump Card”
While Orban's opposition to Ukraine's entry into the EU seems unwavering, European leaders believe there is one man who could change his mind: Donald Trump.
The US president, who is a close ally of Orban and supported him ahead of the Hungarian elections, has made no secret of his desire to be the one to push Ukraine and Russia towards a peace deal. With Ukraine's accession to the EU by 2027 included in the draft 20-point proposal to end the war, there is hope that Trump could call Budapest to reach an agreement.
Zelensky hinted at this hope on Friday.
Under the peace proposal, the US “commits to being a guarantor that no one will block” elements of the agreement, he said. “We are talking about whether the United States will work politically with some European entities to not block.”
The Trump administration has previously pressured Orban during negotiations on EU sanctions packages against Moscow, an EU diplomat said.
Step 5: If all else fails, strip Hungary of its voting rights
If Trump's "art of the deal" fails, the EU has another card: to put Article 7 of the EU Treaty on the table against Hungary again, according to two EU diplomats.
Article 7, which is applied when a country is deemed to be at risk of violating the bloc's fundamental values, is the most severe political sanction the EU can impose, as it suspends a member's rights — including those related to decisions on the admission of new members.
The EU has no intention of launching such an initiative at the moment, as it is assumed that it would play into Orban’s hands ahead of the April elections. But capitals are assessing support for using the instrument if Orban is re-elected and continues to block EU decision-making. Such a move is “absolutely possible,” said a third diplomat.
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