Russian officials have no desire to end Russia's nearly four-year invasion of neighboring Ukraine and believe they can outsmart the United States in talks on how to end the war, a senior Estonian intelligence official told the Associated Press (AP).
Kaupo Rosin, director of Estonia's foreign intelligence service, said that Moscow was buying time in negotiations with Washington and that "there is no talk at all about how to truly meaningfully cooperate with the US."
Rosin, speaking at an online briefing ahead of the release of Estonia’s annual security report today, said the findings were based on intelligence his country had gathered from “internal Russian discussions.” He did not specify how the information was obtained. The Estonian report said Russia was unlikely to attack NATO this year or next, but that Moscow remained dangerous and was trying to strengthen its armed forces.
Russian officials publicly insist that they are in favor of a negotiated solution, but they show little willingness to compromise and remain firm in their stance that their demands must be met.
Talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys in recent weeks, mediated by the US, have been described by officials from both sides as constructive and positive, but there have been no signs of progress on key issues in the negotiations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin "still thinks in his head that at some point he can win militarily (in Ukraine)," Rosin said.
A White House official responded to comments by the Estonian intelligence chief and said negotiators had made “tremendous progress” in talks to end the war in Ukraine. While prisoner exchanges have been taking place sporadically since May, they pointed to a recent agreement reached in Abu Dhabi between the United States, Ukraine and Russia to release more than 300 prisoners.
The agreement is evidence that efforts to end the war are progressing, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.
In a sign that U.S. President Donald Trump wants to accelerate the momentum of peace efforts, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Washington had given Ukraine and Russia until June to reach a settlement. Trump has set several deadlines over the past year that have come and gone with no visible results.
Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and adviser to Trump in his first term, said that Trump and his officials are building a narrative that portrays the US president as a peacemaker and that, for that reason, they are not interested in changing their assessment that Putin wants to end the war.
Both leaders, she told the AP, “need their version of events to come true” and are sticking to their version of the truth – Putin as the winner in Ukraine and Trump as a dealmaker.
Although Trump has repeatedly suggested that Putin wants peace, he has occasionally seemed frustrated by the Russian leader's lukewarm approach to negotiations.
From an intelligence perspective, Rosin said he doesn't know why U.S. officials believe the Russian leader wants to end the war.
Hill, who served as national intelligence officer in previous US administrations, said it was unclear what kind of intelligence Trump was receiving about Russia or whether he was even reading it.
He relies heavily on his chief negotiators, special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who Hill said may be having a hard time coming to terms with the fact that the damage done to the Russian economy by the war is the price Putin is willing to pay for Ukraine.
Citing reports that Witkoff attended meetings with Putin without a US State Department interpreter, she questioned whether Trump's envoys even understood what was being said in those meetings and suggested that officials may be "selectively" seeking out what they wanted to hear.
Putin is obsessed with controlling all of Ukraine and that idea is “so deep in his head” that it takes priority over everything else, including the economy, Rosin said, suggesting that the conflict will continue in some form for several more years.
He said Putin's stance could only change if the situation in Russia or on the front lines became "catastrophic," threatening his rule. For now, the Russian leader still believes he can take Ukraine and "outsmart everyone," Rosin said.
One of the reasons Putin thinks he can win militarily in Ukraine is that he is “definitely” getting some incorrect information from his own officials, the head of Estonia’s intelligence service said.
However, not all Russian officials believe they are winning the war in Ukraine, Rosin added.
“The lower you go in the hierarchy,” more people understand “how bad the situation on the ground really is,” he said, while at higher levels officials are more optimistic because they are receiving more positive reports. Rosin cited examples of officials who were told that Russian forces had taken Ukrainian settlements, even though that was not true.
The reports reaching Putin's desk may be "much more optimistic" than the actual situation on the ground, because Putin wants to see only success, Rosin said.
Hill said that both Trump and Putin are likely told what they want to hear by people who want to curry favor with them.
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