Barely five years ago, more than half of the gas consumed in Europe came from Russia, mostly through pipelines. But Moscow launched an all-out offensive against Ukraine, and European capitals wanted to import as little as possible from Russia anyway.
Soon, it is believed, Ukrainian saboteurs also destroyed Nord Stream, so that gas route was physically closed.
But is Europe, freed from its gas dependence on Russia, now rushing into a new dependence? Because today, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is increasingly arriving, and as much as 57 percent of imports of this energy source come from the US. It is estimated that this share will grow to a full 80 percent by 2030.
The United States did not export gas at all until 2016, and today it is the world's largest exporter of LNG.
Soon through Greece
The US Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), which advocates for a transition to renewable energy sources, claims in a report that the European Union is undermining its own plan adopted in 2022. The idea of that plan was to "save energy, diversify sources, and accelerate the transition to clean energy."
Admittedly, these plans allow for gas as a "cleaner" energy source than, say, coal or fuel oil. But the calculation also takes into account the fact that American liquefied natural gas is significantly more expensive than Russian.
“American LNG is the most expensive for EU consumers, but European companies are just signing new contracts,” says Ana Marija Džejler-Makarevic, IEEFA European Energy Analyst and author of the report.
Among the contracts is one signed by the new Greek consortium Atlantic-See LNG to import American gas. It will then go via a vertical pipeline through Bulgaria and Romania, potentially to Ukraine.
Serbia has also expressed a desire for liquefied gas entering Europe via the Greek Alexandroupolis.
The Greeks are meeting with the American side in seven days, with the idea of receiving 15 billion cubic meters of gas per year over the next two decades. For comparison, Serbia's entire gas consumption is three billion cubic meters.
The German company Securing Energy for Europe has a contract with the same American supplier, Venture Global, from 2023. It is actually the successor to the nationalized Gazprom branch for Germany. Under this contract, the Germans import 2,25 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year for the next two decades, from a facility in Louisiana.
Trump praises himself
US President Donald Trump has been praising himself and his success on the path to US “energy dominance.” In July last year, he brokered a deal with Brussels by threatening tariffs that would commit the EU to buying $750 billion worth of US energy annually.
“That agreement has put Europe under pressure to buy more American energy,” says Jeyler-Makarevitz. If the agreement goes into effect, he adds, it will create a “high-risk geopolitical dependence” on American LNG.
The IEEFA report states: “The deal effectively ties the EU's energy supply to a single supplier, risking energy security and undermining plans to reduce gas use.”
In fact, demand for American gas looks set to only increase as the EU plans to completely ban imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027. Hungary, one of the member states still importing Russian energy, is taking legal action against this.
"Diversification cannot mean replacing one dominant supplier with another," Raffaele Piri of the Berlin-based Ecology Institute said earlier this year. He added that Europe needs a better strategy that takes into account "today's geopolitical reality."
Windmills instead of gas?
And in political Brussels, they decided to think twice, especially after Trump recently threatened tariffs again if Greenland was not given to him.
"In these turbulent geopolitical times, Europe must be strong and united – and choose independence. That means relying on clean, secure and indigenous energy," said European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen at a summit in Hamburg in late January.
Several items are included, such as a pact for investment in offshore wind farms. Jorgensen said that Europe should also obtain gas from Canada, Qatar and Algeria.
“The future of energy in Europe is in a change of direction,” notes Džejler-Makarevic. “If the EU sticks to its plan to replace gas consumption with clean energy, then demand for gas will also fall.”
Over 120 European and other civil society organizations have sent a letter to EU leaders demanding that they abandon a trade agreement with the US that forces Europe to import energy across the Atlantic.
It is a call to reduce dependence on American fossil fuels “in solidarity with those threatened by Trump’s fossil-fuel imperialism.” This was in the wake of the US coup in Venezuela and the grab for Greenland.
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