Ukraine and Europe in their first serious quarrel

Even the happiest marriages occasionally fall into discord. The same goes for geopolitical alliances. When partners embark on a large and demanding undertaking, whether it's raising children or, perhaps, confronting the neo-imperial ambitions of a Russian despot, some tension is inevitable.

And so, after four years of almost spousal solidarity, Ukraine and its European partners are going through a period of marital strife. For the first time, signs of hostility have surfaced: both sides have become more acrimonious in their communication with each other, even exchanging accusations of “blackmail.” Fears of a breakup would be premature, however. On the contrary, they may emerge from this turbulent period even stronger. In geopolitics, as in marriage, the loudest arguments often erupt between partners who know they simply cannot part.

As in family feuds, the question of who started it depends on who you ask. On the substance of the dispute, however, it is easier to reach agreement. Ukraine and Europe have been caught off guard by the improvised geopolitics of the United States under President Donald Trump. The disagreements have been further fueled by the issue of Russian oil, which the European Union continues to import (albeit in significantly smaller quantities than before), which the authorities in Kiev perceive as a betrayal. On top of that, Ukraine's bid for EU membership is causing unease in Brussels as it - slowly but steadily - moves closer to realization.

The relationship with America should unite Ukraine and its European allies. Both would like to see Trump succeed in his previously stated intention to end the war “in 24 hours”. They also agree that the best way to do this would be for the US president to pressure his Russian counterpart to agree to ceasefire negotiations. However, Trump has shown constant condescension towards Vladimir Putin, while simultaneously inciting new conflicts (so much for that Nobel Peace Prize).

The first sign of tension between Europe and Ukraine emerged in January at Davos, after Donald Trump launched a quixotic campaign to take over Greenland from NATO ally Denmark. Europe managed to force him to back down by taking a united stance. Just as European leaders were celebrating their diplomatic success, Volodymyr Zelensky issued a scathing critique, describing Europe as a mere “salad of small and medium-sized powers” ​​that “loves to discuss the future but avoids acting today.” And you, Volodymyr?

Diplomats tried to downplay the insult, explaining it as Zelensky trying to mimic the White House’s frustration that Europe is doing too little to protect its own neighborhood. Europeans are willing to take a little prodding from their war-torn ally to keep Trump on their side. Still, such remarks have stirred quiet resentment among many in Brussels.

Trump has cut off all aid to Ukraine and regularly criticizes Zelensky publicly; in contrast, the European Union approved a €90 billion loan in December to help Ukraine. It is not European leaders who started the war in Iran that is increasing Russia’s oil revenues. They recognize that Zelensky must occasionally send a tougher message to keep Ukraine in the spotlight, but they would like him to show them the same level of respect he shows for America.

Recently, the energy dispute has exposed the tense atmosphere. In January, the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to parts of central Europe, was damaged. Zelensky claims that Russia is behind the damage and has practically refused to repair the pipeline, arguing that oil revenues feed the Kremlin's war machine. This has angered Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban won an exemption from EU sanctions in order to continue importing cheap Russian oil.

Orban, in the midst of a re-election campaign - while most European leaders would have liked to see him lose - used the dispute to block the finalization of the €90 billion package. For weeks, Ukraine refused even to allow EU officials access to assess the damage. The Europeans reluctantly sided with Orban, tying the promised aid package to Ukrainian cooperation on Druzhba. Zelensky bitterly called it blackmail, then added that he could give Orban’s address to Ukrainian soldiers to re-educate him. Even if it was a joke, it was in extremely poor taste - and earned him a public rebuke from the European Commission.

For some, this undignified episode shows the pitfalls of Ukraine’s possible EU accession. Existing members opened negotiations for Ukraine’s accession in 2023, aware that even wealthy, stable, and well-governed states take many years to meet the criteria for membership. However, as part of the peace proposals put forward by the United States late last year, the idea of ​​allowing Ukraine to join the EU on a fast-track basis, perhaps as early as January 2027, has emerged. Ukraine is understandably keen on such a shortcut.

Those already in the Union are much more cautious. They understand that the possibility of accelerated EU membership would help Zelensky push through a difficult ceasefire in the referendum, which would also entail the loss of part of Ukrainian territory. But they are bothered by the fact that external actors are pushing them into such an important decision. Attempts to resolve the dispute, for example by proposing that Ukraine receive some kind of partial membership, have so far yielded no results.

With any luck, the EU-Ukraine dispute may already be over. On March 17, Zelensky belatedly agreed to EU demands that he seriously commit to repairing the Druzhba. All sides are now ready to move on, blaming the recent thaw in relations on poor communication following the sudden departure of Zelensky's top aide in November.

Zelensky’s European allies admire his tenacity: it was precisely this toughness that was crucial for Ukraine to survive the war. Now they are feeling some of it firsthand. Given the pressure the Ukrainian president is under, there is some understanding. Provided the €90 billion package is quickly passed, the whole thing could soon be forgotten. There is no talk of a wider rift between Ukraine and Europe for now. But if such a rift were to come, this is how it would start.

Translation: A. Š.