Tachkna: Russia is not currently ready to invade other countries outside of Ukraine

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Cahkna said today that Russia is not currently ready to invade other countries outside of Ukraine, but that its activities pose a constant security threat and test of the West.

Cahkna stated that Russia currently does not have the military capacity for a wider conflict, as its forces have been significantly depleted by the war in Ukraine.

"We don't see the capacity to invade Estonia or other countries," he said.

However, he warned that the situation could change, as Russia is rebuilding its military infrastructure and continuing its provocations.

As an example, he cited the violation of Estonian airspace by a Russian military aircraft on Wednesday, which lasted less than a minute.

"It's a test and a provocation. Russia is trying to see how NATO will react, how united and ready we are," Cahkna said.

He added that similar incidents are frequent, including a more serious case from September last year, when three Russian fighter jets, fully armed, spent about 12 minutes in Estonian airspace.

According to him, the aim of such moves is to test NATO's resolve and send political messages, but also to create pressure on the region.

Cahkna stressed that the West's key task is not to allow Russia to make a wrong assessment.

"If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin misjudges the situation, it could lead to escalation. That's why we need to be clear and firm," he said, adding that deterrence is based on a clear message that any attack would have a high price.

He pointed out that the security situation today is significantly different than it was a few years ago and that NATO has increased its presence on the eastern flank, including permanently deployed allied troops in the Baltic states.

Speaking about the broader context, Cahkna assessed that Russia is trying to divide allies and weaken the unity of the West, but that NATO's response has recently been "clear and strong."

At the same time, he warned that while there is currently no immediate danger of a wider invasion, the threat remains long-term and requires continued investment in defense and preparedness.

In this context, he reiterated that Estonia is increasing defense spending and strengthening its capabilities, including cybersecurity, as part of the overall national defense concept.

He stated that last year alone there were around 12.000 cyber attacks by various entities.

"Every citizen knows what to do in the event of a crisis or war. We are ready to defend ourselves and that was a clear decision after the restoration of independence," he said, adding that they have reservists, a volunteer organization, the Defense League, and that the private sector is also in the system, especially in the field of cyber defense.

He also added that the Estonian people do not take freedom for granted and that this time they will fight.