RFE/RL: Putin's approval rating has dropped significantly in Russia

Perhaps the reason is the widespread state-ordered mobile internet outages that have disrupted the lives of millions of Russians, especially in Moscow.

Perhaps the reason is the Ukrainian drone attacks that disrupted Russian air travel plans and severely limited Russian oil exports in the Baltic Sea.

Perhaps the reason is the mass destruction of infected livestock, which has caused outrage among farmers in Siberia.

Perhaps the reason is the war against Ukraine, which, despite the Kremlin's promises of a quick victory, has been going on for five years, with Ukrainian forces holding Russia at a near stalemate, while the number of dead and wounded in the war has exceeded 1,2 million.

Regardless of the reason, the fact is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not as popular as he once was.

In recent weeks, a series of opinion polls – including two conducted by state-affiliated researchers – have recorded a decline in Putin’s support. The FOM, whose main client is the presidential administration, a powerful policy-making body within the Kremlin, recorded the lowest level of public trust in Putin since September 2022.

The drop in approval ratings does not mean a political crisis for the Kremlin; Putin remains the country's undisputed leader. Kremlin officials – primarily the presidential administration – have been manipulating the election process for years, trying to create the perception that Russians have a genuine choice among their elected leaders, a practice known as "managed democracy."

Still, Kremlin officials are sensitive to shifts in public opinion, experts say, and the current shift is being examined internally by administration officials tasked with managing the political system.

"This is noteworthy and is supported by various other 'events and incidents,'" said Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, director of the Russia Institute at King's College London, pointing to a recent case involving a lawyer known for his fierce attacks on Kremlin opponents who ended up in a psychiatric hospital after criticizing Putin.

The change in mood could be explained by several factors, she said: disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks; disruptions in messaging apps such as Telegram, WhatsApp, and the internet; unfulfilled expectations and unfulfilled promises for the U.S.-backed peace talks for Ukraine; and general fatigue from the prolonged war that is increasingly taking a toll on the economy.

"This does not mean that a revolution is on the horizon, but the rise in tensions is not good for the Kremlin," she said.

"We still don't have enough data to link specific social processes in specific social groups to this downward trend," said Konstantin Gaze, a Tel Aviv-based sociologist and former adviser to the Russian government. "Who exactly is tired, disappointed or angry?"

"We've seen major interventions in everyday life – internet shutdowns and restrictions – but we're also seeing a more permanent trend," he said. "The war is penetrating deeper and deeper into the heart of European Russia. Drones, attacks on oil refineries and so on. These things accumulate over time."

Cows and technology

For years, technology regulators – and security agencies – have tightened control over the internet inside Russia, installing surveillance equipment, enacting restrictive laws, forcing tech companies to be sold to Kremlin-linked owners, and slowing down websites and apps that don't comply.

However, last year, officials resorted to shutting down mobile internet service in a number of regions.

The Kremlin justified the outages as a way to prevent Ukrainian drones from using Russian networks for navigation. However, along with restrictions on popular apps like Telegram and WhatsApp, they disrupted the lives of millions of people, especially in Moscow.

A survey released last month by the Levada Center, one of the last remaining independent pollsters in Russia, showed a significant increase in the number of Russians facing problems with the internet – and a growing number of those dissatisfied with government moves to clamp down on Telegram and Vocap.

On the other hand, in early February, veterinary authorities in several Siberian regions ordered the quarantine and culling of tens of thousands of cows and other livestock, citing rabies and another highly contagious bacterial disease. Breeders and herders complained, saying the move was excessive and destroying livelihoods in poorer towns and villages. Some complained that the compensation paid for the destroyed livestock was inadequate.

Several of them even protested in Red Square in Moscow, a rare political act these days.

The Russian economy is also slowing markedly, after years of rapid growth fueled by government war spending. Inflation has pushed up prices, leading to a sharp rise in interest rates. Wages are stagnant.

Don't mention the war.

And then there's the war in Ukraine, which turned four on February 24th.

US President Donald Trump made ending the war a priority when he took office in January 2025. His special envoys have met with Putin repeatedly, and his negotiators have organized multiple rounds of bilateral and trilateral talks.

However, the talks have stalled.

Part of the blame lies with the US and Israeli attacks on Iran that began on February 28. Also responsible are Russia's tough demands for territory and security guarantees, which Ukraine says are unacceptable and potentially dangerous.

In addition, the Ukrainian army – despite being smaller and largely underequipped in terms of artillery, ammunition, and heavy weapons – has prevented Russian troops from making rapid progress in achieving the Kremlin’s war goals. It has also inflicted astronomical losses on Russian forces.

According to FOM polls, the last time Putin's approval rating dropped significantly was in September 2022, seven months after the start of the war.

Then the Kremlin realized that the war would not end quickly – some predicted that Russia would conquer Ukraine within days or weeks. Putin ordered a massive mobilization, which shook Russian society and caused an exodus of hundreds of thousands of people from the country.

Inside Russia, dissent has been almost completely suppressed. Yevgeny Prigozhin, a St. Petersburg restaurant owner who built a formidable private mercenary army and then staged a failed uprising in 2023, was one of the most vocal critics of the war's conduct. He died two months later in a plane crash believed to be an assassination.

Last month, Ilya Remeslo, a bombastic Kremlin promoter, struck a nerve with the public when he published a scathing critique of the war and the general state of the country. He also attacked Putin himself, calling him a war criminal and claiming he was destroying Russia.

Less than two days after the article was published, Remeslo was admitted to a psychiatric hospital, although it is unclear whether this was voluntary or involuntary. His current whereabouts are unknown.

"What happened now? A perfect storm has begun," said Yelena Koneva, a sociologist and public opinion expert, in a commentary published by Ekho, a well-known former Moscow radio station.

"Right now, this huge pile of snow called 'support for Putin' is starting to melt. It's not going to collapse all at once; it's melting and melting and melting," she wrote. "It's a gradual, truly significant change. This is the first sign and it can't be stopped by further repression – there are too many reasons."