Hungarian elections: answers to the most important questions

Hungary is facing its most important parliamentary election since the voluntary withdrawal of Hungarian communists from power in 1989/90. At stake is whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his system of government can be removed in the election or not.

For the first time since 2010, there is a real possibility that an opposition party will win – the conservative Tisa party, led by Orban's challenger Peter Magyar.

How did Orban reshape Hungary?

After his first electoral victory with a two-thirds majority in the spring of 2010, Orban proclaimed a "system of national cooperation" (NER). In the state apparatus, administration and judiciary, as well as in the civil service, a change of elites was carried out, and key positions were filled with his loyal associates. Hungary was transformed into a highly centralized state.

Orban has weakened the system of government control as a whole, thereby reducing the possibilities for political counterbalance. Most of the print and electronic media have been placed under government control – directly or indirectly through companies and foundations close to Fidesz. The autonomy of universities has been abolished, and a significant part of state and public property has been transferred to the control of foundations linked to Orban.

Experts therefore describe Hungary as a "hybrid system" between democracy and dictatorship.

Why do many Hungarians want a change of government?

Orbán's economic and tax policies benefit his upper-middle-class social base. The material situation of many other Hungarian citizens, however, has worsened in recent years. This is compounded by the poor state of public infrastructure, healthcare and education systems, as well as widespread dissatisfaction with corruption and blatant cases of illicit enrichment.

At the same time, many Hungarians are tired of the verbal atmosphere of near-civil war that Orban is encouraging – for example, from the absurd portrayal of Ukraine as the embodiment of evil or the constant labeling of all critics as enemies and traitors to the fatherland.

What do the polls say and how reliable are they?

Hungarian opinion pollsters believe that the majority of voters in the country want a change of government. Independent opinion pollsters have been predicting a significant lead for the Tisza party over Orban's Fidesz for more than a year.

However, such estimates only provide a limited reflection of the chances of individual candidates in constituencies. In addition, Fidesz's electorate – primarily senior citizens and pensioners in smaller towns and villages – is not fully covered by the polls. As a result, the poll results may be misleading.

However, most election analysts believe that Orban's removal in the election is more likely.

Is it even possible to remove Orban's regime in elections?

After coming to power in 2010, the Fidesz party implemented major changes to the electoral system, with a stronger emphasis on the majority principle, which still gives the party a significant advantage today.

Of the 199 members of parliament, 106 are elected in direct constituencies by simple majority. Constituencies favoring Fidesz tend to be smaller, so fewer votes are needed to elect one member of parliament. In the 2022 elections, Fidesz won about 53 percent of the vote, but it won significantly more constituencies, giving it almost 68 percent of the seats in parliament – ​​a two-thirds majority.

Ethnic Hungarians from neighboring countries who hold Hungarian citizenship can vote for party lists by mail. In contrast, Hungarians living and working in Western Europe, who are largely critical of Orbán, can only vote at embassies and a small number of consulates, but not by mail.

Hungarian election experts therefore consider the electoral system unfair. A change of government is therefore considerably more difficult – but possible.

Could Orban's regime rig the elections?

Election experts in Hungary believe that vote falsification at the polling stations themselves is unlikely to occur, as the opposition Tisa is organizing a parallel vote count.

However, there is room for manipulation in postal voting, which is used by Hungarians from minority communities in neighboring countries. Their votes could provide Orban with one or two additional parliamentary seats. In addition, vote-buying in poor regions of Hungary is being intensely discussed after a documentary exposed the practice. Would Orban accept defeat and are post-election conflicts possible?

Orban has not yet spoken directly on the issue. He has only said that he has sometimes won and sometimes lost elections and that Hungary is a democracy.

If he were to lose the election, it would depend on his stance and clear message whether his supporters would take to the streets en masse or not.

If Orban were to declare victory, mass demonstrations, even violent clashes, are likely, as anger and resentment towards his regime have meanwhile become widespread.

What would Peter the Great do after the change of government?

The most important goals of Peter Magyar and his Tisza party are to distance Hungary from Russia and return the country as a reliable ally of the European Union and NATO – but not without limitations.

In its policy towards migration and Ukraine, Hungary wants to partially or fully maintain the current Hungarian line, but without a complete confrontation with the European Union.

On the domestic front, the Hungarian is announcing a tough crackdown on corruption and "system change." This includes, among other things, a fairer electoral system, limiting the prime minister's term to two election cycles, and a new constitution.

Orban and other senior politicians from his entourage could face charges of corruption and high treason.

Is it possible to dismantle Orban's system?

Orban has taken numerous measures to protect himself from losing power. Many changes to the system require a two-thirds majority in parliament, and many key positions are filled for long periods of time.

Because of this, Orban's so-called "deep state" could easily sabotage a government with only a simple majority. But even with a two-thirds majority, it could be years before Tisza would completely change Orban's system.