Trump questions NATO values: Russia's neighbors in the Baltic region are watching his statements with concern

US President Donald Trump has once again questioned the value of NATO. Russia's neighbors in the Baltic region are following his statements with concern.

During the past six weeks of the US-Israeli war against Iran, several NATO members have stood by. While some US allies have cautiously withheld support for military action and others have outright banned the use of their military infrastructure, the Baltic states have taken a different approach.

All three countries described Operation Epic Fury as understandable, given Iran's nuclear program, Tehran's threats to neighboring countries, and its support for Russian aggression against Ukraine, as Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs put it.

Baltic leaders also welcomed the assassination of Iran's supreme leader in late February, saying they saw it as a new opportunity for the Iranian people to determine their own future.

Estonia has signaled that it is ready to consider deploying its ships to help clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Lithuania has gone a step further, expressing its readiness to consider providing troops to assist Washington if such a request is made.

The rationale for this support was best articulated by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda.

"We cannot, on the one hand, say that the presence of American troops on the territory of Lithuania is something that is taken for granted and that we simply accept it for granted, but when we are asked to contribute to international missions, say that it does not concern us," he told Lithuanian media.

For the Baltic states, the support of the United States, their most powerful ally, is crucial to their own security, especially in relation to the threat posed by Russia.

Just this week, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the three Baltic countries of "serious consequences" for allegedly using their airspace for drones attacking Russia - accusations that all three countries vehemently deny.

Avoiding Irritating Donald Trump

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the Baltic states have once again positioned themselves as "model allies." This is how US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described them, along with Poland and the Gulf states.

Like Poland, the Baltic states were among the first NATO members to respond to the US president's call to increase defense spending. They are now among the leaders in the Alliance. Poland will allocate 4,5 percent of GDP to defense by 2025, Lithuania 4 percent, Latvia 3,7 percent, and Estonia 3,4 percent. By comparison, the United States spent 3,2 percent of its GDP on it.

Researcher Sergei Potapkins of the Latvian Institute of International Relations described the Baltic countries' policy as "an established, recognizable style," aimed at "trying not to irritate Donald Trump and, in general, not to enter his field of attention, in order to continue the approach towards the Baltic states that has existed since 2022 for as long as possible."

The current approach, deterrence through intimidation, assumes that an adversary will not dare attack NATO countries if it is convinced that it cannot achieve its goals. As former US President Joe Biden and European leaders have repeatedly stated, NATO is prepared to defend every inch of its territory.

This strategy replaced the earlier strategy of deterrence by retaliation. According to Potapkins, this earlier approach did not suit the Baltic states, as it implied the possibility of partial occupation of their territory.

Planning for unforeseen circumstances

In reality, Trump's skeptical remarks about defending NATO allies came as no surprise in the Baltic states. A 2025 poll in Latvia found that only 43 percent of respondents believed – or tended to believe – that NATO would be prepared to fight for their country if it were attacked, while 41 percent thought it was unlikely.

Such awareness of one's own responsibility for defense encouraged the development of national guards in the Baltic states – voluntary defense forces tasked with preventing the occupation of the region in the event of a Russian attack.

Sigita Struberga, Secretary General of the Latvian Transatlantic Organization, says Latvians are increasingly realizing that there is no separate NATO army, but that "NATO is us."

"Considering the number of those serving compulsory military service and those in the professional army, that number is still not enough. We need the National Guard," Struberga tells DW.

Strengthening NATO's presence

As part of preparations for a reduced US participation in NATO, Potapkins points to the deployment of allied military contingents from other countries. Such forces are stationed in each of the Baltic states.

In Lithuania, this includes the German 45th Armored Brigade. It currently has around 1.800 soldiers, and there are plans to increase their numbers to 4.800 soldiers and 200 civilian personnel by 2027.

The Canadian multinational brigade in Latvia has about 2.000 members. In Estonia, about 1.500 soldiers are stationed as part of a multinational battle group led by the United Kingdom.

"Increasing the contingent is now a top priority for both diplomats and the military in talks with partners. This is one of those cases where more is better," says Potapkins.

In addition, she argues that the Baltic states should act quickly to prepare their military infrastructure – anti-tank “dragon teeth” and anti-drone systems – in case the United States revises its role in NATO. If that happens, other NATO allies are likely to focus on their own security, leaving the Baltic states little room to pursue such projects.