Starmer before the court of voters

British voters will go to the polls today in an election that could hasten the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's troubled tenure and confirm that an increasingly divided United Kingdom has entered an era of messy multi-party politics.

Starmer's centre-left Labour Party is expected to suffer a heavy blow in local government elections across England, as well as for semi-autonomous parliaments in Scotland and Wales.

With the prime minister's popularity at a low ebb due to a weak economy and persistent doubts about his judgment, rival parties are presenting today's vote as a referendum on Starmer and his two-year-old government. "Vote Reform, sack Starmer" is the campaign slogan of the far-right Reform UK party.

The next parliamentary election does not have to be held before 2029, but a heavy defeat could encourage the restive Labor Party to rebel against the unpopular leader, according to the Associated Press (AP).

Less than two years after winning a landslide election victory, "Keir Starmer has become a channel through which citizens' disappointment and disillusionment are expressed," said Luke Trill of the More in Common polling agency.

A former human rights lawyer, then Attorney General for England and Wales between 2008 and 2013, Starmer (63) became the first Labour prime minister since 2010 in July 2024. His popularity plummeted after a series of missteps.

The government is struggling to deliver on its promises of economic growth, rebuild ailing public services and ease the cost of living, a task made even more difficult by the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The prime minister was further weakened by his disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a compromised friend of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, as British ambassador to Washington.

Labour is forecast to lose well over half of its 2.500 local council seats in England, with votes expected to fall to parties on both the left and right, particularly the Green Party in London and Reform UK in the working-class, former Labour strongholds of the north of England.

“This election is a very, very dangerous moment for Keir Starmer,” said Tony Travers, a professor in the Department of Public Administration at the London School of Economics. He added that after a series of political upheavals and an economy in which “there’s not much money for anything ... his opponents are taking up positions.”

Starmer has already weathered a crisis in February, when some Labour MPs, including the party's leader in Scotland, called on him to resign over the appointment of Mendelssohn.

The government is struggling to deliver on its promised economic growth, rebuild ailing public services and ease the cost of living. The prime minister was further weakened by the disastrous decision to appoint Peter Mendelsohn as ambassador to Washington.

The AP reports that a heavy election defeat could lead to a swift attempt to unseat Starmer as party leader by a prominent rival, such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner or Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Any challenger would need to secure the support of 80 MPs, or a fifth of the party's caucus in the House of Commons, to trigger a leadership contest. In Burnham's case, he would first have to be elected to parliament before he could take over the party leadership.

Another possibility, as the AP writes, is that Starmer faces pressure from the party to set a deadline for his departure, after the election of a new leader has been properly conducted.

“His MPs are not sure if now is the right time to remove him,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “So the execution of the sentence could be delayed.”

But, Bale added, "it's a question of when he'll leave, not if he'll leave."

Labour's losses have been good news for decades for its main rival, the centre-right Conservative Party. The Conservatives, however, are burdened by a tarnished reputation after 14 turbulent years in power, which ends in 2024. Nigel Farage's Reform UK, the left-leaning Greens, and the Welsh and Scottish nationalist parties are expected to benefit most from this election.

Opponents have increased pressure on Reform UK and the Greens, seeking to halt their rise. Farage is facing questions over a £5m ($6,8m) donation he accepted from a cryptocurrency billionaire in 2024 but failed to declare. He claims it was a personal gift.

The Greens, who under leader Zak Polanski, a self-proclaimed “eco-populist,” are emphasizing their pro-Palestinian credibility, have excluded several candidates for anti-Semitic posts on social media.

Travers said Britain was moving from a "two-party system" - in which the Liberal Democrats were usually the third party - "to something that looks more like a five-party system".

This is great news for Rhyn ap Jorvert, leader of Plaid Cymru, or the Party of Wales, who has a strong chance of leading the country's semi-autonomous government.

“The old politics are the past,” he said. “Labor will not win this election.”

Labour has dominated Welsh politics for a century and has been in power in Cardiff since the Welsh government was established in 1999. Polls suggest Labour could fall to third place, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, who are running a close race.

The AP writes that a Plaid Cymru victory would mean that three out of four parts of the United Kingdom have leaders who advocate independence. The Northern Ireland government is led by the Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein, in a power-sharing arrangement with the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party.

The Scottish National Party, which has been in power in Edinburgh since 2007, has said it will seek a new referendum on independence if it wins a majority today. Scottish voters rejected leaving the United Kingdom in a 2014 referendum.

Plaid Cymru says a vote on secession is not on the agenda for the next few years, although independence remains the party's ultimate goal. In the short term, it wants greater powers to raise taxes and more control over how money is spent.

“Britain needs a fundamental redesign,” said ap Jorvert. “This is an unequal union.”