Is there a conspiracy against Putin and what role does Shoigu play: Fear of assassination attempts and coup d'état?

A European intelligence agency is reporting on an alleged conspiracy by a section of the Russian elite against Russian President Vladimir Putin. How much truth is there in this, and what role does Sergei Shoigu, Putin's longtime confidant, play?

The Kremlin has drastically tightened security measures around President Vladimir Putin. The move is reportedly being prompted by growing fears of assassination attempts and coups. The information comes from a report by a European intelligence agency, cited by the Russian investigative media outlet "Important Stories" (Ва́жные исто́рии) and reported by the American CNN and the Financial Times.

The alleged coup plot in Russia has divided observers into two camps. One side believes that such a scenario is likely, and that there is a direct threat to Putin. As evidence of this, they point to successful operations carried out by Ukrainian intelligence agencies inside and outside Russia. The other side, however, considers such a thing unlikely, and sees the information that has emerged as part of a campaign designed to destabilize the Russian elite.

Most experts, however, agree that Putin is concerned about his personal security. They also agree that tensions within the Russian elite are rising – due in part to economic hardships, as well as pressure from security services on technocrats.

Shoigu labeled a "destabilizing factor"

The intelligence report classifies Sergei Shoigu — Russia's former Minister of Emergency Situations and Minister of Defense, and currently Secretary of the Russian Security Council — as a "potentially destabilizing factor." Although he has reportedly lost his former influence, the former minister could still pose a potential risk to Putin's power structure, says Roman Anin, founder of Important Stories, an independent Russian investigative media outlet based in Riga.

Anin suggests that in Russia, "tensions between security services have increased" and "clan battles" have intensified, and that Putin's role as a mediator between elites has diminished.

"Shoigu has been the leader of an extremely influential clan for years. As Minister of Defense and Head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, he has managed to bring a large number of people under his command and integrate them into corrupt networks. It is, in essence, something akin to a mafia omerta," says Anin in an interview with Deutsche Welle (DW).

Sergei Shoigu and Vladimir Putin have been longtime friends. They have vacationed together, and photos released by the Kremlin show them picking mushrooms or fishing together in the taiga. Shoigu headed the Ministry of Emergency Situations under Putin for 12 years. Putin appointed him defense minister in 2012, and in 2024 he was dismissed and replaced by Andrei Belousov. According to observers, Shoigu fell out of favor, among other things, due to his failures on the front in Ukraine.

Given the criminal prosecution of his former deputies, Shoigu has reason to fear that the same fate could befall him, Anin says. The latest in the series of arrests was the detention of Ruslan Calikov in March of this year. The former deputy defense minister is accused of founding a criminal organization. Its members allegedly embezzled public funds and engaged in bribery between 2017 and 2024. Timur Ivanov, who was arrested in 2024, was sentenced to 13 years in prison in a similar case. Pavel Popov received a 19-year sentence. The criminal case against Dmitry Bulgakov, who was also a deputy defense minister, is still ongoing.

Putin fears for his own security

According to reports from a European intelligence agency cited by the "Big Stories" portal, Putin fears a potential assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite – and one that could involve drones. In April, the anonymous Russian Telegram channel "VCHK-OGPU" reported that the Kremlin fears threats related to domestic developments. It spoke, among other things, of potential drone attacks organized directly in Moscow, and not controlled from outside Russia. The traditional military parade on Red Square, which marks Victory Day – marking the end of World War II – was reportedly on the verge of being almost completely canceled. Since intelligence agencies considered it extremely dangerous to hold such an event this year, Putin was allegedly very close to canceling the parade altogether.

Meanwhile, security measures in the capital are being tightened. In several districts, communication links have been cut, mobile electronic warfare systems have been deployed in the city center, and security protocols inside the Kremlin have been tightened. Because Putin is genuinely concerned about his safety, the Kremlin ultimately decided to hold a smaller parade, political scientist Ekaterina Shulman wrote on her Telegram channel. She also notes that Putin has reduced the frequency of his public appearances: "When security is the top priority, then the safest way is to simply not appear anywhere at all."

According to political analyst Abbas Galyamov, the successful assassinations of Russian generals – attributed to Ukrainian intelligence services – are also a cause for concern for Putin. "Accordingly, security is more important to Putin than his public image."

Could Shoigu lead a coup?

Speaking to DW, Gallyamov claims that internal conflicts within Russia's security agencies and elites are intensifying, with certain factions acting with increasing independence - bypassing the Kremlin's traditional role as a mediator. However, in his opinion, the elites are still avoiding open confrontation, choosing to wait and see how things develop, so that they can adapt to it. Gallyamov, however, remains skeptical about Shoigu's role. He sees the former minister as a weakened figure who lacks the necessary resources and support.

Ekaterina Shulman notes that the reports published by the Financial Times and CNN do not speak of a "conspiracy led by Shoigu."

British political scientist and Russia expert Mark Galeotti dismisses reports of an alleged plot against Putin as "deliberate disinformation." He argues that they do not reflect a real threat. In a commentary for the British weekly The Spectator, he points to a "sudden wave of reports" that "look suspiciously like a psychological operation." The aim, he suggests, is to "stir up paranoia among the Russian elite," rather than provide a "serious assessment" of the situation. According to Galeotti, Sergei Shoigu lacks the authority and the people in power do not trust him enough to carry out a coup.

Why won't the elite overthrow Putin?

Ruling elites are not a monolithic group with common interests, political analyst and former employee of the Russian Central Bank Aleksandra Prokopenko emphasizes on the YouTube channel Carnegie Politics. This, she argues, is why there have been no significant coup attempts so far. The exception, she notes, was the uprising in June 2023 led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner mercenary group.

Prokopenko describes Putin's power system as a series of pyramids, built around individual patrons and linked by the distribution of resources and access to decision-making processes. In this model, the participants lack a common coordination center and therefore there are no prerequisites for any collective action. As long as the representatives of this system get more from Putin than they could without him, there is no incentive for open conflict, Prokopenko says.

However, she does not rule out the possibility that the situation could change if resources within the system begin to dwindle. Due to the war and sanctions, that "pie" has already been reduced and is now being distributed in favor of the military and its related industries. This intensifies competition among influential groups and undermines the stability of the existing coalition. At the same time, Prokopenko notes, various factions within the system are trying to direct Putin's attention to their specific interests.

Prokopenko characterizes this not as a fight to change political direction, but as a fight for access to resources and a position at the very center of the decision-making process. In her view, the ambiguity of the system’s rules works in Putin’s favor. It divides elites, forces them to demonstrate their loyalty, and serves as a reminder that property rights in Russia depend not on the rule of law but on the political will of the Kremlin.