UNHCR: In light of the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, more than half of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe by 2029.

In light of the course of this year's Russia-Ukraine war, more than half of the current number of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe by the end of 2029, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said.

This assessment is based on several assumptions, namely that Russia retains control over the occupied territories and that the temporary protection status of Ukrainian refugees in the European Union ends in March 2027.

In such a scenario, UNHCR predicts that 2,9 million Ukrainian refugees (56 percent of their current number) will remain in Europe until at least 2029.

The UNHCR describes a second scenario, which is the status quo, which means the continuation of Russian aggression.

In that case, it is projected that 5,16 million Ukrainian refugees (99 percent of their current number) will remain in Europe by the end of 2029.

In the third scenario, which predicts a Ukrainian victory with the return of the occupied territories by the end of the year, UNHCR estimates that the number of refugees would drop to 32 percent.