Britain's return to the EU possible, but without old privileges

Nearly a decade after Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union (EU), the question of its possible return to the bloc is once again at the top of political debate in London. But the prevailing view among European officials and veterans of the negotiations is that a possible return would mean membership on normal terms, without the special treatment that London once enjoyed.

Wes Streeting, a possible candidate for Labour leader, said that leaving the EU was a "catastrophic mistake" and said that Britain should return to the bloc "one day", putting Brexit back at the top of the political agenda ahead of the expected race to succeed Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The Brexit debate has largely simmered in the background of British politics for years. Leaders have tended to sidestep it, preferring not to rekindle the bitter divisions that marked the referendum. But Streeting, an EU supporter and former health minister who used his resignation last week to criticize Starmer's faltering government, has turned his attention to Brexit.

Although his allies say this could not happen without an election or referendum to gain the consent of British voters, his comments have reopened long-dormant divisions over Europe within the top echelons of the ruling Labour Party.

Streeting's words have surprised Labour, with MPs and the wider membership wondering why he would, as one party official put it, "attach himself to a marginal issue that the public left behind years ago".

In a speech on Saturday that sounded like a thinly veiled launch of the party leadership campaign, Streeting said: “Britain’s future is with Europe and one day, one day, back in the European Union.”

That speech, which offered only a vaguely defined end goal, opened up the possibility that Brexit could overshadow his rival's attempt to challenge Starmer, giving Nigel Farage's populist, anti-European Reform UK party a reason to mobilize supporters.

Allies of Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and the frontrunner in the leadership race, suggested that it was merely an attempt to complicate his bid to win the parliamentary seat he needs to challenge Starmer's leadership.

Veterans of Brexit negotiations have assessed that Britain would not be able to rejoin the EU under the special conditions it enjoyed in the past.

Georg Rikeles, a former adviser to the EU's Brexit task force, said he expected member states to take a "very cordial and open" but also a "sober and pragmatic" stance towards Britain's membership application.

“There is a strategic need for the EU and the UK to work together, but I don’t think there would be a willingness to open up new decades of special treatment for Britain,” he told The Guardian. “The price of re-entry would be membership on normal terms.”

During its 47 years of EU membership, the United Kingdom has managed to secure an unprecedented special status: exemptions from key policies, such as the single currency and the Schengen zone without passport controls, a rebate on payments to the EU budget, but also an important role in setting the European agenda.

Sandro Gozzi, Italy's Minister for European Affairs from 2014 to 2018, said that he would "certainly start" from those standard conditions, responding to the question of whether Britain, in the event of rejoining the EU, would have to adopt the euro and enter the Schengen zone.

“It is clear that there is no longer a one-size-fits-all suit and it is clear that the UK’s negotiations would have to cover all the issues that are foreseen for each candidate.”

Goci, who is now a member of the European Parliament and chairs the EP delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly for the EU-UK Partnership, predicted that EU member states would welcome Britain's re-membership application, despite the uncertainty over the possibility of Farage becoming prime minister.

It is clear that there is no longer a one-size-fits-all suit and it is clear that the UK's negotiations would have to cover all the issues envisaged for each candidate.

Andy Burnham has previously said he wants Britain to rejoin the bloc in his lifetime. However, he clarified on Monday that if he were to become prime minister in the short term, he would not try to make it happen.

Goci said: “Brexit was a great disaster for the United Kingdom, but also a loss for the EU… If, at a time of such great global upheaval, the United Kingdom were to decide to seek a return to the EU, I think that would be a great victory for our political model.”

He stressed that it would not be a victory over the United Kingdom, but a confirmation of "our attractiveness."

Britain, he continued, has other options, such as “linking into the single market” and a founding role in a new European Security Council – a proposed defence leadership body that could include up to a dozen member states, but whose details have not yet been fully worked out.

"I don't think the options are limited to full accession. But it's up to the UK to decide, to figure out what it wants," he said.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, known for his pro-British stance, also warned London not to expect an arrangement similar to the former “de facto membership of its own choosing.” British elites, he said earlier this month, must “embrace” the basic logic of the European project: that greater benefits come in return for pooling certain aspects of sovereignty.

Rickelles, who is now assistant director of the European Policy Center, said many in European capitals and Brussels welcome the signals coming from the United Kingdom, but stressed that it is still far from a formal process.

“The EU would need to see a lasting national consensus that the UK has truly changed its mind.”

Drawing on his own experience, he said: “The EU can work with a UK that knows what it wants. It has a harder time with a UK that wants the benefits of integration while maintaining a policy of separation.”

"The Brexit world is gone," he said, alluding to Russian militarism, Chinese economic coercion and Donald Trump's "America First" policy.

“I think anyone who thinks sensibly would have to see that the UK and the EU are part of the same strategic space. If that were the national consensus - for the UK to rejoin the EU - I think the EU would get involved fully and very seriously. But are we there yet? We’re not there yet.”

European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho declined to comment on the possible terms of the talks. Speaking of the upcoming EU-UK summit, expected in early July, she said: “There are discussions about closer cooperation in a number of areas. That is what we are doing now, preparing for the next summit, rather than speculating on big, new or renewed issues.”

Shortly after winning the 2024 election, Starmer promised to "reset" relations with Europe, hoping to draw a line under years of strained ties with the 27-nation bloc and secure new economic and other agreements with Britain's largest trading partner.

A year after coming to power, the Prime Minister claimed that the broad agreement signed at the UK-EU summit in London, held in a positive atmosphere, “gives us unprecedented access to the EU market, the best that any country has”, and that it will bring “cheaper food and energy” to the British people.

After Labour’s heavy defeat in local elections this month, Starmer again promised that his government would be “recognizable by rebuilding relations with Europe” and by returning Britain “to the very heart of Europe.” Yet concrete progress so far has been limited at best.

The Guardian writes that the main obstacles to any significant improvement lie in the "red lines" that Starmer's government set before the election: no return to the customs union, no return to the single market, and no return to freedom of movement.

Although some member states complain that the European Commission could be more creative and flexible in negotiating special arrangements with Britain, the prevailing view in the bloc is that the closer London wants a relationship with the EU, the more it must comply with its rules.

Any move in this direction, such as a planned law that would allow the UK to dynamically align with single market rules without the usual parliamentary vote, has been fiercely attacked by Reform UK and the Conservatives as a “backdoor Brexit undoing”.

Polls show that just over half of Britons support returning to the EU, but that support weakens when voters are presented with possible compromises - from the free movement of people between Britain and the EU to the possibility that the country might one day have to adopt the euro.