Putin between peace and decades of war

President Vladimir Putin faced two competing visions of Russia's future today as he hosted his main annual investment conference, in the shadow of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Some participants at the glamorous International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg said that Russia should continue the fight and prepare for a global conflict with the West.

Others pointed to the economic benefits that would come from ending the war, which almost reached the forum's doorstep when Ukrainian drones hit an oil terminal and naval base in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, sending smoke billowing over parts of the city.

The opposing narratives reflect the debate among political and business leaders about what the future holds for Russia, as well as the internal pressures on Putin after more than four years of war in Ukraine.

Putin's deputy chief of staff, Maxim Oreshkin, told the conference that it was pointless to expect a return to the old ways or that the West would lift sanctions.

"You don't need to wait for something to change, for something to return; it won't return and it won't change," said Oreshkin.

Putin, who is 73, has long ruled by balancing the positions of different factions in the Kremlin who are fighting for influence over the man who has been Russia's undisputed leader for a quarter of a century.

Signs that the three trillion dollar economy is stagnating, while the war drags on with no sign of an end, have strengthened the arguments of some members of the "elite" that the war should end and peace should be achieved with the mediation of US President Donald Trump.

However, some nationalists see the war as just the first phase of a much deeper global confrontation with what they argue is a declining West, which could mean years - and even decades - of possible global war.

“We have to admit that we will be at war for years to come, maybe even decades,” said Andrei Bezrukov, a former spy who was arrested by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in 2010 while living under a false identity in the United States.

"It could be a very hot war, or it could be a creeping war. Even if it spreads to other regions, we will have two generations that can essentially be considered to be at war. And we have to learn to live with that war," Bezrukov said to applause from the packed hall.

Nationalists say that Russia must get itself in order or face possible collapse and destruction.

Among the ideas put forward by nationalists at the conference, often presented as Russia's answer to the World Economic Forum in Davos, were speeding up the decision-making process, developing technology and changing the perception of the Russian military in Russian society.

Pavilions that once gathered every year for financiers from Western companies like Goldman Sachs now displayed drones and weapons, while cybersecurity companies touted facial recognition technology and advanced cyber defense programs using artificial intelligence.

Russia controls about a fifth of Ukrainian territory after Putin's decision to send tens of thousands of troops in February 2022, but its progress on the battlefield has slowed this year.

Russia has captured most of Donbas, a region in eastern Ukraine, in fighting that began there in 2014, but has failed to conquer the remaining 10 percent or so.

Ukraine says it will not withdraw its forces from the part of Donbas it still holds and will never recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory that Moscow has seized. Russia originally aimed to control all of Ukraine.

US-brokered peace talks remain stalled, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova saying that Washington is "unfortunately" now paying less attention to the process due to the crisis over Iran.

Several prominent figures in Russia have previously tried to warn Putin about the growing economic costs of the war.

As Ukrainian drones and missiles target Russian oil facilities and military-industrial complex facilities, Kirill Dmitriev, Moscow's point person for contacts with the Donald Trump administration, is highlighting the potential economic benefits of a peace agreement.

“The question is: is this war ending or are we looking at a much more difficult future?” one Russian participant told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic.

Putin claims that Moscow does not intend to attack NATO, whose member states together have an economic power that far surpasses Russia's, even though Russia is the world's largest supplier of natural resources.

However, ultranationalist Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin, whose daughter Darya was killed in a car bomb explosion in 2022, which Moscow blamed on Ukraine, told reporters that the war in Ukraine “will either end with Russia’s victory or it will never end.”

"We need to gather all our strength, muster all our will, and stop pretending that we are a peaceful country that goes to barbecues or on vacation," he said.

Dugin said that Russia would not attack the West. But when asked to briefly describe Russia's relations with the West in the coming years, he simply replied: "War."