Two decades of state investment have turned Turkey into a major exporter of drones and other military equipment, and the NATO member is now seeking to capitalize on that momentum at a time when the West is rapidly rearming and security alliances are shifting.
Turkey, once heavily dependent on foreign arms manufacturers, now supplies nearly 40 countries, mainly in the Gulf, Africa, Asia and parts of Europe, with weapons that many buyers consider cheaper, more readily available and more adaptable than alternatives offered by competitors.
As European governments reexamine their security dependence after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and question the long-term reliability of American security guarantees, more and more NATO allies see Turkey not only as a military bulwark on the Alliance's southeastern flank but also as a potential industrial partner.
Ankara hopes that hosting U.S. President Donald Trump and other NATO leaders at a summit next month will help it expand arms sales and joint production in Western markets, particularly in the European Union. There, Turkish companies face structural obstacles, including defense initiatives reserved for EU members and political resistance linked to broader diplomatic disputes.
A Reuters analysis of trade data shows that exports from Turkey's defense industry - including the notorious armed drones used by Ukrainian forces - have more than tripled since 2021, reaching $10 billion last year, accounting for about 3,7 percent of the large emerging economy's total exports.
Exports to Europe and the US almost quadrupled in the same period, to $5,6 billion.
Such growth reflects the maturation of the domestic defense industry, which includes drone manufacturer Baykar, Turkish Aerospace Industries, and smaller companies like Arca Defense and Kale.
Analysts say that continued government support, flexible supply chains, and a willingness to adapt systems to customer needs have enabled these companies to quickly penetrate markets where Western suppliers face limited capacity or lengthy procurement procedures.
War as a threat and as an opportunity
Turkey is seeking to double its military equipment exports over the next two years, its Defense Industry Agency said, which could bring in significant revenues needed to reduce debt and finance further development.
Situated between two major conflicts - Ukraine to the north and Iran to the southeast - Turkey also has its own security interests, particularly due to deficiencies in air defense and the production of aircraft and tank engines, which could be mitigated by trade and technology agreements.
Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said that Turkey's defense industry has made a "big leap" by exporting advanced systems, especially unmanned aerial vehicles.
According to him, the war in Ukraine has shown that modern warfare depends not only on top-notch platforms but also on industrial depth and sustainability - areas in which Turkey has gained credibility.
Reputational risk
Turkey produces about 65 percent of all armed drones used worldwide and is a major exporter of ammunition. It also produces or plans to produce frigates, aircraft carriers, air defense systems and armored vehicles. Indonesia announced last year that it would buy 48 Turkish fighter jets that are still in the development phase.
But Turkey's ambitions also carry political and reputational risks. Last month, the country unveiled a prototype of a domestically built intercontinental ballistic missile at a defense fair in Istanbul, drawing criticism from some experts over the project's technical feasibility and the message it sends, after a promotional video showed a hypothetical launch that appeared to target North America.
Turkish officials say the defense sector will be one of the main topics of the NATO meeting in Ankara on July 7-8. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the planned defense industry forum would be the most comprehensive yet.
European obstacles
US pressure on NATO allies to shoulder more of the burden of their own defense, including plans to withdraw thousands of troops from Germany, creates both opportunities and uncertainty for Turkey, which has the second-largest military in the Alliance.
Defense Minister Yasser Guler in April called on European allies to abandon security arrangements that exclude NATO members outside the European Union, such as Turkey, warning that such a policy could "harm European security and resilience more than reducing the US military presence in Europe."
Turkey has been largely excluded from the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, while some European governments continue to keep Ankara at arm's length over regional disputes and concerns about the state of democracy, including sweeping measures against the main opposition party.
Despite this, Turkish companies have secured contracts to supply military equipment to Poland, Spain, Portugal and Romania.
The global race in military spending
Global military spending rose by 24 percent to almost $2,9 trillion in the five years to 2025, including a 75 percent increase in Europe, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
During the same period, the Turkish Defense Industry Agency doubled the number of funded research and development projects to more than 1.400.
Defense analyst Arda Mevlutoglu believes that there are conditions for deeper cooperation with Europe if political obstacles are successfully overcome.
"Europe needs solutions that can be implemented quickly... but political will at the highest level is needed to develop this cooperation in a healthy way," he said.
"Turkey is going through a process of repositioning and adjusting towards Europe and NATO."
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