In the upcoming parliamentary elections, the citizens of this South Caucasian country are not only choosing a new parliament, but also the strategic direction of the country: faster entry into the European Union or a return to the Russian sphere of influence.
According to a poll commissioned by the Washington-based non-governmental organization International Republican Institute (IRI), the Civil Contract party of the current pro-European Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, is in first place with 32 percent support.
The opposition is traditionally pro-Russian and divided into three main political forces that lag significantly behind the ruling party.
About seven percent of voters support the "Strong Armenia" bloc, led by Russian billionaire of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan. He is currently under house arrest in Yerevan on charges of inciting a violent takeover of power.
The "Armenia" political alliance, led by former President Robert Kocharyan, close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, expects around four percent of the vote.
The Prosperous Armenia party, founded by businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, can count on around two percent support.
Other parties, including new protest movements, have support of only one to two percent.
Surveys – be careful
Experts warn that these figures should be interpreted with caution due to the record-low response rate: only 16 percent of respondents agreed to take part in the survey. This is 19 percent less than on the eve of the 2021 snap elections. At the same time, 92 percent of participants said they intended to vote, compared to 72 percent in 2021.
Almost every other respondent refused to reveal their favorite or stated that they had not yet made a final decision about who they would vote for.
New political direction: Brussels or Moscow?
One of the main topics of the election campaign was foreign policy. The ruling party is moving the country closer to the European Union and away from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – a military alliance controlled by Moscow.
In May 2025, the Armenian parliament adopted a law to launch the EU accession process.
During the election campaign, current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan promised to introduce a visa-free regime with the European Union within the next two years.
In early May, Pashinyan hosted a summit of the European Political Community in Yerevan and said that Armenia "is not an ally of Russia" in the war against Ukraine.
This statement provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow. Russia threatened to impose tariffs and legal barriers on Armenian workers who want to work in Russia, and suggested that a referendum should be held in which citizens would choose between two options: the EU or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Russia is also using trade measures as a means of pressure, including restrictions on imports of Armenian agricultural products such as vegetables, fruits, and wine, as well as the possibility of suspending supplies of gas and oil products at preferential prices.
President Vladimir Putin further warned that adopting European standards would lead to a breakdown in economic cooperation, and compared the situation in Armenia to the 2014 crisis in Ukraine.
Russian influence and relations with the US
Moscow's election interference is causing heated debate in Armenia. Tensions rose after the Russian independent investigative media outlet Insider published an article about an alleged Russian spy network in Armenia.
According to the media outlet, Russian billionaire and leader of the "Strong Armenia" party, Samvel Karapetyan, listed the Information Center of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia as his employer in an application for a passport issued to him in 1999.
Armenian security forces have repeatedly initiated criminal proceedings against representatives of the pro-Russian opposition. A major political scandal erupted after the arrest of Andranik Tevanyan, the second candidate on the list of the Prosperous Armenia party. The politician, known for his pro-Russian views, faces charges of high treason and espionage.
The opposition called these cases, as well as the Insider article, "political persecution."
In addition to rapprochement with the European Union, the Pashinyan government is strengthening relations with the United States. Charters on a comprehensive strategic partnership and a memorandum on rare earth elements were recently signed.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the mediation of the United States, have paved the way for an ambitious logistics project that would connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan through southern Armenia. The agreement represents a significant step towards ending the blockade of Armenia.
Relations with Russia and the opposition
The ruling party describes future relations with Russia as a "transformation" rather than an alliance, citing foreign policy diversification as the reason.
The crisis in relations began in the fall of 2022, when the OSCE and Russia failed to provide military assistance to Yerevan during border conflicts with Azerbaijan.
The main opposition forces, on the other hand, act as ideological opponents of the current government. They advocate the renewal of the strategic alliance with Moscow, considering it a key guarantor of security in the peace process with Azerbaijan.
Nikol Pashinyan has made the idea of a “true Armenia” a central part of his campaign, rejecting revisionist calls for the restoration of “historical borders” that include Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan regained control of the breakaway region after a war in 2023, ending a conflict that had lasted more than three decades.
The opposition has strongly criticized this approach. Despite the tensions, the survey shows that 71 percent of citizens believe that the elections will be free and fair, while 61 percent believe that the country is moving in the right direction. The main problem, according to 17 percent of respondents, is border security.
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