Can the EU cope with a dangerous world?

Vast mountains of butter, lakes of wine and the European Union’s alleged ban on crooked bananas formed the mythological backdrop to Britain’s 2016 Brexit referendum fiasco. Yet while many of the Leave campaign’s claims were exaggerated, inaccurate or downright untrue, the EU’s capacity for self-mockery has not diminished a decade later. Take the unusual case of the European commissioners’ whining that their official electric vehicles cannot make the 280-mile journey between Brussels and Strasbourg without stopping to recharge.

This important issue, first reported by Politico, raises fundamental questions. Do these highly paid bureaucrats really need chauffeured cars? They could probably take the train, fly or cycle. The use of electric vehicles is mandatory for official road travel. The vehicles are provided in line with the EU’s Green Deal emissions reduction policy, which commissioners would be expected to support, not grumble about. So why is Commission President Ursula von der Leyen allowed to drive a petrol engine? And the biggest question of all is why do they make those tiresome journeys between Brussels and Strasbourg in the first place?

The answer is that the European Parliament does not deign to function like any ordinary parliament. It sits in both cities, as stipulated by the treaty. Twelve times a year, commissioners, officials and hundreds of MEPs travel between the two cities, costing taxpayers tens of millions of euros. The train that was supposed to take MEPs to Strasbourg in 2023 was accidentally diverted to Disneyland, which some detractors found quite fitting. Yet, despite all the problems and costs, France would never allow Strasbourg to be bypassed. National prestige is at stake.

Such talk of a “train for the privileged” to the EU has appalled British Brexiteers, but it does not seem to bother today’s voters on Europe’s northernmost fringes, where there is an unexpectedly renewed interest, even enthusiasm, for the EU. Iceland will hold a national referendum in August on whether to continue accession talks. In March, it signed a security and defense partnership with Brussels. In Norway, which has long resisted EU membership, the main conservative opposition party now wants the country to join the union. And the Faroe Islands are reportedly reconsidering whether to seek independence from EU member Denmark.

Two common factors are melting cold northern hearts. One is Donald Trump’s campaign of pressure on Greenland, a sovereign Danish territory that he has threatened to annex “whether they like it or not.” The US president, who also has claims to Canada, Cuba and Panama, and recently kidnapped the president of Venezuela, argues that control of resource-rich Greenland is essential to American security. This policy of seizure reflects Trump’s belief in US imperial dominance over the Western Hemisphere – what the Russians, in their sphere, once called the “near abroad.”

Trump’s aggressive icebreaker diplomacy has set off alarms across the far north. After unusually harsh criticism from EU and NATO leaders, Trump, preoccupied with his Iran fiasco, has for now toned down his tone – but he hasn’t given up. After personally inviting Jeff Landry, Trump’s “special envoy” (who, bizarrely, is also the Republican governor of Louisiana) to the capital Nuuk this month, Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has made it clear that Greenland is “not for sale.” It’s no surprise that the US threats have put Greenlanders’ dreams of independence on hold, pushing them closer to Denmark and the EU.

Pointing to another common factor influencing sentiment in the region, Icelandic Foreign Minister Torgjerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir recently expressed concern that covert and malicious Russian interference in the upcoming EU referendum in Reykjavik could aid the anti-accession campaign and produce an Icelandic “Brexit moment.” She warned that disinformation and rhetoric taken straight “from the Nigel Farage and Reform UK playbook” could potentially distort the outcome of the referendum.

The hope of the citizens of Iceland, Greenland and other friends to the north that the EU can help them survive and thrive in a more dangerous world is, we hope, not misplaced. Predators like Putin and Trump, as well as allied reactionary forces like Reform UK, will not wait for Europe if it does not seize this moment. Those grumbling Brussels commissioners should get on their bikes.

Viewed more broadly, the increasingly intense and destabilizing competition between Russia, the US and China in the strategically important and increasingly accessible Arctic region is focusing local populations’ attention on the benefits of belonging to large, multinational groups like the EU. Iceland, like Greenland, has no armed forces of its own and relies on NATO for its defense – which in practice means primarily the US. But in the Trump era, that security umbrella is full of holes, as larger European countries, including Britain, are discovering to their own detriment.

EU membership, or more precisely, renewal of membership, has become the awkward central issue in a crucial by-election in the British constituency of Makerfield on June 18, which coincidentally coincides with the anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo. Keir Starmer wants to restore the UK’s relationship with the EU. His likely leadership rivals, Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate in Makerfield, and Wes Streeting, both want to return to the EU fold sooner rather than later. Reform UK wants to turn the vote into a showdown over Europe and accusations that the government has betrayed the voters. Evelyn Waugh might describe it as a return to Brexit – only without the humour this time.

All this interest in accession, re-accession, EU rapprochement or rejection of the Union raises a broader question: is Brussels up to the geopolitical moment? The dual threats from the East and the West provide a unique incentive to revitalize and reform its venerable, rule-bound and ossified institutions.

Russia's increased efforts, failing in Ukraine, to intimidate and destabilize European states through cyberattacks, sabotage, assassinations, disinformation and quasi-military provocations - such as the recent electronic jamming attack on an RAF plane carrying British Defense Secretary John Healy - were highlighted this week by GCHQ's head of surveillance, Anne Kist-Butler.

"Russia is increasing its hybrid activities against the United Kingdom and Europe every day," she said.

The EU has responded to Trump’s policies in an uncoordinated and overly conciliatory manner, although some national leaders, such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz, have taken a tougher line on Iran. Last year’s US-EU trade deal was a humiliation. When it comes to supporting Ukraine, Europe has largely managed to maintain unity in the face of Vladimir Putin’s aggression and Trump’s outrageous backsliding, although in practical terms it has usually done too little too late. As for Ukraine’s membership bid and enlargement policy more generally, the EU’s recent performance has been weak. Candidate countries are queuing up across the Balkans and Eastern Europe. Turkey has been waiting since 1987.

Despite the efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron, the EU is still years away from creating a credible, autonomous “European army,” separate from the US-dominated NATO, and continues to fall short when it comes to joint arms production and procurement.

Although von der Leyen is adept at juggling many things at once, she inevitably goes in circles. Opportunities to strengthen the EU by finally mending relations with post-Orbán Hungary and with a renegade Britain could be missed, hampered by perpetual budget disputes among member states, national rivalries, a lack of political imagination and chronic sluggishness in Brussels.

The hope of the citizens of Iceland, Greenland and other friends to the north that the EU can help them survive and thrive in a more dangerous world is, we hope, not misplaced. Predators like Putin and Trump, as well as allied reactionary forces like Reform UK, will not wait for Europe if it does not seize this moment. Those grumbling Brussels commissioners should get on their bikes.

The author is a foreign policy commentator for The Guardian.

Translation: A. Š.