Armenia moves even closer to EU after elections, Moscow dissatisfied with outcome

Armenia's ruling pro-European party has won parliamentary elections, confirming the country's move towards Europe and away from traditional ally Russia, writes The Guardian.

Final results in the small South Caucasus state showed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party won a narrow majority, while the Strong Armenia alliance, led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, won about 25 percent of the seats in parliament.

The result, which will be welcomed with joy in Brussels but met with disapproval in Moscow, strengthens Pashinyan's position as he seeks to achieve his key and politically sensitive goal: a peace agreement with long-time enemy Azerbaijan and normalization of relations with Turkey.

"The people of Armenia voted for peace, regional prosperity and regional cooperation, and I hope that this will be met with a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan," Pashinyan said at his campaign headquarters as the first results were announced.

Pashinyan added that Armenia will continue to deepen ties with the West, while maintaining its membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.

A former journalist who came to power during the 2018 "Velvet Revolution" promising to dismantle the oligarchic system, Pashinyan has based his politics on the idea of ​​peace, arguing that ending decades of conflict with neighbors would open up economic opportunities, improve security, and reduce dependence on Russia.

The prime minister, known for his populist and sometimes polarizing rhetoric, has advocated for closer ties with Europe, suggesting that Armenia's future lies in deeper integration with the West and expressing hope that the country could one day become a member of the European Union.

European leaders were quick to congratulate Pashinyan. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on the X network that the victory was proof of a democratic Armenia moving ever closer to Europe.

"Armenia can count on us," she added.

Pashinyan has also received support from Donald Trump, who described him as a great friend and leader. The United States has been increasingly involved in brokering a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sunday's election was the first national one after Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in 2023, marking a heavy defeat and the end of more than three decades of Armenian control over the disputed region.

The opposition used the defeat as evidence of Pashinyan's failures, accusing him of handing over historical Armenian territories to enemies.

Pashinyan, however, tried to turn this into a political advantage, arguing that Armenia's policy towards Karabakh had kept the country in constant conflict and dependence on Russia, and that the painful defeat was a necessary step towards a more secure and prosperous future.

However, challenges remain, as Pashinyan failed to secure the two-thirds majority needed for a referendum on constitutional amendments, including the removal of language that Azerbaijan interprets as territorial claims to Nagorno-Karabakh – a key condition for a final peace agreement.

Lilit Mkrtchyan, a shopkeeper from Yerevan, told The Guardian that Pashinyan's victory would bring peace and stability to Armenia.

"Armenians are tired of war. We want to be an open, developing and progressing European country, where I don't have to worry about my son being called up to war," she stressed.

Pashinyan's policies have brought him into direct conflict with Moscow, which has had a strong influence on Armenian politics and economy for decades.

Many Armenians became disillusioned with Russia after Moscow failed to intervene during the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.

This led Pashinyan to suspend Armenia's participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, marking the deepest break in relations with Moscow since independence.

Ahead of the elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Armenia, although it has not formally applied for EU membership, is following the same path as Ukraine.

Armenian authorities and analysts have accused Russia of attempting to influence the elections through disinformation campaigns and support for pro-Russian candidates, as well as organizing the return of voters from Russia to vote against Pashinyan.

In recent weeks, Moscow has stepped up the pressure by imposing trade restrictions on products such as flowers, fish, fruit and Armenian cognac.

Aware of economic dependence on Russia and reliance on cheap Russian gas, Pashinyan announced after the election that he would pursue a balanced foreign policy, emphasizing that the choice between Russia and the West is not an issue.

After the economy grew under the influence of the influx of Russian capital after the invasion of Ukraine, Pashinyan invested further in the country's interior regions, where he enjoys the greatest support.

However, analysts also point to his increasingly personalized style of governance, as well as accusations of authoritarian tendencies in a country that remains a rare democratic exception in a region dominated by strongmen.

Ahead of the election, Armenian authorities arrested opposition politicians, including members of Karapetyan's alliance, on charges including vote buying, financial crimes, and calls for the overthrow of the government.

Karapetyan was arrested in June and charged with calling for a takeover of power, for which he campaigned from house arrest.

After the election, Pashinyan announced that his government's priority would be "completely dismantling the criminal-oligarchic system," and said that leading opposition figures could be prosecuted.

During the campaign, Pashinyan acted unpredictably at times, engaging in sharp public confrontations with refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, accusing them of fleeing instead of staying and fighting.

The European Union, on the other hand, has largely ignored criticism of Pashinyan, clearly supporting Armenia's turn toward the West. Brussels this week announced an initial aid package of 50 million euros to help Armenia ease Russian economic pressure.

"Pashinyan is no longer the man he was when he came to power," said Karen Grigoryan, a doctor who voted for Karapetyan on Sunday.

Referring to the mass killings of Armenians during the Ottoman period, which Yerevan and many Western countries recognize as genocide, he added: "We cannot simply be friends with Turkey and pretend that the past is being erased."

Analysts say many voters supported Pashinyan largely because the opposition remains widely discredited and closely linked to Russia.

"People are choosing the lesser evil. The alternatives to Pashinyan are much worse," said Armenian analyst Tatul Hakobyan.