Merc's expansion plan raises new questions

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with his proposal for the enlargement of the European Union, is giving new impetus to the debate, but the planned steps for the integration of Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans raise fundamental questions regarding the implementation and equal treatment of candidate countries, analysts Marina Vulović and Valeska Eš assessed.

An analysis published on the website of the German Institute for International and Security Politics (SWP) states that Merz's proposal to EU leaders is associate membership for Ukraine and the gradual integration of the Western Balkan countries, and potentially Moldova, with the aim of convincingly strengthening the perspective of full membership and making the enlargement process more dynamic.

Specifically, the proposal entails the integration of Ukraine as an associate member without voting rights in the Council, the Commission, the European Parliament and the European Court of Justice, the gradual opening of individual programmes, as well as the possibility of applying Article 42(7) of the EU Treaty as a security guarantee.

For the Western Balkan countries, preferential access to the single market, observer status in European institutions, and joint meetings with the Commission or the European Parliament are proposed.

The membership perspective of Moldova is also emphasized, although Merz's letter does not specify whether the proposals for the Western Balkans also apply to Moldova.

The Chancellor is thus making his own contribution to the enlargement debate, but also raising numerous questions, the authors assess, stating that the proposal remains vague in key areas.

For example, the practical difference, and therefore the purpose, of the distinction between associate membership for Ukraine and observer status for the Western Balkan states is not clearly defined. It also remains unclear where the limits of such observer status would lie – given that virtually all policy areas are relevant to future members.

Representatives of the Western Balkans already occasionally participate in Council meetings. In addition, EU-Western Balkans summits, bilateral intergovernmental conferences, Growth Agenda summits and Berlin Process meetings are held regularly. It remains unclear what added value the new formats would bring. Furthermore, it is questionable whether associate membership in this form would be possible without amending the EU treaties.

The situation is similar when it comes to preferential access to the single market: in this area too, the Western Balkan countries already enjoy certain privileges under the Stabilisation and Association Agreement. An enlargement along the lines of the free trade agreements with Ukraine and Moldova would require ratification processes in all EU Member States. Full membership of the single market would also face significant obstacles, including the application of EU standards in the region, and does not currently appear to be a realistic prospect.

The commitment to gradual integration into the EU based on reforms makes sense, but remains weak without concrete operational steps. Gradual integration must not be just another observer status, but must have an operational basis and must visibly go beyond the measures taken so far under the Growth Agenda. It would be necessary to examine on what legal basis EU programmes, agencies or processes could be gradually opened up to candidate countries. Early integration, for example in the Digital Services Act, the Foreign Direct Investment Screening Mechanism or the European Public Prosecutor's Office, could bring tangible benefits for both sides, the text points out.

In the author's opinion, the current proposal would lead to the development of different integration paths within the same enlargement process: Ukraine would be more deeply integrated through associate membership than the Western Balkan countries through observer status, while the envisaged role of Moldova remains unclear.

Within the EU, views on differentiation differ. Some member states advocate equal offers to all candidate countries. Although Russian aggression requires generous financial support for Ukraine and European security guarantees, the conditions for full EU membership apply equally to all candidates. Reforms of the accession process should therefore be implemented consistently to avoid new political tensions and additional doubts about the credibility of the enlargement process, especially in the Western Balkans.

The key question remains whether there is political will among the 27 EU member states to simultaneously advance enlargement, substantially develop the accession process and implement internal reforms. Symbolic offers, in any case, do not respond to either Ukraine's fight against Russian invasion or the frustration over uncertain accession prospects in the Western Balkans, concluded visiting researchers in the European Union and Europe Research Group Marina Vulović and Valeska Eš.