Russia "is not looking for conflict," said US General Alexus Grinkevich, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, as European allies increasingly warn of possible security gaps that could arise from Washington's plans to withdraw key military capabilities.
At the same time, the head of the German army warns that NATO must be ready for a possible Russian attack by 2029, or even earlier.
Asked about the possibility of a Russian attack on the Baltic states, Grinkevich said his role was to ensure that NATO's deterrence remained credible and that Moscow understood that it could not succeed militarily against the Alliance, the Financial Times reported.
"I follow the intelligence very closely," Grinkevich said on a panel during the ILA International Air Show in Berlin. "Russia is not looking for conflict... They understand the notion of a 'defense alliance' and they understand that we have a number of asymmetric advantages."
His comments come as the US plans to reduce the military capabilities it allocates to the NATO Force Model, the Alliance's joint pool of forces and equipment that can be deployed within 10, 30 and 180 days in response to a crisis.
That assessment contrasts with growing concerns in the Baltic states that a reduced US military presence could weaken NATO's deterrence and change Moscow's calculus.
Grinkevich, who also heads the US European Command, said his "job" is to ensure that "Russia understands that if they try something in the Baltic states, it won't work. And because they know it won't work, they won't take the risk of doing something like that."
He added: "When people ask me if you're ready to fight tonight? Absolutely."
European military officials warn that Russia could rebuild enough military power in the next few years to pose a direct conventional threat to NATO territory, despite losses in Ukraine.
The US assets that could be withdrawn include one US aircraft carrier strike group and all submarines capable of launching cruise missiles, several Poseidon patrol aircraft, aerial refueling aircraft, as well as F-16 and F-15E fighters, the German newspaper Die Welt reported.
The cuts are part of President Donald Trump's broader push to shift US resources to Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Washington has already announced plans to withdraw 5.000 troops from Germany and cancel the deployment of a long-range firepower battalion that was due to arrive there later this year.
"This is a series of air and naval capabilities that we, the United States, need in case of problems in the Pacific," Grinkevich said, confirming the cuts for the first time.
As NATO commander, he said he was now making contingency plans "about what we might have, under certain conditions, or what we might not have."
"In the short term, we need to focus on what we can acquire quickly, deploy quickly, expand quickly, and sustain over time. That goes for long-range fire as well."
Such an assessment, however, does not alleviate concerns among European allies. The head of the German army, Lieutenant General Christian Freuding, said that Germany must be prepared for a possible Russian attack by 2029, or even earlier.
"We have to be ready... We have to be ready to fight," Freuding told Politico, also at the fair in Berlin.
He said there was a broad consensus among allies that Russia could attack NATO territory before the end of the decade.
"2029 is not a German timeframe. It is an intelligence assessment agreed upon within NATO," Freuding said. "All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia could have the capability to invade a NATO partner country by 2029."
However, he warned that Russia could act before then, despite the war in Ukraine entering its fifth year and Kiev claiming that Moscow has suffered more than 1,3 million casualties, as well as huge losses in equipment.
European military officials warn that Russia could rebuild enough military power in the next few years to pose a direct conventional threat to NATO territory, despite losses in Ukraine. For military planners, 2029 has become shorthand for the moment by which Europe must close urgent gaps in readiness, production and military capabilities, according to Politico.
The portal points out that the German general's statements highlight concerns that Moscow could test the Alliance while Europe is still rushing to rearm.
That urgency is also shaping the debate in Germany about arms procurement and the capabilities of the defense industry. Freuding said Berlin has already done "a lot" to speed up procurement and that the industry has increased its production capacity.
However, he warned that Germany cannot rely solely on long-term weapons programs, the development and introduction of which could take years.
"Speed is of the essence now," said Freuding.
He added that for some systems still under development, Germany needs "transitional solutions" to bridge the gap between what the military has now and what it needs for combat readiness.
"As the German military, we must improve our capabilities every day to 'fight tonight,'" he said, pointing to the Bundeswehr's shift towards a high-readiness force designed to deter potential Russian aggression.
Vladimir Putin last week dismissed fears in Europe that Russia might attack NATO countries as "nonsense".
"It's a deliberate provocation to create a threat that doesn't really exist and to force the populations of those countries to spend more money on defense," he said. "It's just absurd. It would be funny if it weren't so sad."
Grinkevich, who has been participating in US-led talks to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, said Ukrainian forces were "certainly holding up well" on the battlefield.
"The Ukrainians are doing pretty well," he said. "When the Russians advance, they barely advance, and at an incredibly high casualty rate for Russia. The front lines are relatively stable."
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