Four new prime ministers will join European Union leaders in Brussels today, changing the political calculus within the bloc's most powerful decision-making body.
Since the last European Council meeting, held eight weeks ago, changes at the head of four member states - or about 15 percent of the EU's 27 heads of government - have introduced new uncertainty about how leaders will align on the Union's biggest disputes.
The changes come just as governments prepare for battles over the bloc's next two trillion euro budget, energy policy and foreign policy issues.
Another question looms over the summit: who will succeed Viktor Orban's long-held role?
The former Hungarian prime minister has frustrated colleagues for years by blocking, delaying and negotiating EU decisions. Now that Orban is no longer in office, diplomats are looking for signs of where resistance might emerge in the next chapter of the Council.
“The biggest change about the foursome will be who won’t be there,” one European diplomat told Politico, referring to Orban. Like other interviewees in this article, he insisted on remaining anonymous so he could speak candidly.
Pro-European conservative: Hungarian Peter Magyar
Forty days after taking office on May 9, after a landslide victory that upended Hungary's political order, Péter Magyar has already transformed Budapest's relationship with Brussels. His government has unblocked billions of euros in EU funds that had been frozen for years under his predecessor, Viktor Orbán.
By stepping aside on Ukraine and allowing Kiev to launch the first phase of EU accession talks this week, the Hungarian has further cemented his reputation as a constructive, pro-European leader. As a former Hungarian diplomat in Brussels and a member of the European Parliament, he is well-versed in the institutions and is expected to avoid the confrontational style that has characterized Orbán’s relations with the bloc. A top European diplomat described him as a “skillful” political player.
The bigger question is where the Hungarian, a center-right conservative whose Tisa party is part of the European People's Party, will keep elements of Orban's agenda. On energy, he has promised to free Hungary from dependence on Russian imports - but not until 2035, well after the EU's goal of doing so by 2027.
On migration, the Hungarian has signaled a similar continuity. He plans to keep the border fence that Orban erected in 2015 and opposes the bloc’s quotas for redistributing migrants, broadly aligning himself with leaders like Danish Prime Minister Metta Frederiksen and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. It is no coincidence that his first official trip as prime minister was to Warsaw. He has also called for the revival – and expansion – of the Visegrad Four, a group of Central European countries.
Tensions between Budapest and Brussels could resurface. But when the Hungarian walks down the red, flag-draped carpet of the Europa building today, he will arrive energized by a fresh electoral mandate and newly renewed ties with the EU - and welcomed as a more predictable partner, a relief in Brussels after his predecessor, who took undisguised delight in causing chaos.
Skeptic about Ukraine: Bulgarian Rumen Radev
The former Bulgarian president ended years of internal political deadlock when he resigned in January, founded his own party and won a landslide victory in the subsequent elections. Although he has attended European Council meetings before due to a constitutional specificity that technically prevented prime ministers from representing Sofia in Brussels, this will be his first summit as head of government.
His arrival could complicate efforts to maintain a united EU front towards Ukraine.
Radev argued last year that Kiev was “doomed to fail” in a war against Russia and opposed increasing EU military aid or “sending more weapons” to Ukraine. He also blamed European leaders for supporting Ukraine’s counteroffensive, saying it had led to “hundreds of thousands” of casualties.
He was also remembered for his clash with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a televised meeting in 2023, when the Ukrainian leader publicly criticized him for taking positions that critics described as pro-Kremlin. The episode put Radev in a camp that also includes Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, another frequent critic of Western support for Ukraine who has cultivated warmer ties with Moscow.
Several insiders in Brussels are already wary. Bulgaria could become an obstacle in negotiations on future sanctions against Russia, according to two and three European diplomats. The EU hopes to approve a 21st package of sanctions in the coming months, but another diplomat said Sofia is already “taking a tough stance,” although the source of its remarks remains unclear.
Still, a third diplomat questioned whether Radev would be willing - or able - to play the obstructive role that Orban has long had in the Council.
Defender of Israel: Slovenian Janez Janša
Janez Janša, a well-known face in Brussels, is returning to the European Council for a fourth term as Slovenian Prime Minister. His return brings another right-wing populist to the table - a self-proclaimed Trump admirer who has a combative attitude towards the media. Sound familiar?
Janša does have some Orban-like tendencies. But there is one big difference: the Slovenian leader is among Ukraine's staunchest supporters, supporting both military aid and Kiev's bid for EU membership. He also traveled to Ukraine in the early weeks of the full-scale Russian invasion, in a show of solidarity.
He could pose a bigger problem on the issue of Israel.
Several EU countries want to impose sanctions on Israel's hardline National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over his treatment of Europeans detained on a Gaza aid flotilla, according to draft conclusions from the June 12 summit, seen by Politiko. However, Janša is expected to oppose such measures, along with countries including Germany and the Czech Republic.
In recent weeks, he has gone further than many European defenders of Israel: he lifted Slovenia's embargo on arms exports to Israel and the entry ban on Ben-Gvir and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel then announced plans to open an embassy in Ljubljana, which Janša hailed as "a new era in Slovenian-Israeli relations."
However, that opposition may not be decisive. If Germany softens its stance on sanctions, other countries that oppose them - including Slovenia - may be more willing to side with the majority, according to the top European diplomat.
Tough on Russia: Latvian Andris Kulbergs
Latvia's parliament voted last month to appoint Andris Kulbergs, a car-loving businessman turned politician, as the new prime minister, after a political crisis sparked by a series of accidental incursions by Ukrainian drones into Latvian airspace led to the resignation of former Prime Minister Evika Silinja.
Kulbergs first entered parliament in 2022, does not belong to any party and has never served as a minister, but has the support of a broad coalition. With Latvia's general elections just four months away, his government's priority is to strengthen the country's anti-drone defenses to better respond to future airspace violations.
It comes as the bloc's leaders are due to discuss today and tomorrow how to secure the bloc's airspace on its eastern flank, draft summit conclusions said, and express "full solidarity" with member states exposed to such threats.
The Latvian prime minister has pledged to continue Riga's strong support for Ukraine, signing a drone deal with Kiev in his first days in office. Latvia is among the EU's top defense spenders, as well as other hard-line states toward Russia - Poland, Lithuania and Estonia.
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