Russian President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls for peace talks with Kiev, and recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports have further strengthened his decision to continue the war for now, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters.
Two sources, speaking anonymously, said it was more likely that Putin would decide to intensify the conflict, which has now entered its fifth year.
One of them, who meets regularly with the Russian president, said there was a "high probability" of escalation in the coming months.
US President Donald Trump said earlier that Putin wants the war to end and that a deal is "closer than people think."
Trump spoke separately by phone with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week, and met with Zelensky during the NATO summit in Ankara yesterday, where the Ukrainian leader said they discussed "ideas for moving closer to peace."
The White House did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.
One person familiar with Putin's views said he was unwilling to compromise to achieve a key goal - capturing the remaining part of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, where Russian advances have slowed this year. The same source said Putin recently rebuked a group of advisers who had suggested a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front line. Another source said Putin believed Russia would soon take Donbas.
In June, the Russian president publicly rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's call for a meeting and ceasefire.
"Russia is ready for a peaceful solution, but has sufficient capacity to act independently and continue the special military operation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a request for comment for this article.
In response to a request for comment from Zelensky's office, a senior Ukrainian official said that intelligence reports from Kiev in recent months showed that Putin was preparing for further steps in war, not peace, including new operations in Ukraine or a possible attack on another European country.
Some Western military analysts believe that Russia would need a mandatory mobilization of combat-ready men to achieve its goal of capturing Donbass. Mobilization is a politically unpopular move that Putin has been reluctant to make since the early stages of the war.
Russian military experts are increasingly speaking publicly about the possibility of escalation, including potential attacks on European targets, such as NATO bases in the Baltic countries.
Such a move would risk a direct conflict between Russia and the US-led alliance, testing NATO's commitment that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
According to Jack Watling of the Royal Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), a London-based defence and security think tank, Russia could try to cause divisions within NATO with limited attacks, similar to the recent Russian drone attack on Romania.
"The Russians would not aim for war with NATO. But it could be used to divide NATO over how to respond," said Watling.
He added that increased tensions with NATO could serve as a political justification for Putin in Russia to introduce military conscription.
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