Melnichenko warns of three dark scenarios for Russia

Andrei Melnichenko, one of Russia's richest businessmen and a man described by The Economist as the world's fertilizer king and Russia's largest industrialist, has spoken out unusually openly about Russia's future and warned the West that it should not wish for Russia to slide into chaos, harsh self-isolation, or bitter and dangerous dependence.

In interviews that lasted more than 60 hours with journalists from The Economist, Melnichenko does not say that Vladimir Putin must be removed from power, but according to the British weekly, the change he desires would mean the end of one-man rule.

Melnichenko is not an opposition figure, nor a public critic of Putin and the invasion of Ukraine. On the contrary, he is a man who has long operated by the Kremlin's rules: make money but stay out of politics.

After running his companies outside of Russia for years, Melnichenko returned to the country in 2023, when the space for global business narrowed.

Melnichenko speaks as a pragmatic industrialist who wants his businesses to survive and thrive, but who now assesses that the Russian model is entering a dangerous phase. The newspaper notes that this is the first time an oligarch based in Russia has spoken at such length about the state of the country and the possible consequences of war.

Melnichenko's words go far beyond the war and refer to the bleak outlook for Russia and its neighbors.

The Economist writes that Melnichenko's warning is particularly significant as the consequences of the war are increasingly being felt within Russia itself. Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure have led to fuel lines and tensions at gas stations, Crimea is increasingly exposed to Ukrainian drones, forced mobilization is causing discontent, and complaints from influencers about the war are spreading on social media.

This reality belies Putin's repeated promises that the special military operation is going according to plan and that a breakthrough is within reach. Although the Russian economy is not on the verge of collapse, nor is an imminent uprising expected, more and more Russians feel that the country has reached a dead end.

Putin could easily try to reassert his authority by escalating the war and repressing the population at home. Some Western intelligence agencies have recently reported that Russia is expanding its confrontation with NATO. In his darkest scenario, Melnichenko fears the use of tactical nuclear weapons in an attempt to intimidate Ukraine's European allies - although Western analysts still consider such a possibility unlikely.

At the heart of Melnichenko's warning are three long-term scenarios for Russia, each of which he considers dangerous for both Russia and the world.

The first scenario is a disintegration of Russia into chaos and anarchy, in which local powerful people and warlords would fight for control of resources, territories, and even nuclear weapons. Such a development, the text states, was one of the reasons why the Joe Biden administration sought to avoid a complete humiliation of Russia in Ukraine.

The second scenario is that Russia falls under the influence of foreign powers. In one variant, it could become dependent on China, which would use it as a source of raw materials and a buffer zone against the United States. In the other, after a long, exhausting war, Russia could end up as an impoverished periphery of Europe. Melnichenko believes that both outcomes would produce resentment, frustration, and dangerous nationalism that could later explode into a new conflict.

The third scenario is Russia closing in on itself, following the example of North Korea. It would be an isolated fortress under siege, without growth, capital and normal connections with the world. According to The Economist, such an option is allegedly being considered within the Kremlin. But such a Russia, like North Korea, would live in a state of permanent war with the rest of the world.

Melnichenko does not offer a clear plan for how to avoid such outcomes. He calls on the West and Russia to find a way to live in peace and demands that Russia be granted some kind of “sovereignty,” or protection from outside interference, reminiscent of China’s demand for non-interference in internal affairs. When he talks about reforms in Russia itself, he remains vague. The country must be predictable to the outside world and must win over its citizens without resorting to coercion. Implicitly, he wants Putin to abandon one-man rule and transfer some of his authority to other centers of power. However, Melnichenko is not talking about democracy, the Economist points out.

Even that would be met with resistance from the siloviki, who have been the main figures in the system since Putin expelled the original post-Soviet oligarchs from politics more than two decades ago, the British weekly estimates, adding that if Russia becomes a more normal country, they will be the losers. However, perhaps technocrats and magnates, concerned about the fate of their country, will side with Melnichenko. Putin may refuse to give in. But he is in a bind: the continuation of the exhausting war, escalation and reform - all would have their price.

The Economist reminds us that reforms have a historical precedent in Russia. After the defeat by Japan in 1905, industrialists and technocrats accused Tsar Nicholas II of having pushed the country backward from Europe through autocratic rule. Under pressure from the uprising, the Tsar accepted the October Manifesto, which promised civil liberties and a legislative assembly. The reforms were later suppressed, and ten years later the Tsar was overthrown in a revolution.

Meeting with Putin after midnight in the Kremlin

During almost 60 hours of conversations with "The Economist" journalists conducted over the past three months, Andrei Melnichenko spoke for only five minutes about his meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, which took place after midnight on May 28, 2025. Putin received him in an almost empty Kremlin building, and the conversation lasted more than an hour, significantly longer than Melnichenko expected.

Melnichenko said he immediately noticed a red folder in front of Putin and assumed it was a dossier prepared on him by the security services. Although he is one of the richest men in Russia and the owner of a vast industrial empire in the fields of fertilizers, mining, energy and logistics, this was the first time he had personally requested a meeting with Putin.

When he started talking about his public role and climate policy, Putin, he felt, began to lose interest. Melnichenko sensed that the president actually wanted to know why he had come and what he was looking for. Putin asked him if anyone was bothering him. Melnichenko replied that people usually come to him for two reasons: either because they are afraid of something, or because they are looking for something. He said that when it comes to fear, of course he is afraid, “one hundred percent, like everyone else,” but that he is not afraid of anything specific, unless there is something in Putin’s file that he should know about. This openness, it is said, caught Putin’s attention.

Melnichenko, who was placed under sanctions in the early days of the war, told Putin that he was forced to transfer ownership of EuroChem, then the second largest fertilizer company in the world, to his wife.

When Putin asked him who his wife was, Melnichenko replied that she was Serbian. “Well, Serbs are decent, honest people,” Putin said. “They won’t steal it.”

The main reason for the visit was Melnichenko’s attempt to become more involved in public life and, as he said, work for the good of his country. He told Putin that the mistake of the Russian elite was to separate their own destiny from the destiny of Russia. The belief that the West would guarantee them property rights almost cost them a fortune. Melnichenko said that a person cannot have one country for making money and another for security, family and real life, and thanked Putin for helping him understand this.

Putin, Melnichenko said, was pleased because he had been warning Russian oligarchs for years that they were never truly welcome in the West. Now one of the most prominent among them had admitted to him that he was right.