Macron's defense revolution put to the test

Emmanuel Macron left his last NATO summit without much fanfare, which was fitting for a president whose defense legacy is threatened by fiscal constraints and the possibility of being succeeded by the far right.

The French president, who arrived late, left early and barely spoke to reporters, was often quite reserved at alliance summits. Yet in nearly a decade in power, he has solidified France's position as one of NATO's leading powers, deploying French forces on the border with Russia and advocating for less dependence on the United States and greater European independence.

That is now the obvious direction to go. “The summit clearly showed that Europeans are investing more and more and acting more to defend themselves. For my part, I have been advocating for this for nine years,” Macron told reporters at the end of the summit.

The French president's defense legacy, defined by a pivot to Europe, has been marked by increased defense spending and the very early stages of involving European countries in France's nuclear deterrent. But as his term draws to a close, that legacy is being overshadowed by two forces: budget constraints and the far right.

While centrist candidates seeking to succeed Macron are likely to continue on his path, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is leading in the polls, has made it clear that France will significantly reduce its role in NATO and the EU if she wins.

“The pivot toward Europe has occurred, and the next president will have to decide whether to continue or reject this now very clear course of action that the administration has embraced,” said Eli Tenenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “It is the issue that most concerns our European allies.”

The shadow of Marine Le Pen

Less than a year before the end of his term, the French president is beginning a series of farewell appearances.

His final NATO summit this week will be followed by his final speech to the armed forces on the eve of Bastille Day on July 13. The same day, he will host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, to bring together Ukraine's allies before the traditional July 14 military parade in Paris, also his last.

Since 2022, after initially calling NATO “brain dead,” the president has become the face of France’s growing commitment to the Alliance — which could end if Le Pen is elected president.

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, France has increased its presence on the eastern flank, leading NATO forces in Romania and promising in Ankara to send troops to Finland. This comes at a time when France has been forced to withdraw from its former colonies in Africa's Sahel region.

The turn toward Europe has occurred, and the next president will have to decide whether to continue or reject this now very clear course of action, which the administration has embraced, said Eli Tenenbaum.

Paris is also playing a key role in replacing military equipment the US is withdrawing from NATO, including the supply of aircraft carriers. “France alone has met 80 percent of the naval needs created by the US redeployment,” Macron said on Wednesday.

A Le Pen presidency would undo much of Macron's work. She said this week that she plans to run for the National Rally candidate next year, despite being convicted of embezzlement.

In May, the far-right leader said she would withdraw France from NATO’s integrated command during her first term as president, following General Charles de Gaulle’s move in 1966. She also said NATO should “refocus” on fighting radical Islamism and made no promises about French troops on the eastern flank.

More money - but not enough

Whoever becomes president next year will also have to deal with the deteriorating state of France's public finances.

France plans to spend just over 2,5 percent of GDP on defense by 2030, far from the trajectory needed to reach NATO's target of 3,5 percent by 2035. And with public debt exceeding 115 percent of GDP, finding additional money will be very difficult.

While Paris struggles to find the funds, Germany is making rapid progress. French military spending is set to double to 63,3 billion euros by 2027, but Germany is expected to reach 109,7 billion euros next year. The French Chief of the General Staff, Fabien Mandon, warned lawmakers that there was a real risk that Berlin would overtake Paris as the continent's largest military power.

Limited finances have already undermined Macron's ambitions.

He announced in March that France would deploy more nuclear warheads, but the country has not expanded either its navy or air fleet in the last decade due to a lack of funds.

“France has not solved the issue of increasing the size of its forces,” said Martin Quensez, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He said the risk of a miniature “bonsai army that does everything on a very small scale” was a legitimate criticism.

When it comes to the war economy, Kvensez added that "there is an effort that should not be underestimated, but the rhetoric has not been followed by real investments."

For Macron, however, this NATO summit was a confirmation of what he has been advocating for almost a decade: "A Europe that invests in and defends its sovereignty and strategic autonomy within NATO: now we are here," he wrote on social media.

Translation: NB