"Patriot" arrives too slowly for Kyiv

President Donald Trump's promise to allow Kiev to produce American Patriot air defense missiles is a victory for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but it could be at least years before production begins, defense experts say.

Until then, the chronic shortage of interceptor missiles will likely continue, forcing Kiev to make difficult decisions about which targets to prioritize defending, while Russia continues its heavy attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.

Patriot interceptor missiles are crucial to Ukraine's defense at a time when Zelensky claims that Russia, whose advance on the battlefield has been slowed by Ukrainian defense lines, is trying to exploit its advantage in ballistic missiles and intensive attacks to inflict as much damage as possible on Ukraine.

The Patriot system is the only weapon in Ukraine's arsenal capable of stopping Russian ballistic missiles.

However, Trump's promise was vague. He admitted that he had not previously spoken to the companies that produce Patriot interceptors – Lockheed Martin and Raytheon.

Experts say the time it takes to build an assembly plant and organize a network of suppliers will mean that production of the Patriot PAC-2 interceptors, made by Raytheon, or the more advanced PAC-3 missiles from Lockheed Martin, will not begin quickly enough to alleviate Ukraine's plight in the near future.

"In the short term, the impact will be very limited," Fabian Hofman, a missile expert at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies in Oslo, told Reuters.

"I would be very surprised if this were faster than 12 months. I suspect it will take considerably longer."

By comparison, Raytheon reached an agreement with European arms manufacturer MBDA in 2024 to produce the GEM-T interceptor for the PAC-2 system in Germany, but first deliveries are not expected before early 2027.

A spokesman for Lockheed Martin said the company is focused on supporting the US government and allies, adding that further comments on the proposal should be directed to the White House.

Production outside Ukraine?

Ukraine has managed to accelerate the development of its military industry since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, but defense experts say that building a system capable of shooting down missiles traveling at several times the speed of sound is the most difficult challenge in missile technology.

Serhiy Beskrestnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said on Telegram that there is uncertainty about how long it will take subcontractors to increase production of rare components.

One country that could help Kiev speed up this process is Germany, which has developed a domestic production chain for the PAC-2 interceptor.

Two sources familiar with the talks said the new interceptors would likely be manufactured in Germany or another European country, where it is safer, and that production could later be shifted to Ukraine when the war ends.

Zelensky said on Thursday that technical teams would work out the details as soon as possible, but that he wanted production to begin “in Ukraine as soon as possible.” He added that the delivery of the PAC-3 interceptors from the United States was expected “in the coming days.”

He also asked other allies to provide missiles from their own stockpiles, as well as through a NATO-coordinated financial arrangement under which European allies and Canada would transfer funds to the United States to purchase U.S.-made weapons for Ukraine.

Experts say that Patriot missiles are not being produced in sufficient quantities to respond to the Russian ballistic threat, given that Russia annually produces at least 700 to 800 ground-launched Iskander ballistic missiles, as well as air-launched Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles.

Based on the estimate that three Patriot missiles are needed to ensure the interception of one ballistic missile, experts believe that, if Russian production remains at the current level, around 2.400 interceptors would be needed annually.

“Even with a licensed production facility in Ukraine, reaching that number would be very, very difficult, if not impossible,” Hoffman said.

Lockheed Martin delivered just over 600 PAC-3 missiles last year and plans to increase production to about 2.000 annually by 2030. The Ukrainian plant could produce between 200 and 300 interceptors annually, according to Hoffman's estimate.

Need a plan B?

Zelensky said that Ukraine needs a Plan B.

"The only correct option is an alternative to PAC-3," Zelensky said on Wednesday. He hopes that European allies involved in a new missile defense project called Freya, led by Ukrainian company Fire Point, will meet soon in France.

Fire Point is looking to European manufacturers to provide radar, data transmission systems and missile guidance solutions that could be built on the company's existing technology. The goal is to develop a cheaper alternative to the Patriot system by the end of the year.

“Fire Point’s Freya project is a big risk, but if it succeeds, the reward would be huge,” said Jack Watling of the London-based think tank the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).