Kasparov: Putin's next move is an invasion of the Baltics

Vladimir Putin has no intention of concluding a peace agreement with Ukraine and it is more likely that, after the parliamentary elections in Russia in September, he will further escalate the war, Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov told the "Politiko" portal.

The dissident's warning comes as Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian military logistics and energy infrastructure, which Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Cahkna said has made Russia "weaker," and Kiev hopes it could give it an advantage at the negotiating table.

However, Kasparov argues that the increasing pressure makes Putin more inclined to escalate than compromise and that any deal that does not entail Russia's defeat would only give Moscow time to regroup.

"Putin has always escalated when he felt he was in trouble... the most natural form of escalation is provocation," said Kasparov, a former world chess champion and now one of the Kremlin's most prominent critics in exile.

Kasparov, as reported by Politiko, said he expected that such a move could involve an invasion of a country on NATO's eastern flank, such as Latvia or Estonia, with the aim of testing whether other members of the Alliance, and especially the United States, would react.

Kasparov's warning coincides with assessments by Baltic leaders that Russia could step up provocations on NATO's eastern flank. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said yesterday that intelligence indicated the possibility of limited attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland, including energy and transport systems and facilities connected to the European electricity grid. According to him, there is currently no information on the exact location or time of possible attacks.

A similar warning was issued by Latvian President Edgars Rinkėvičs, who assessed that Moscow, faced with increasing Ukrainian pressure, could try to indirectly test NATO's Article 5 and the response mechanisms of the Alliance and the European Union. He said that the coming months, and even the next year, would be particularly important for the security of the Baltics.

As one indication that Moscow is preparing for further conflict, Kasparov pointed to the Russian government's recently proposed changes to the law that would facilitate mobilization by abolishing the medical examination that was previously mandatory for conscripting soldiers.

“There is not a single sign, neither in the Russian propaganda machine, nor in the moves of the Russian government, nor in Putin’s speeches, that the Kremlin is preparing for peace,” he said, adding that all indicators point in only one direction: “War, war, war, war.”

Kasparov dismissed claims that Russia lacked the resources to open a new front. Moscow, he said, would not need to launch a full-scale invasion to undermine NATO's credibility, but could instead seize a small border town, perhaps one with a Russian-speaking population, and wait to see how the Alliance would react.

If the US did not then help defend the attacked country, Kasparov said, Putin would achieve his goal: "NATO no longer exists."

His comments came days after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte admitted that "nobody" knew how to get Putin to sit at the negotiating table, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine entered its fifth year.

Kasparov is one of ten representatives of the Russian democratic opposition who participate in the Platform for Dialogue with Russian Democratic Forces of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. The initiative aims to give Russian democrats in exile a voice in European institutions. Kasparov said that one of its immediate goals is to help Russians who have left the country secure legal status and valid documents after their Russian documents expire.

He also said that European governments should launch a migration program aimed at educated and skilled Russians who are ready to break with the Kremlin.

"What is Putin's weakest point? Smart people. Computer experts, engineers, financial experts... They don't need welfare, they just need documents. So why not offer them a chance to cross over to the other side?" he said.

More broadly, he said Europe should abandon the idea that the war can be ended through compromise and dedicate itself entirely to Ukraine's victory.

"Our greatest hope is to separate Putin from the elites," he said, arguing that Ukrainian attacks inside Russia were already putting pressure on the country's power centers. "The Ukrainians are doing a very good job because every time they hit something, someone loses money."

Kasparov said the EU should tighten sanctions and ban the issuance of tourist visas to Russian citizens as part of those efforts.

“We have to make sure Putin loses,” he said, “because the moment Putin loses the war, he falls.”