Azerbaijan and Armenia are in "real peace", but Baku is seeking constitutional changes before a final agreement

Azerbaijan and Armenia are at "real peace" and are restoring trade ties after decades of conflict, a senior Azerbaijani official told Reuters. However, Baku is insisting on changes to the Armenian constitution before a final peace agreement can be signed.

The two neighbors in the South Caucasus have been at war intermittently since the late 1980s, mainly over the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, before reaching a preliminary peace agreement brokered by the United States in August last year.

For Azerbaijan, the main obstacle to signing a formal agreement is the preamble to the Armenian constitution, which contains a reference to another document from the Soviet period, which speaks of the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, then an autonomous region in Soviet Azerbaijan, writes Reuters.

The territory enjoyed de facto independence for three decades and was governed by an ethnic Armenian administration, before Azerbaijan took it over in a swift military operation in 2023. Most of the approximately 100.000 inhabitants fled to Armenia.

Lasting peace could reopen trade and transport links across the South Caucasus, strengthen the connectivity of Asia and Europe, and simultaneously shift the regional influence of Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

In an interview with Reuters during a forum in the city of Shusha this week, Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to the Azerbaijani president and head of the presidential foreign policy department, praised the two countries' progress towards peace, including increasing direct contacts and growing bilateral trade.

"We live in conditions of real peace. For Azerbaijan and Armenia, peace is not just something written on paper or contained in a declaration – it is a reality," Hajiyev said, pointing to the increase in deliveries of Azerbaijani oil products to Armenia.

Despite the progress, he said Baku remains steadfast in its stance on the Armenian constitution.

"The form of constitutional changes is an internal matter of Armenia," Hajiyev said.

"What is important for Azerbaijan is that the provisions that we consider territorial claims against our country are officially removed, either through the adoption of a new constitution or some other legal mechanism."

"Once that issue is resolved, we believe there will be no more obstacles to signing a final peace agreement," he said.

"Positive signals" about the planned transit corridor

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he wants to hold a referendum on changing the constitution and that a draft of the new constitutional document will be published by the end of this year.

However, his Civil Contract party does not have the constitutional majority in parliament needed to call a referendum, and it is unclear whether the opposition, dominated by pro-Russian groups, will join him.

Hadziyev said that simply publishing the draft would not be enough to sign a peace agreement.

He also said that Azerbaijan has received "serious and positive signals" from the United States that construction of a planned transport corridor in the region, with Washington's support, could begin this fall.

Dubbed the "Trump Corridor for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP), the proposed 43-kilometer corridor would pass through Armenia and provide Azerbaijan with a direct connection to its exclave of Nakhchivan and close ally Turkey.

This route would further connect Asia and Europe at a time when Washington wants to diversify energy and trade flows and reduce dependence on Russia due to the war in Ukraine.

"Our position is that this (TRIPP) should be implemented as soon as possible," Hadzijev said.

He added that the infrastructure extending to the southwestern Azerbaijani region of Zangilan will be largely completed by the end of 2026, after which it could be connected to planned infrastructure in Armenia and Turkey.