Zelensky's visit is like a tailwind for Vučić

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Serbia last night, on his first visit to the country, during which the main topics of discussion are expected to be economic cooperation and the efforts of both countries to become members of the European Union, Reuters reported.

Zelensky posted a video of his arrival on Telegram ahead of meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and other officials.

"We will discuss expanding economic ties between our countries, relations with the European Union and other issues that may benefit our peoples, as well as security issues," Zelensky wrote.

Although Western media are emphasizing that the visit could further worsen relations between Serbia and Russia, its long-time ally and main supplier of natural gas, some analysts believe that it could strengthen Aleksandar Vučić's political position and influence future political developments in the country.

Analyst Zoran Kusovac, in an extensive post on the social network X, assessed that with this move, Vučić further strengthened his political position and "outsmarted" the opposition.

"By organizing Zelensky's visit to Belgrade, he has secured himself another mandate, whenever elections are held (he decides on that) and for whatever position he runs for (probably prime minister, because he cannot run for a third presidential term)," wrote X Kusovac online, who has been dealing with international relations, security issues and military conflicts for decades.

Kusovac believes that Vučić managed to be everything to everyone: "a "patriot" in the country, a "defender of Serbianness"... and "in international relations he was a good ally of the USA and Israel, while only declaratively expressing his commitment to the Serbian-Russian brotherhood", which never existed.

According to him, the sale of Serbian weapons to Israel and Ukraine brought Belgrade significant political support.

“Arms sales to Israel and Ukraine have secured him the support of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu,” Kusovac wrote. “The former is politically important because it has turned into a tacit agreement to rig elections to his liking; the latter has provided him with the intelligence resources, software, and know-how for Orwellian control of everything and everyone in Serbia who are not unquestioning Vučić supporters and obedient soldiers. The European Union is institutionally impotent, short-sighted, and unwilling to take a leading role.”

He assessed that Russia is not satisfied with the cooperation between Belgrade and Kiev, but that it has no possibility to stop it. "Russia cannot stand the fact that Serbia is selling ammunition to Ukraine, but it cannot prevent it," Kusovac stated.

Commenting on the domestic political situation, he assessed that the opposition has been in a deadlock for years, "unable to take a clear position on any issue or to show any creative thinking or connection with Europeans and Americans", while he said of the European Union that it is "institutionally powerless, short-sighted and unwilling to take on a leading role".

Kusovac assessed that a significant portion of the electorate is inclined to support the government due to strong propaganda, but also due to the concrete benefits that the state provides to citizens.

"The average Serbian voter is indoctrinated, devoid of principles, greedy, and easily won over by small favors or symbolic gifts that Vučić generously distributes from the state treasury, simply increasing the foreign debt," Kusovac wrote.

In his opinion, Vučić counted in advance on the fact that Zelensky's announced visit would cause dissatisfaction among pro-Russian voters and a reaction from Moscow, which is why he simultaneously sought to further strengthen his patriotic image.

"Vučić knew that Russophiles would be confused by Zelensky's visit and that the Kremlin would attack him whenever and however it wanted. It cannot overthrow him, but it can make the elections more uncertain," Kusovac said.

He claims that this is why harsh rhetoric towards Croatia followed, which he considers part of a broader political strategy aimed at the domestic public.

"It's just another lie, a play for the masses, with the aim of sending the message: 'He is a good Serb, he knows what he is doing. The Church and the Patriarch support him,'" Kusovac wrote.

At the end of his analysis, he concluded that the Serbian president is trying to unite different political directions and patterns of governance. "Šešelj's student and clone is now trying to imitate Tito. And not without some success," concluded Kusovac.

While Belgrade interprets the visit as confirmation of the policy of balancing between East and West, Kiev says it is an opportunity to strengthen relations between the two countries and weaken Russian influence in the Balkans.

A senior Ukrainian official told AFP that Ukraine wants to bring Serbia closer to its Western allies, while the visit was described in some media as an important political message to Moscow.

Vučić, as reported by N1, said that he has met with Zelensky five or six times so far and that the main topics of discussion will be European integration, economic cooperation, and energy.

"We have several important topics. One is the European path of Ukraine and Serbia, since we are in a similar situation and face the same or similar problems on our European path. I believe that we will discuss how and in what way we can help each other, if possible, and learn some things from each other," said Vučić.

The President of Serbia also reminded that Ukraine has not recognized Kosovo's independence, nor that representatives of Pristina have not been invited to the Ukraine - Southeast Europe summits.

"These are things that we must respect," said Vučić.

When asked whether Zelensky's visit could mean a change in Serbia's foreign policy course and the introduction of sanctions against Russia, Vučić dismissed such a possibility.

"Regarding sanctions, let me answer you directly: Serbia has established its own policy. Volodymyr Zelensky will, I am sure, in accordance with his struggle and his views, say what he thinks about sanctions against the Russian Federation, but the Republic of Serbia expressed its views four and a half years ago, almost five years ago, and it will remain so in the future," Vučić said.

German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) announced that the realization of the visit had long been uncertain, not only due to the development of the situation on the front but also due to opposition from some Ukrainian political circles.

According to the newspaper, there is a group in Kiev that opposed Zelensky's arrival in Serbia, which it considers a "Russophile state in the Balkans."

FAZ also states that Ukraine has been interested in developing cooperation with the Serbian defense industry for a long time, and that former US Ambassador to Belgrade Christopher Hill played an important role in connecting the two sides.

Speaking to the German newspaper, Hill said that at the beginning of his term, the Ukrainian side submitted a list of military equipment it needed.

“My embassy team inquired whether the Serbs were able to meet those needs, and they were,” Hill said.

According to him, Washington then supported the purchase of significant quantities of Serbian ammunition that ended up in Ukraine through intermediaries.

FAZ also states that the possibility of joint production of unmanned aerial vehicles is being considered, within the framework of an arrangement in which Ukraine would provide technology, Serbia production capacities, and the United Arab Emirates financial resources.

"The fact that Putin's greatest enemy, Zelensky, is now paying an official visit to Serbia allows certain conclusions to be drawn about Serbian expectations of the future course of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The leadership in Belgrade clearly does not have the impression that Putin's forces are facing a decisive victory in Ukraine in the short term. Accordingly, relations with Ukraine are developing, but without severing ties with Russia," the German newspaper states.

Serbia has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine since the beginning of the war, but has refused to join the European Union's sanctions against Moscow. At the same time, Belgrade has continued to maintain political and economic ties with both the West and Russia, seeking to maintain its position between the two opposing geopolitical blocs.

The two presidents last met in mid-July in Kiev, at the Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit. At that time, Vučić confirmed that he had not signed a joint declaration on continued political, military, financial and security support for Ukraine and additional pressure on Russia.