Russian rival to Starlink is progressing faster than planned

Russia is rapidly working to build its own satellite internet system in low Earth orbit, which could make Ukraine more vulnerable to new attacks, the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, warned this week.

Ukraine gained a battlefield advantage earlier this year after its former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, convinced Elon Musk to deny Russian forces operating in Ukraine access to Starlink. This made it difficult for Russian communications and targeting.

Russia is now rapidly developing Rasvet, or "Dawn," a counterpart to SpaceX's Starlink, which is being developed by Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440.

"They started launching it much faster than originally planned," Skibicki said.

Russia launched the first 16 satellites of the Rasvet system in March. Bureau 1440 announced in July that a second group of satellites had been successfully launched.

"The spacecraft have separated from the launch vehicle and established contact with the flight control center. After completing the checks and commissioning of the subsystems, the satellites will begin the transition to the target orbit to provide communication services," the Bureau 1440 company said.

Serhiy Beskrestnov, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said yesterday that Russia currently has about 40 Rasvet satellites in space.

According to Skibitsky, Russia plans to form a constellation of 292 satellites in low orbit by 2027, which will regularly pass over Eastern Europe, and to expand it to 924 satellites by 2035.

Russia is working "as quickly as possible," Beskrestnov said.

When the constellation becomes operational, Rasvet will pose a major problem for Ukraine.

"The Russians will be able to attack our entire country using drones that they will control in real time via their satellites," Beskrestnov said.

The lightening also poses a threat to Europe, as Moscow will have its own system for controlling drones far from its territory.

"These drones could carry satellite terminals, which would allow the Russians to control and guide them in real time over long distances," Beskrestnov told Politico.

Rasvet already has certain capabilities over the territory of Ukraine, Skibicki said.

The threat posed by Rasvet is prompting Ukraine to increase pressure on Musk to allow it to use Starlink signals over Russia — something Starlink has so far refused to do. This would allow Ukraine to more precisely guide missiles and drones that strike targets deep inside Russian territory.

Musk's policy shift could help Ukraine maintain the battlefield advantage it gained earlier this year.

"We are destroying ballistic missile launchers and conducting operations, but if Elon Musk turns on Starlink over Russia for us, it would make things easier for us," Irina Tereh, director of Ukrainian missile and drone manufacturer Fire Point, told Politico this week.

"Our efficiency would really increase."