Russia's Supreme Court earlier this week upheld a lawsuit that led to the exclusion of the opposition party Yabloko from the parliamentary elections to be held from September 18 to 20. The name Yabloko, which means "apple" in Russian, originally came from the initials of the surnames of the party's three founders, Grigory Yavlinsky, Yuri Boldyrev, and Vladimir Lukin. At the same time, the apple is also the party's recognizable symbol.
The lawsuit was filed by the Rodina (Homeland) party, which is considered close to the Kremlin. It accuses Yabloko of violating copyright in its election materials. It also raises suspicions of extremist activities and funding from abroad.
DON'T MISS IT
The ruling was handed down by Judge Vyacheslav Kirillov, the same judge who had previously banned the Russian human rights organization Memorial and dismissed a lawsuit against the Russian prison service by opposition politician Alexei Navalny. Navalny spent several years in Russian prisons and died in 2024.
Hundreds of people in court
At least 500 people gathered in front of the Supreme Court to support Yabloko. They handed out apples and sang songs. After the nine-hour session, members of the security forces threatened to arrest and take the young men to military recruitment centers.
"You are mistaken if you think that it is possible to write off millions of people who want peace, freedom and a normal future for their country with one stroke of the pen," Yabloko chairman Nikolai Rybakov wrote on Telegram that evening. The party, he added, had not violated Russian laws and announced it would appeal the ruling.
Yulia Navalny: The Kremlin is scared
Party founder Grigory Yavlinsky said the government is afraid of Yabloko's program, which calls for elections "for peace, freedom and life without fear."
"To exclude a party with such a program from the elections without real reasons means that the political system is exposing itself."
The lawsuit coincided with a call from Russian opposition politicians and cultural workers in exile to support Yabloko.
Among them are politician Yulia Navalny, the widow of Alexei Navalny, as well as Lyubov Sobol, Ilya Yashin and Andrey Pivovarov. Writer Dmitry Bykov, human rights activist Oleg Orlov and other prominent public figures have also supported Yabloko.
Following the verdict, Yulia Navalny, head of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), founded by Alexei Navalny, also spoke out. According to her, the Kremlin initially intended to allow Yabloko to participate in the elections. However, the authorities then "got scared" and decided to expel the party, she claims.
Navalny wrote on Telegram that the authorities had noticed a development they were trying to prevent at all costs: people were starting to gather and connect. It was less about supporting Yabloko itself and more about the opportunity for millions of Russians to express their real views on Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine.
Andrei Pivovarov, who lives in exile and coordinates the network of Russian oppositionists "Consul of the Anti-War Committee of Russia", told Deutsche Welle (DW) that the opposition did not see in supporting Yablok an opportunity for quick political change or an end to the war. The goal, he says, was to make the anti-war sentiment in Russia visible.
"There would be a dozen parties on the ballot supporting the war and one advocating peace. Even if Yabloko had entered the State Duma, the war would not have ended. But it would have become clear that there are many opponents of the war among Russians," Pivovarov said.
He added that this mood will not disappear even after Yabloko's exclusion from the elections.
What was the Kremlin planning with Yabloko?
Political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky, speaking to DW, speculates that Yabloko's exclusion could be a consequence of a struggle for influence between different interest groups within the Kremlin.
According to this theory, a security bloc linked to the Federal Security Service (FSB) wanted Yabloko as a counterweight to the New People party, which is considered the project of Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration.
According to another version of events, it was Kiriyenko who wanted to create the impression of political competition, but in doing so underestimated the strength of the anti-war sentiment.
The state authorities are underestimating the number of war opponents in Russia who are ready to support a political option that advocates ending the war against Ukraine, Preobrazhensky believes. Polls indicate significant demand for such a political alternative.
And according to his assessment, the Kremlin originally intended to allow Yabloko to run in the elections, but changed its decision after support for the party began to grow.
Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov sees another possible motive. Yabloko's very poor election performance could serve as evidence to the Kremlin that the population supports the war. At the same time, a poor result could demoralize opponents of the war.
The exclusion of Yabloko further complicates independent election monitoring. The party is no longer allowed to send its representatives to polling stations. Until now, it has been through them that it has also provided access to independent observers, Russian election expert Roman Udot told DW.
Is the Kremlin keeping the situation under control?
The State Duma elections are taking place at a time of growing uncertainty in Russian society, according to Margarita Zavadskaya of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
She cites data from the Russian Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), which regularly monitors whether citizens are optimistic or concerned about the situation in the country. At the end of July, 57 percent of respondents said they felt concerned, the highest value since the mobilization in the fall of 2022.
Although the results of the FOM survey should be viewed with caution, this growth in the middle of summer shows that "something is not going according to plan," Zavadskaya believes.
She cites the increasing frequency of drone attacks, human casualties, warehouse fires and rumors of a new mobilization as reasons. The summer of 2026 is the most disturbing for the Russian population since the beginning of the all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine, she believes.
At the same time, he adds that it is more likely that the number of supporters of the war will decline rather than increase.
This could cause nervousness to grow in the Kremlin itself: "For the Kremlin, the ideal scenario would be boring elections with low turnout and no significant events. But that currently seems unlikely, because the situation ahead of the election does not look normal nor does it give the impression that the state authorities have things fully under control," Zavadskaya concludes.
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
