EU defense readiness by 2030 under question

The European Union's ability to respond to an external invasion by 2030 remains in question due to its continued dependence on the United States and fragmented national defense systems, according to a report by its official audit body.

The European Court of Auditors (ECA) has said that the EU is now significantly better prepared than before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but that achieving the defense readiness target by the end of the decade will be difficult, the Guardian reported.

“Achieving EU defence readiness by 2030 remains a challenge,” said Marek Opjola, an ECA member who led the analysis of EU defence policy, published yesterday. “There are still major problems, such as fragmented national systems and industrial bottlenecks. We also remain dependent on the US.”

Speaking to The Guardian, he stressed that the EU "could still make great progress" if it significantly increased defense spending and rapidly expanded ammunition production.

Between 2020 and 2025, EU member states increased their defense spending by 79 percent, in response to the Russian threat and as part of a belated effort to meet NATO’s defense spending goals. In November 2024, the EU fulfilled its promise to provide Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition – eight months later than planned.

The EU last year set a goal of reaching defense readiness by 2030, after intelligence agencies warned that Russia could be ready to wage a large-scale war in Europe around that time.

The EU's financial watchdog said that achieving that goal would require overcoming significant challenges. One senior auditor described the goal as “having strategic autonomy” and “the ability to sustain high-intensity combat operations independently.”

He said the EU was better prepared today than in 2019, when a similar analysis was conducted, but warned that fragmented national defense industries and "insufficient cooperation" among member state governments increased the risk of duplication of spending and permanent gaps in military capabilities.

The report also points to a potential mismatch between short-term battlefield needs and the “Buy European” policy, which aims to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Between February 2022 and June 2023, 78 percent of defense purchases by EU governments came from outside the Union, with the United States alone accounting for 63 percent, according to a study cited by the ECA.

The auditor general said that purchases from the US increased after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, “which was understandable because the EU had to quickly find available capacity.” He added that there were “first signs of improvement in the situation,” although the auditors did not have complete data on which to draw conclusions.

He also said that sometimes "it can make sense" to buy outside the EU "when there is an urgent short-term need", but that the Union should always have a plan for how to develop key capacities that it does not have on its own in the long term.