"It would be a completely different Sweden"

Swedes will vote today in an uncertain election that has effectively turned into a referendum on whether the far-right Sweden Democrats should enter government, completing their journey from political outlaws to reliable partners in a country once considered one of the most liberal in Europe.

The party, whose roots go back to fringe neo-Nazi circles, has the support of around 19 percent of voters according to the latest polls, and the ruling minority center-right coalition has promised to include it in its bloc to secure a second term for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

"We agreed that we would go into the campaign with a platform of forming a joint majority government and that I would lead that government," Kristerson told Reuters during the election campaign in late August.

The election will show whether Swedish voters want to further deepen a political shift that has already shattered decades of consensus on immigration and national identity and turned one of Europe's most open societies into a testing ground for stricter policies on integration, citizenship and border control.

Kristerson credited his parliamentary cooperation with Sweden Democrats leader Jimmi Okeson, which has been in place since 2022, with economic growth, lower energy and food prices, a reduction in gang crime and shootings, and a record low in asylum applications. He promised to deepen the cooperation further after the election and offer the party ministerial posts.

Over the past four years, the government has abolished permanent residency for refugees, tightened rules for receiving social benefits, and increased the number of expulsions of people who have no right to remain in the country.

The number of asylum applications has fallen to its lowest level in 40 years, and while Kristerson says the focus will now be on integration, the Sweden Democrats want to go a step further.

"In Sweden, Swedish culture, Swedish language, Swedish laws, Swedish norms, Swedish morals and Swedish traditions apply," Mathias Karlsson, a Sweden Democrats MP and one of Jimmie Åkesson's closest associates, told Reuters.

"If you can't accept that, you need to find another place to live."

Despite broad consensus on a tough immigration policy, many Swedes remain deeply uneasy with the far right, and polls suggest a highly uncertain election race. The center-left opposition, which backs Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson for prime minister, still has a small but shrinking lead.

“If the Sweden Democrats enter the government, it would have an extremely negative impact on the liberal ideals of our country,” said Birgitta Olsson, Minister for European Affairs from 2010 to 2014 and now a member of parliament for the Centre Party.

"We've already seen the impact they have outside the government, and it would be ten times worse if they were in it."

The new political landscape

The rise of the far-right has reshaped Europe's political landscape, with such parties already participating in government in countries such as Finland, Italy, Croatia and the Czech Republic, while at the same time posing a growing political challenge in France and Germany.

Jimi Åkesson's Sweden Democrats have been the main parliamentary support of Kristersson's government for the past four years, and some analysts believe that the upcoming elections may not be so much a turning point as a confirmation of Åkesson's success in freeing the party from the burden of its extremist past. The party apologized in 2025 for its past neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic views.

"This election is a referendum on the Sweden Democrats - on whether we will continue down the path of the far right," Jan Guillou, a writer and political commentator, told Reuters.

Policies that a decade ago would have been seen by many Swedes as a rejection of the country's liberal values ​​are now accepted across much of the political spectrum.

The two political blocs have also converged on several issues that are among the most important to voters. Both promise stronger social protection, continued support for Ukraine, rearmament and measures to ease the cost of living crisis that has hit many households hard.

“I think we will see a continued normalization of the Sweden Democrats,” said Lars Tragord, a historian and author who led work on the government’s cultural heritage list, once criticized as too narrow and exclusive.

“It’s time to reduce the hysteria.”

Another twist?

Critics, however, fear that the Sweden Democrats' promises to end multiculturalism, restore traditional Swedish values ​​and ban certain forms of Muslim dress could further deepen social divisions and shift the country's political balance even further to the right.

"I'm afraid that more people will be expelled. I'm worried about the media, freedom of speech and the right to protest," said Kurdo Baksi, a writer and anti-racism activist, on the sidelines of a rally in support of immigration in Stockholm.

In a message published as part of the campaign on Facebook, Andersson said that the choice before voters is not only between her and current Prime Minister Kristersson, but also about whether the Sweden Democrats will shape policy in the areas of defense, education, culture and finance.

"That would be a completely different Sweden," she said.

Even if he wins, Anderson will have an extremely difficult task of forming a stable coalition.

The four opposition parties, the Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left and the Center Party, largely agree on increasing social benefits and public spending.

However, they disagree on key issues, from introducing a tax on billionaires to whether Sweden should build new nuclear reactors, while the Center Party refuses to be in the same government with the Left.