Truth and lies about Islam in Europe

Panic over Islam is spreading in Europe. In several European countries, half the population now believes that Islam is incompatible with Western values. The populist right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, its best result in state elections to date, warning of “Islamization” and promising forced deportations. In Britain, hundreds of masked thugs occupied Dover that same weekend, chanting “Stop the ships” and “Christ is king.” In France, Marine Le Pen’s call to ban Islamic headscarves in public places is supported by 60 percent of voters.

This obsession has taken root in America as well. The fear is no longer so much of terrorists, as after September 11, 2001, but of an alleged Islamic conspiracy to take over Europe from within. Members of Donald Trump's administration are warning of "civilizational erasure."

Such a perception is damaging to transatlantic relations. It is also wrong. Europe is not threatened by an Islamic takeover, by the mass radicalization of Muslims, or by the erasure of its culture. There are no so-called “no-go zones” in Europe, areas where the state supposedly does not enter; Sharia law is not creeping into national legislation, and there is no demographic “great replacement” taking place anywhere.

The real danger for Europe is different: the extremism fueled by Islamism (the belief that the state should enforce Islamic principles) and the right-wing paranoia fueled by social media. The left exacerbates this by denying the modest but real threats that Islamism poses. So do centrist politicians, keeping quiet lest they be accused of racism. This dynamic could actually harm Europe’s liberal democracies – not by replacing them with a caliphate, but by slowing down integration and playing into policies that would harm their freedoms in the long run.

The most extreme fears are easily dispelled. Even after record migration from Muslim-majority countries, Muslims today make up just six percent of Europe's population, which numbers well over 500 million people. Although newcomers tend to have more children than the native population, fertility rates generally converge within two generations. That's a far cry from civilizational obliteration.

In fact, most Muslim immigrants want to find their way in their new homeland, not impose some version of the societies they have just left. Their children tend to do better in school than their parents. In Britain, 67 percent of Bangladeshi students who took standardised tests in 2021 had enrolled in university by the age of 19, compared with 38 percent of white Britons. Many Muslims participate in mainstream politics: the UK’s home secretary and the mayor of London are examples. In important ways, Muslim views can be similar to those of other Europeans. In a survey we commissioned of British Muslims, we found little opposition to women working.

So what has turned so many Europeans against Islam? Many Muslims have illiberal views - the murder of an openly gay imam in South Africa is one example. In Britain, our poll shows, 52 percent of Muslims believe homosexuality is wrong, and young Muslims - 41 percent of those under 35 - are more likely than older Muslims, who are 25 percent, to believe that violence can be justified if someone insults the prophet.

In itself, espousing socially conservative views does not make people a threat – some of Europe’s right-wing defenders are as anti-gay as they are anti-Muslim. But some of these views should worry liberals who have long believed that open societies make people more tolerant over time. And if the state is too timid to confront crimes committed by minorities, as when gangs of Muslim men abused girls in several English towns, that is rightly causing outrage.

Even after record migration from Muslim-majority countries, Muslims today make up just six percent of Europe's population of well over 500 million. Although newcomers tend to have more children than the native population, fertility rates generally converge within two generations.

Equally important is the identification of Islam, as a religion, with Islamism, as a political ideology. Islam is not the problem; Islamism can be. Unlike the jihadists of the 9/11 era, most Islamists do not advocate violence. But many practice “entrism” – the infiltration of democratic institutions to promote an illiberal agenda. Well-connected Islamist groups might lobby for comprehensive hate speech laws or against counter-extremism programs. The main danger from entrism is local. Small, well-organized networks can take over a school, a mosque, a municipal council, or a humanitarian organization and use such institutions to discourage integration and impose religious conformity on other Muslims living nearby.

Concern about these nonviolent Islamists has grown among European security services. In France, authorities fear a covert Muslim Brotherhood infiltration. An official report published last year warned that Islamism could, over time, undermine secular rules and women's rights. But that seems unlikely. The French Interior Ministry estimates that only 139 of 2.800 Muslim places of worship are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Instead, the main victims are other Muslims. In Blackburn, in the north of England, in half of the 12 constituencies, Muslims make up more than 60 percent of the population; in two, more than 80 percent. In such environments, women may feel pressured to leave the management of their family lives to Sharia councils. Gay and liberal Muslims face intimidation. Muslims who do not fit the imposed mold complain that Western authorities - for fear of being seen as racist - do not offer them the same protections as non-Muslim citizens.

Unlike the jihadists of the 9/11 era, most Islamists do not advocate violence. But many practice “entrism” – infiltrating democratic institutions to promote an illiberal agenda.

The damage is wider. Islamists incite anti-Semitism, especially in relation to Gaza. They seek to restrict freedom of speech when it comes to their beliefs. They intimidate politicians, comedians, academics and journalists into self-censorship. They can put pressure on schools, student unions, humanitarian organisations and municipal councils.

What turns these local threats into a continental danger is the way they are misused. It suits Islamists to claim that any criticism of their political project is an attack on Islam itself. The populist left, including the France Inconquerable (LFI) and the Greens in Britain, tends to treat issues of migration, crime or Islamism as racist.

The populist right, on the other hand, often stokes fear by claiming that all Muslims are a threat and accusing the state of “cover-ups” and “double standards.” Few have been more vocal about this than Elon Musk, who has used his social media to shape attitudes about Islam around the world and to bolster Europe’s anti-Muslim right, from the AfD to British agitator Tommy Robinson.

The recipes of the populist right are as illiberal as the policies of the Islamists from whom it claims to defend Europe. Promises of mass deportations, segregation, and dress codes frighten Muslims, hinder integration, and push them into the arms of extremists. Any country that adopts such policies would find that it would incite hatred that would leave lasting damage.

That is why mainstream European politicians must offer an alternative. Violence and threats of violence should be prosecuted. But there must be no taboos in the name of cultural sensitivity. Freedom of speech is not the enemy of tolerance, but its prerequisite. Entrenchment should be clearly pointed out, as should intolerance. Governments that hesitate to collect or publish data leave a void that is filled by speculation and exaggeration.

European Muslims are fitting into the societies they live in, just as waves of Catholic, Jewish, and Caribbean migrants had earlier fitted into the countries they settled in. The arrival of all these previous groups sparked moral panics about whether they would ever fit in. They all eventually found their place. Muslims will find their place too - if division and paranoia don't get in the way.

Prepared by: A. Š.