Brussels Institute: EU unprepared for enlargement, although integration without membership leads to the same goal

The European Union is now unprepared to accept new members, and the incorporation of countries like Iceland or Norway into the single market, the application of all EU provisions in those countries, shows that even without membership, it can lead to the same goal of stability and progress in Europe.

This is highlighted in two comparative analyses by the Brussels-based European Policy Center (EPC), whose statements are being closely monitored in EU bodies.

An analysis by Andrew Duff, a former European Parliament representative in the drafting of the EU's founding act, the Lisbon Treaty, suggests that "despite verbal support, the European Council, the EU's leaders, are stuck in disagreements over enlargement."

That is why we are eagerly awaiting what the European Commission will propose in the new enlargement strategy this fall, Duff points out.

The Brussels Institute, in its extensive analysis of this expert, points out that "now is a crucial moment for the EU as it faces the challenge of accepting new members and the necessary reform of its own government structures."

The EPC concludes in a comparative analysis that, although the citizens of Iceland rejected full EU membership in a referendum, the incorporation of Iceland, as well as Norway, into the European Economic Area, i.e. the single market, the practical application of practically all rules, the "acquis communautaire" in these countries, and their inclusion in Schengen, testify that full membership has never been the only model of integration.

And, as it is emphasized, "this does not mean that geopolitics is unimportant for enlargement, but it does indicate that geopolitical alignment and institutional integration may not always be the way to go towards the same goal."

Daf, who is also the vice-president of the EU Liberal Democrats, proposes more concrete reforms of institutions before a member state is admitted to the Union, "because without democratic reorganization, the enlarged Union will fail."

But, as he points out, "given the imperialist behavior of the US, Russia and China... the European Union needs stable and strong borders, so along with building up its defense, enlargement is a powerful tool of foreign and security policy."

The EPC analyst believes that opposition to enlargement in some EU member states will subside over time, especially if "one day Putin and Trump make a sudden, dirty deal over Ukraine."

Duff believes that "rapid progress and fulfillment of all criteria for membership by 2028 by the leading candidate Montenegro, a small and fragile country, cannot be enough to get the EU out of the deadlock... and as things stand, the Union is not ready for enlargement."

He concludes that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is now proposing "two big things at the same time, enlargement and reform within the EU, and the Union has so far been incapable of implementing either of them."

"The problem," as the Brussels-based center analyst explains, "is that it would have to be smoothly accepted by all EU members, both those who want to stop the enlargement and those who are against deeper integration of the Union itself... And this at a time when right-wing nationalism is a powerful force in several EU member states."