The new US President Donald Trump's phone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen sparked justified speculation about the consequences of that move for the future of US relations with China and Taiwan, according to CNN today.
In an article authored by Zhang Baohui, professor of political science and director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, it warns that Trump risks provoking a hostile reaction from China and reigniting the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia.
Judging by the first reaction of the Ministry of Affairs of China Wang Yi, Beijing seems to have opted for a restrained response, the text states.
Wang instead criticized Taiwan for "dirty tricks" to manipulate relations between Taipei and Washington.
The text on the CNN website indicates that the telephone conversation between Trump and Tsai could provide important hints about how the new US president will make foreign policy decisions.
"It seems that this conversation confirms expectations in wide circles that Trump will not be able to act diplomatically in sensitive issues. Instead, his impulsiveness could lead to unexpected consequences and shock in foreign capitals," the author of the article states.
He draws parallels between Trump's conversation with the Taiwanese president and the "warm words" he addressed to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Wednesday, which, as the author estimates, could cause resentment in many circles in India.
"Both cases hint that the world may have to get used to a less disciplined American president who is not bound, or does not want to be bound, by traditional diplomatic rules and norms that would apply to any other US president," the text assesses.
This scenario, it is added, does not bode well when it comes to relations between the US and China, which in recent years have been marked by rising tensions, and the lack of mutual strategic distrust is leading relations between them in the direction of a new Cold War.
"In that context, the worst that could happen would involve actions or words from either side that would further widen their mutual strategic distrust. Trump must therefore learn how to become a more disciplined and diplomatically skilled president regarding the highly sensitive trilateral relationship Beijing-Taipei-Washington", the author of the text points out.
The Trump administration should avoid sending the wrong signals to the Taiwanese president's government as this would only encourage it to pursue an even bolder revisionist policy of challenging the "one China" policy, which in turn would increase the risk of a direct military conflict between China and the US.
"War in the Western Pacific is the last thing Beijing and Washington would want, so it is in the US interest to continue to curb Taiwan's revisionist tendencies while at the same time dissuading Beijing from unilaterally changing the status quo by force," the text concludes.
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