Vladimir Putin cited the success of the Russian army there as the reason for reducing the military presence in Syria. However, it will rather be that he was led to do so by his belief that this intervention secured him a seat at the head table of world events, assesses the Reuters agency.
The operation in Syria made military, diplomatic and domestic political sense for Russia, which sought to support its closest Middle Eastern ally and protect its only naval base in the Mediterranean. Reuters reports that it largely achieved both goals.
However, based on the comments of the Russian president and other officials, and conversations with people familiar with his thinking, one can conclude that his primary goal is to make Russia so indispensable to the Syrian peace process that it regains some of the global influence enjoyed by the Soviet Union.
"Russia is back on the global board of directors," said Alexander Baunov of the Moscow Carnegie Center. "She returned to the table where world and regional powers decide the fate of other conflicts, and Russia is clearly not a local, but a global player."
Putin is known to be mysterious and unpredictable and his decision to begin the withdrawal from Syria is no exception. She only confides in a small number of people around her and surprised many in the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense, the analysis said.
"I spent the whole day at the Ministry of Defense and nobody made a peep," a ministry source told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
In half a year, Russia went from being a country isolated by the West due to the annexation of Crimea and support for rebels in the east of Ukraine to becoming a useful partner in Syria and a regular interlocutor with Washington and the European Union leaders.
"Putin has already received all the political benefits," says Nikolai Petrov, a political expert at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. "It is better to withdraw before the costs rise, before an incident occurs and before the risks become too high."
Reuters estimates that the five-month operation cost the Kremlin $700-800 million. The human cost is even greater. Although the Russian military's official death toll is only four, Islamic State has claimed responsibility for shooting down a Russian airliner over Egypt in October, killing 224 people, in revenge for Syria.
Russian officials point out that it was Russia that brokered the immediate cessation of hostilities in Syria with the US, and they rarely miss a chance to note that the Americans have been coming to them for help with the crisis there.
Even Putin's critics see the influence Syria has given the Russian leader.
"There is one man on this planet who can end the civil war in Syria with a phone call and that is Mr Putin," British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told the BBC last month.
By partially withdrawing, after a campaign in which more than 9.000 airstrikes were carried out, the Kremlin reduced the possibility of being drawn into a potential regional conflict with Turkey or Saudi Arabia, according to the British agency.
And while it ultimately did not help deliver a spectacular battlefield victory like the complete conquest of Aleppo, Russia believes it did enough to ensure that President Bashar al-Assad and his forces maintain their current position.
The intervention helped keep Putin's popularity high at home and served as a useful distraction during a time of economic trouble. State TV, accompanied by an orchestra and inspired speeches, presented the decision to begin the withdrawal as the culmination of a short, victorious war.
However, although some see Putin's decision as a diplomatic success, Reuters assesses that his country's return to the world stage is not entirely successful.
He reminds that US and EU sanctions are still in force, complicating the domestic financial crisis, aggravated by the drop in oil prices.
And the decision to reduce the military presence, some analysts believe, was motivated more by weakness and the understanding that Russia cannot reach an agreement with the West regarding Syria in order to have its sanctions lifted.
Others, including a Western diplomat who told Reuters the news came as a complete and inexplicable surprise to him, say Putin's motives are inscrutable.
"None of us know what Putin is up to when he takes action, so he's a very difficult partner in any situation like this," Hammond said.
Putin's move is being interpreted in some circles as an attempt to influence the outcome of the Syrian peace talks in Geneva and perhaps to pressure Assad to get serious about reaching an agreement.
However, according to a Reuters analysis, few in Russia believe that Assad is in danger of losing Putin's support. Putin shows no particular attachment to the Syrian leader, but he doesn't seem to see much point in replacing him with someone who might turn out to be worse, and in any case, he doesn't believe Syria is ready for a Western-style democracy.
Putin has certainly established the market. If he senses a threat to his newfound global influence or to Assad, he can use the two remaining military bases to rapidly expand the Kremlin's military presence.
He also determined the public relations strategy.
"If the ceasefire turns into a lasting peace, it will automatically be considered a winner," says Carnegie's Baunov. "But if war breaks out again, he can always say: 'You see, when we were there, everyone was working in peace, and when we left, war broke out.'"
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