Between the Poles: Brazil - the conflict between nature and people

Brazilian politics is not in the focus of the European or domestic public, but the elections that will take place today, apart from being important for the largest Latin American country, can be indicative for the whole world.

Each of us has some prejudices related to Brazil, and from them arise prosaic dilemmas: is that country really full of rhythm, does everyone know how to dance, is it safe on the streets, what is that other and different continent anyway? In Brazil's largest city, Sao Paulo (and the largest in the southern and western hemispheres), you will immediately be directed to Paulista Avenue, the main artery of the city. There are also MASP (Museum of Art) and street musicians, processions, as well as headquarters of Petrobras, Citigroup, Itaua, restaurants, small parks, shopping centers. A walk along the Champs-Élysées of South America, then going down to Ibirapuera Park, where handsome Brazilian men and women jog, play football and volleyball, and on a huge plateau designed by Oskar Niemeyer, young people paint, perform tricks on skateboards and play - means the fulfillment of preconceptions about Brazil. Add a couple of caipirinhas to that "Brazilian day" and you've fulfilled all the preconceptions, but learned nothing. Yes, Brazilians have rhythm, they play football well in all the streets and parks, they are incredibly diverse in terms of race, physiognomy and attitude, they are socially very liberal, and Sao Paulo is a cosmopolitan city with the highest GDP in the southern hemisphere.

But that's only part of the story. Another picture is provided by the historical part of the city called Se. Colonial buildings, pimps, dealers, resigned sellers on dilapidated stands and an incredibly devastating number of homeless people, that's the other picture, not to say Stulić's - Pedro, and that's Brazil. Walking in the evening means clutching your wallet and phone, regularly turning behind you and avoiding the area north of Sea, Krakolendjija - crack country. Residents of the city are convinced that Se was deliberately left to crime and filth, so that the price of real estate and city properties would fall, which would then enable a cheap buyout and future gentrification of the area. Only when you combine Se and Paulista, you get a real impression of urban Brazil, a country that has one of the largest economic stratifications in the world, and the second largest concentration of property in the hands of a small number of people (the first is Paraguay, where property is held by businessmen from Brazil).

The double image of Brazil is reflected in the presidential elections in a different way. On one side is the candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) Fernando Hadad, a descendant of Lebanese Orthodox immigrants, doctor of philosophy and former (they say successful) mayor of Sao Paulo. His main opponent is Zaire Bolsonaro from the Social Liberal Party (PSL), a hard-line former military captain, a conservative and one of the few politicians in Brazil who speaks with sympathy about the military dictatorship during which at least 60.000 people experienced political persecution. In addition to them, there are six more candidates who mostly represent the center, but according to the latest polls, they don't have much chance of making it to the second round.

The course of the campaign itself is full of unusual events. The PT candidate was former president Lula da Silva, still the country's most popular politician, who is currently in prison on corruption charges. Lula is accused of accepting an apartment from a construction company as a bribe, even though the property is neither in his name nor in the name of anyone from his family, nor has he ever been seen near it. Few were surprised when he was sentenced to nine years in prison - his supporters because they believe he is being persecuted politically, and his opponents because they have no doubts about the charge. His party has been campaigning since April, during the court process, and during the period of appeals to international institutions, including when he went to prison. When the Supreme Electoral Court decided on August 31 that Lula could not participate in the election race (although even then he had by far the highest support of over 35 percent of respondents in the polls), PT pushed Fernando Haddad to the fore. Despite the fact that they were aware that their candidate had a minimal chance of participating in the race, the PT tried in every way to nominate Lulu (according to them the best person to run the country), and only then offered another candidate. That is why Hadad started later than the others, but he quickly brought his initial support of six percent from the beginning of September to 21 percent according to the latest IBOPE survey, while in the case of a second round with Bolsonaro, polls say he would win. This example could be instructive for domestic politicians prone to tactics and rhetoric about "certainty of success" - sometimes you have to go to the end with what and who you believe in, because Lula's image has been largely transferred to the new candidate and the slogan of Haddad e Lula - Hadad and Lula.

Bolsonaro had a no less interesting campaign. He chose an army general as his deputy, which immediately showed in which direction he was thinking. The media is generally not in favor of him and called him a populist, a thug, a criminal, but he also received support from some popular people, such as the football player Ronaldinho. After he chose economist Paolo Guedeš as his associate, a devotee of privatization, many wealthy businessmen tacitly supported his campaign. Reuters reports that Bolsonaro is the silent favorite of the business elite, who fear Haddad, an opponent of privatization and austerity measures. However, due to his bad image in the public, many do not dare to support him directly. In early September, Bolsonaro was attacked at a rally and ended up with serious injuries to his internal organs, which prevented him from campaigning, speaking and appearing in public until the end of the first round of elections. Despite this, he increased his support and according to the IBOPE survey jumped from 22 to 32 percent of support. Just before the conclusion of this text, tens of thousands of women protested against him in the Elenao (not him) campaign. Thus, he is the candidate most often viewed negatively by voters and it will be difficult for him to win in the second round, but if 2016 has taught us anything, nothing should be taken for granted.

Thus, Sao Paulo is a city of two worlds which, like the whole of Brazil, represents a divided society. Stratification into rich and poor, right-wing and left-wing, urban and rural, will not end after these elections. If we could now climb the Edifício Itália, a huge building in the middle of the Sea, we would see the people of Paulista and Krakolendgia. Both of them at the polls want someone who will bring them the Brazilian motto - Ordem e Progresso (Order and Progress). These two candidates seem to be breaking down the motto - Bolsonaro presents himself as the candidate of order, and Hadad of progress. How much it corresponds to reality remains to be seen. The last two years have brought many blows to the PT, the most powerful Brazilian party in the 21st century. The eventual victory of Haddad would slow down these events, but not stop them, especially before Bolsonaro's supporters started talking about doubts about the electoral process, and even the non-recognition of the elections. The PT's return to power could lead to a new "Pink Wave", the victory of leftist candidates in South America, given the victory of Lopez-Obrador in Mexico. Bolsonaro's victory would only split the society and, with additional economic stagnation, could lead to regressive measures, and perhaps to the return of the military dictatorship. Nevertheless, he is a man on the scale of Donald Trump, the president of the USA, and he would certainly strengthen right-wing populism around the world. He almost certainly wins the first round and remains to attract centrist voters. The position in BRICS is also at stake. Brazil is a lesson for the future, for Europe and the world. If Brazil's circumstances are transferred to the old continent, it would mean that the time of the "centrists", the third time, the so-called, is definitely passing. moderate. None of those candidates are even close to the second round (in fact, most are closer to statistical error). Whether Europe - if it had to choose - would choose Hadad or Bolsonaro, whether it would follow the story of order or progress, remains to be seen. Brazil is still a country between two poles, where both nature and people collide.

Huge space for the "Brazilian Trump"

"All this confusion and uncertainty has created a huge space for the fascist member of Congress, former army captain, Jair Bolsonaro, who is often called the 'Brazilian Trump' by the Western media, although he is much closer to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and even Egypt's Abdel El-Sisi according to his adherence to military rule, random police violence, torture and executions. Common sense dictates that Bolsonaro's 20 percent of the vote will be enough to get through to the second round, but that high percentages of negative sentiment toward him will see him lose to anyone (similar to Marine Le Pen in France). In the era of Trump and Brexit, such an opinion has been misplaced, and even if Bolsonaro does not enter the presidential palace this year, he will have serious influence, together with his three also fascist-minded sons in state bodies, one of whom is currently in Congress and the other on the way to the Federal Senate".

Glenn Greenwald, "The Intercept"

"Amidst political violence, a persistent economic crisis and talk of a military coup, Haddad - currently second in the polls - is a candidate of the moderate left who will clash with the forces of the right who do not value democracy. Haddad, a former professor at the University of Sao Paulo and an expert on Marxist theories, is often criticized for his aloofness and detachment from the people. For example, he lost the 2016 municipal election to João Doria, a Brazilian playboy who impersonates Trump.

Many on the left are also against him for the way he dealt with anti-corruption protests in June 2013. Also, unlike Lula and other historical PT leaders, Hadad does not come from a mass working class movement. Haddad is a product of the PT that ruled Brazil, not the party that once inspired the radical left around the world. However, it may be up to him to maintain Brazilian democracy".

Benjamin Fogel - “Jacobin”

“The impression of the 2018 elections in Brazil is one of fear. It is present in parties, on the Internet, in campaigns and in the media. Fear heightens our doubts and contextualizes this historical moment. The electoral conflict is in the violence of words and images, in advertisements and in the news, even in interviews for the Globo network. The culmination of this violence is the attempt to kill the candidate Žair Bolsonaro. Tensions throw the political debate out of balance, while death threats scare street campaigns".

Maria Helena Weber, "Brasil de Fato"

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