Non-interference in the affairs of other countries has been a principle of Chinese foreign policy for decades. This means that China does not interfere in conflicts and expects the same from other countries. In the case of Ukraine, that principle becomes a problem because it goes against China's central political interest: maintaining good relations with Russia.
"Sino-Russian relations are currently the best in history," Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out back in March, at a press conference at the end of the National Congress.
"We trust and support each other, and the two presidents share a deep friendship." China needs Russia - as an ally against the West.
"Russia is seen as an important partner, trusted and expected to support - and of course you don't want to embarrass such a partner"
The feeling that it is simply being pressured by the West from all sides, especially the US, is of great importance for Beijing's foreign policy, says Sven Gareis, an expert on China from the University of Münster, in an interview with Deutsche Welle.
"Russia is seen as an important partner, trusted and expected to support - and of course you don't want to embarrass such a partner."
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However, Beijing also wants to stick to its principle of non-interference. It is no wonder that China is keeping aloof when it comes to the legality of the referendum in Crimea: Deputy Foreign Minister Li Baodong at a press conference in Beijing even twice avoided answering the question of whether China would recognize the referendum and its outcome. "We hope that all parties will keep a cool head and look for a political solution. "Further escalation should be avoided," Lee said. And that was all.
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Beijing's support for its strategic friend in Moscow reached its limit in the UN Security Council: on the eve of the Crimean referendum, during the vote on the resolution, Russia vetoed it, while China abstained.
Western diplomats unofficially say it was a "slap in the face" for Moscow, as China usually follows Russia's vote. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Luxembourg, Jean Asselborn, who currently chairs the Security Council, specifically praised China's rejection of any unilateral move concerning the change of territory and which calls for the formation of an international Contact Group.
China's problems with its own minorities
Beijing also has strong domestic political reasons to be cautious. "China cannot support the referendum because we have our own problems," says Chen Xinming. Those problems are Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan. If China accepts the referendum in Crimea, then why can't the same rules apply to those regions on the territory of the People's Republic, which are also advocating for independence?
Beijing and sanctions against Russia
While Beijing struggles with contradictions at the political level, possible Western economic sanctions against Russia could benefit it. "Russia would move further and further away from Europe and the winner of the crisis would be China," said the chairman of the Committee for the East of the German Economy, Ekhard Kordes for the magazine "Focus".
The People's Republic is already the largest buyer of Russian oil and would certainly have nothing against it. "However, I don't think China is driven by short-term interests," says Sven Gareis. Beijing is probably more concerned about long-term stability in the region.
And the Chinese economy depends on good relations with Western governments. For this reason, China's balancing act regarding Ukraine in the coming weeks could be even more difficult: at the end of March, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be a guest in several Western European countries. It is very possible that then he will have to say whose side he is on.
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