When Russian President Vladimir Putin sits down today with his American counterpart Donald Trump in Helsinki, he will achieve practically everything he could realistically hope for.
All he needs to do for the long-awaited meeting with Trump to be successful is to avoid further friction and symbolically end Western efforts to isolate Russia over its 2014 operations against Ukraine, interference in the 2016 US presidential election and other matters that US officials have described as "Malignant activities" around the world, writes the "New York Times".
"If Trump says, 'Let's put the past behind us, because we have to rule the world,' that's exactly what Moscow needs from this meeting," said Vladimir Frolov, an independent analyst of foreign policy issues from Moscow.
As with all negotiations – it's all about timing, and Putin has been gaining a lot of momentum lately. He arrives in Helsinki after the finals of the successfully organized World Cup in football and will meet with the American president who spent last Sunday criticizing NATO allies and undermining British Prime Minister Theresa May, whom he met in London.
Even the indictment against 12 Russian military intelligence officers, which was disclosed on Friday in Washington and which led the representatives of the Democrats to demand that the meeting in Helsinki be canceled, could be of help to Putin, the "New York Times" writes.
According to the paper, he could fuel the conspiracy theory that has long been accepted by both the White House and the Kremlin that the so-called "deep state" ("deep state" in English - influential people who represent a kind of shadow government, who are believed to control official policy) determined to sabotage Trump from reaching out to Russia. Shortly before the indictments were announced, Trump said of the investigation that it was a "set up witch hunt" that "is really ruining the US relationship with Russia."
Whatever the outcome of the talks, the Russian president, thanks to the Kremlin's firm control over all national TV channels, will be able to present the meeting with Trump as proof that Russia is returning from exile and should be re-admitted to the G7 group of industrialized countries.
Putin firmly believes that real leaders are not indecisive. They make deals on their own without jangly aides and overly pedantic diplomats, just as he and Trump will when they meet in Helsinki. Only translators will attend the meeting.
Still, while Putin may dream of a repeat of the 1945 Yalta conference when Roosevelt, Stalin and Churchill agreed to divide the world into spheres of influence, Russian officials have made it clear they don't expect any grand deal to happen in Helsinki. They are also well aware that no matter what Trump agrees with Putin, it still has to go through the American establishment, which is deeply skeptical of Russia.
"We are aware to what extent the American establishment is hostage to stereotypes and to what extent it is exposed to the strongest anti-Russian pressure at home," said Kremlin spokesman Dimitriy Peskov on Thursday in response to Senator John Kennedy's comment that "Putin cannot be trusted" and that cooperation with the Russian to the authorities such as "collaboration with the mafia".
Despite their similar approach to leadership, few believe that Putin and Trump will achieve any concrete results beyond vaguely worded statements promising to continue cooperation and not interfere in each other's domestic affairs.
Putin cannot expect the lifting of sanctions, which require congressional approval, nor that the US will quickly recognize Crimea as part of Russia. The presidents will also discuss Syria, particularly Iran's presence there, arms control and the conflict in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014 when Russia sent troops and weapons to help separatists there, writes the New York Times.
Ivan Kurila, an expert on Russian-American relations at the European University in St. Petersburg, believes that Putin can realistically expect from Trump only an agreement for the two countries to reopen the consulates that were closed last year and for some Russian and American diplomats to return to their positions after were previously expelled in the reciprocal action of the two countries. Infobox (Box): Trump achieved what the USSR was never Moscow sees everything that encourages division within the USA or between America and its allies as a victory, according to an analysis of the American newspaper. By sending hackers, campaigning fake news and supporting ultra-right populists in Europe, Putin has long been trying to break the West and put an end to the established geopolitical order. However, Trump, with his regular attacks on European leaders and launching a trade war against some of America's closest allies, is now practically doing the work for him. Trump's tirades about NATO allocations and his fury over the EU's foreign trade policy have caught even Russia's critics off guard, who have watched Putin and his Soviet predecessors for years try in vain to undermine the transatlantic alliance. "We are witnessing something surprising, something that even the USSR failed to achieve: the division between the US and Western Europe. It didn't work then, but it seems that it is working now with Trump," Tatiana Parhalina, president of the Russian Association for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, said in a program recently broadcast on state television. Infobox (Box): The difference between real and Twitter politics Trump said that out of all the Russian leaders, Putin could be the "easiest" to deal with. However, few in both the US and Russia share his opinion. "Vladimir Putin will really teach this inexperienced politician a lesson," assesses Sergei Mironov, the leader of Just Russia, a nominally opposition party that always represents the Kremlin's views. As he said during a show on state television on Sunday, the Russian president will "demonstrate the difference between real and Twitter politics."
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