Despite the difficulties, the "Islamic State" (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - ISIL) is close to defeat in Syria, with its caliphate about to disappear, but the question arises of the responsibility of the West in the development of this terrorist organization, whether it is even possible to destroy its bloody ideology completely and whether its eventual end also means peace in Syria, the world media write.
"Jihadism" caused by the West
Financial Times (The Financial Times) writes that the recent "end of the caliphate that only a few years ago controlled a third of Syria and Iraq and threatened the region, is an opportunity to think about how to change the Western foreign policy that reliably gave rise to jihadism".
The paper recalls that modern jihadism received its first support from Western powers at the end of the Cold War, explaining how the Mujahideen, who fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 11s, paved the way for Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda to wage a godless war and the September XNUMX attacks. "But in this century, the Cold War cannot excuse the staggering amount of mistakes the West has made," wrote David Gardner, the Foreign Policy Editor of the Financial Times, who pointed out that the most obvious example of mistakes was the US invasion of Iraq.
The invasion and occupation shook the region, catapulting to power the Shiites - who are a minority within Islam, and the majority in Iraq - who are still carrying out sectarian bloodshed in the country, writes the paper stating that the future of the region is actually a hostage of the wars sponsored by the Shiites from Iran and the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia. , as well as the frozen relations between Israel and Iran, which have been worsened by US President Donald Trump (Trump).
On the other hand, the paper states, at the time when Obama was worried about Afghanistan and Iraq, Syria turned into their copy. "In a deadly cocktail of adventurism and hesitancy, the US and Europe have cheered on Syrian, mostly Sunni rebels against the Assad regime by promising - though not providing - the means to topple it. Instead, they contracted to arm the opposition with allies such as Wahhabi Saudi Arabia.” The Financial Times concludes that all of this ultimately turned Syria into a magnet for jihadist extremists - where Assad's tyranny persists.
The ideology of the broken caliphate
The Wall Street Journal (The Wall Street Journal) writes that adherence to the ideology of the Islamic State calls into question the totality of its defeat. As the group loses territory and less committed members leave, a hardline core remains in certain countries — including Syria, Iraq, Nigeria, the Philippines, Libya and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula — posing a daunting challenge because of the possibility that "a brutal strain of extremism could spread to the next generation".
While most of the militants who pose an immediate threat have either been killed or captured and imprisoned, there is no plan for dealing with women and children who may be vital to the Islamic State's long-term survival, the Wall Street Journal reports. The paper reminds that more than a year after neighboring Iraq declared victory over the Islamic State, families of militants are being held in camps similar to open-air prisons. There, the newspaper said, many mothers do not allow their children to attend school because the curriculum is not in line with their radical beliefs.
Highlighting how some officials have warned that families will serve as an incubator for ISIS, the paper reports a warning that the US commander in the fight against Islamic State, Gen. Joseph Votel, delivered before the House Armed Services Committee this month. Claiming that the surrender of thousands of fighters and their followers in Baguz was in fact a "calculated decision" by a group that wanted to preserve its capabilities, General Votel said it was a serious generational problem that, if not properly addressed, would sow seeds. future violent extremism.
"They have all adopted the terrorist ideology," said Abdulkarim Omar, head of foreign relations for the autonomous administration in the Kurdish region of northeastern Syria. "If they are not rehabilitated and reintegrated into their societies, they will all be ticking time bombs," reports the Wall Street Journal.
Bitter pill about defeat
Brussels portal Politico (Politico) reports a comment by Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, who claims that ISIS may never be completely defeated, and that "that bitter pill is ready to be swallowed by some, including Donald Trump - unless he is truly deluded about the defeat of the group."
Just two weeks after Trump triumphantly declared the 100 percent defeat of the ISIL caliphate, his national security adviser, John Bolton, admitted that "the threat from ISIL will last" and that this explains why he will now remain in Syria a small "observation military force".
Then senior administration officials said 200 US troops would remain in northeastern Syria as part of a "multinational observation force," while an additional 200 would remain at al-Tanf, a camp near the Iraqi border, to monitor Iran's behavior.
On the other hand, if Trump did consider keeping US troops engaged in the anti-ISIL operation in Syria - although this has not been confirmed - it would be solely in the hope that he would be able to persuade European allies to replace the 1.600 or so US troops who would be withdrew, which according to the author of the text will not happen so easily - because Britain and France are not ready to fill the vacuum.
Politiko writes that it is a fact that ISIS exists despite the US president's claims to the contrary. In Iraq, ISIL attacks are increasing month by month and in February there were an average of four attacks per day, while in Baghouz, in neighboring Syria, the last battle line (which is just over a quarter of a square kilometer) has barely changed after five weeks of fighting. At this point, no force in either Syria or Iraq is capable of effectively containing or defeating this persistent threat, Lister says.
He adds that declaring victory and withdrawing at this moment is not only naive but also dangerous, and that leaving ISIL either with allies or with opponents is actually neglecting the duty to protect American interests. "Long-term military operations abroad have undoubtedly become deeply unpopular. However, leaving the territory in Syria guarantees the survival of ISIL, making the revival of this deeply dangerous terrorist actor almost certain, which will inevitably threaten regional and global security again," states Charles Lister's comment as reported by Politico.
Three new civil wars in Syria?
The five-year war against ISIL in Syria is coming to an end with the Islamic State caliphate virtually gone - but three new civil wars are on the horizon in that country, the magazine suggests. Foreign policy (Foreign Policy).
The three new conflicts are taking place in three de facto independent areas "whose boundaries are becoming clearer as the smoke of previous battles clears," the magazine says. The largest area, about 60 percent of Syria's territory, is under the control of the Assad regime and is guaranteed by Russia; about 30 percent of Syria's territory east of the Euphrates is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mostly composed of US-backed Kurdish fighters; while about 10 percent is under the control of the Turks and their allied Sunni Islamists in Idlib province.
The most fragile of the three entities, in terms of international arrangements and relations with external powers, is the Turkish-Sunni region, the southern part of which is completely ruled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an offshoot of the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda, according to Foreign Policy. That area is protected from the ground offensive of Assad's forces by the unreliable Sochi agreement reached in September last year by the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Although it does not appear that a ground offensive will be launched soon, the provinces of Idlib and Hama are under daily artillery attacks.
Bashar al-AssadFurther north, in the former Kurdish canton of Afron, the Turks and their allies are facing a little-discussed insurgency backed by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), Foreign Policy said, citing a report by Bellingcat that claimed from the end of March 2018 to January, there were 220 attacks on the forces of Turkey and its allies, with around 100 people killed.
The SDF- and US-controlled area east of the Euphrates has also seen the development of an externally-led internal insurgency, the magazine added, citing the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights that 236 SDF fighters, civilians, oil workers and officials had been killed since August 2018 in incidents that were not associated with the conflict with the Islamic State. The SDF blames Turkey for those actions, as well as for earlier killings of prominent Kurdish officials, according to Foreign Policy, but warns that other perpetrators are possible, including the Assad regime or the Islamic State.
The safest area is under the control of the regime, says Forin Polisi, but even there there is simmering dissatisfaction with various groups that have influence over those territories. There are local individuals loyal to Iran, as well as foreign armed groups such as the Russian military police and the Lebanese Hezbollah, as well as various rival security structures of the Syrian state. "The open war in Syria is mostly over. Peace, however, still remains a distant hope," concludes Forin Polisi.
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