The death of Baghdadi is not the end of the Islamic State

As a new order takes shape in the Middle East, the Islamic State remains a real threat to the troubled region and beyond.
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Al Baghdadi, Photo: Reuters
Al Baghdadi, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.
Ažurirano: 29.10.2019. 09:08h

For more than five years, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was the most wanted man on the planet - the man who turned the insurgency in Iraq into a terrorist campaign that changed the course of history.

While the Islamic State was at its peak, Baghdadi managed to destroy the authorities in Iraq and Syria and question the borders in the entire Middle East, and at the same time to remove the most powerful intelligence services and armies, according to the British "Guardian".

As black flags flew, the region fell into darkness. The Islamic State conquered one city after another, imposing a ruthless seventh-century ideology on those who dared to stay, or failed to escape.

Although United States President Donald Trump can rightly say that IS no longer controls any major territory, there have been clear indications in recent months that the cells have begun to regroup.

baghdadi
The last hours of the leader of the Islamic State

Security in eastern Syria is fragile to say the least, as are the overall policies in the region, the "Guardian" states, adding that the US decision to abandon the Kurds has only worsened the situation.

The multi-year war has been won by foreign actors, national armies are left in disarray, and weak leadership offers no guarantees of justice or reconciliation. The losses are unlikely to be recovered any time soon, and instead a new regional order is taking shape that underscores the chaos left behind by the Islamic State. New zones of influence are being set up and there is now a real chance that some of the borders in the region, created after World War II, will be redrawn along ethnic religious lines.

In such circumstances, the killing of Baghdadi is a severe blow to the group, but the Islamic State and its ideology remain a great danger.

In the east of Syria, large groups of IS members have managed to reorganize in the last six months, and new extremist training camps have begun to spring up.

In Iraq, IS has returned to the guerrilla tactics it was once known for. According to Reuters, the Pentagon announced in January that IS is recovering faster in Iraq than in Syria. Analysts estimated earlier this year that 2000 active IS members are now operating in Iraq.

There have been no major attacks in Egypt over the past year, but minor incidents continue and the army is conducting a campaign against Islamic extremists, mainly in the Sinai Peninsula.

IS has been carrying out attacks in Saudi Arabia against security forces and minority Shiite Muslims since authorities crushed an al-Qaeda insurgency more than a decade ago.

Baghdadi called for attacks against Saudi Arabia when the kingdom joined the US coalition in attacks against his group. In speeches, he often used derogatory names when talking about the rulers in Riyadh.

In Yemen, the Islamic State's biggest opponent is Al Qaeda, and both groups are fighting the Shiite Houthis, whom they consider heretics. IS has claimed responsibility for several attacks in southern Yemen but has never controlled a large territory in that country. Experts believe that Al Qaeda, with deeper and older tribal ties, poses a greater threat in the war-torn country.

Islamic State's responsibility has not always been proven, but even if the link is ideological rather than operational, the group remains a threat in many countries, particularly in Southeast Asia.

Authorities in the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, home to some of the best-organized Islamic extremists in Asia, said yesterday they were on high alert for revenge attacks by IS loyalists, including attacks by homegrown terrorists radicalized by IS's powerful internet propaganda.

These countries fear that IS supporters from the region and fighters fleeing Iraq and Syria will try to take advantage of porous borders, lawlessness and find a foothold there.

Forums used by Islamists were flooded yesterday with defiant messages about Baghdadi's death, according to Reuters. "Jihad never stops, even when our caliph dies," wrote one user.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison also said that Baghdadi's death is by no means the end of IS. "It's a monster with multiple heads... you cut off one, and another one grows right away," he said.

After the news of Baghdadi's death, most world leaders called for caution and the continuation of the fight against extremists, and analysts remind that the USA underestimated Baghdadi in 2004 when they had him in prison and released him because he managed to convince them that he was a factor of stability. It turned out to be quite the opposite, the "Guardian" states and adds that the IS leader lived and died as one of the most brutal and influential figures of the modern era.

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